Wk 17 preview

2014 BCS Computer Rankings

Morning all,

Due to popular demand/complaint/inquiry, we at commissioner headquarters have decided to reveal the computer rankings published back in week 15 of the NFFL season.

The criteria was two-folder- first, I assigned each team the movie that best summarized their season.  I focused on the late nineties to keep it simple but some films did sneak out of that time block and some of the following might questionably be called ‘films’.  Tough shit.  Then, I ranked them based on just how much I enjoyed them.

Without further ado…

12. Nemo- Twister

A tough, tough year for Nemo as no matter how much he chased it, the fantasy gods responded with another cruel twist of fate- by the end of the season, not much remained that resembled the original landscape.

11. Thompson- Home Alone

Like the antagonists, this team endured a ton of punishment- the injury to Newton being most disappointing.  The best that Thompson can do here is to hope that there is no sequel.

10. Malinn- The Sixth Sense

I have to admit that I barely had a clue about what was going on throughout this team’s season but, in the end, turns out the team’s playoff chances were dead all along.

9. Tighe- Star Wars, Episode I

The much anticipated sequel to last year’s championship winner turned out to be a big disappointment.

8. Arbo- Jurassic Park

Hey guys, I have an idea- let’s resurrect Brett’s extinct team using some of the leftover DNA and hand the reins over to Arbo.  What could possibly go wrong?

7. Concannon- The Replacements

A fairly well regarded team saw the disappearance of the overrated star QB (Romo) coincide with what was surely the end of all playoff hopes.  But, the team was still able to sneak into the playoffs behind the washed up arm of the former college star (Sanchez).

6. Curran- Jerry Maguire

After leaving quite a few dollars on the table in the auction (SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!) and being let down by the pretty boy first round pick Tannehill, Curran can watch on with pride as the many rookie players that he believed in begin to show true NFL promise.

5. DFlam- The Real Slim Shady Video

Just a shambles the entire way- no one knew which player would make a fool of himself next.  Will a real quarterback please stand up?

4. Lee- Liar Liar

Where to begin…

3. TMac- Gladiator

TMac, usurped of a league crown by Lee early on, vows to get revenge and defend the concept of the ‘old league’ by battling face to face with the new emperor.  A valiant effort wins him the respect of all but ultimately his squad dies trying- at least Lee, too, was ultimately vanquished.

2. Sean- Jingle All The Way

A farce of a season which saw a number of overmatched owners waste considerable time and energy pursuing the mythical Turboman- Carlos Hyde- Sean may have cost himself a shot a championship by refusing to fork him over for what was rumored to be several first round draft picks and a minute alone with Malinn’s liquor cabinet.

1. Wiseman- Shawshank Redemption

Wrongfully accused of being a good team and living that lie in the prison of the league standings all season, Wiseman finally gained his freedom by crawling through 66 points of shit-smelling foulness in the first qualifying playoff round. 

Hey kids…

The NFFL 2014 season winds down to a conclusion as founding fathers Tighe and Concannon square off for the right to receive 500 poorly constructed trade offers from Lee this offseason.

As usual, week 17 presents a series of playing time questions that generally go unasked during the bulk of the NFL season- who will sit, who will play, etc- and the impact on fantasy matchups can be significant.  Fortunately, NFL teams tend to play hard despite being eliminated and this year's most likely candidates for playoff-rest (Indianapolis, New England) do not see any star names on these two resilient rosters.

Broadly speaking, these two rosters feature opposing approaches and those differences have only become more exaggerated over the month of December.  Tighe's squad is a classic stars and scrubs approach- Brees, Rodgers, Lacy, the Thomas Twins- while Concannon counters with a deeper unit that includes a league record fifteen (approximately) flex level running backs. 

Key games on the schedule in the context of this matchup include Denver-Oakland (Thomas x2 vs. Murray) and Green Bay-Detroit (Rodgers/Lacy v Bell).  If Mason is benched due to a shaky matchup with Seattle, add Indianapolis to that list (Moncrief v Herron).

Key Players

Tighe- Pick a Thomas…big games this season have been driven by big Denver performances and week 17 should be no exception.  Manning has looked shaky of late and the Thomas twins have suffered- look for a classic Manning performance against one of the worst teams in the league to get the talking heads yapping and Tighe's point total rolling.

Concannon- Flacco.  Subject to a trade between these two squads in mid-season, Flacco put up a major stinker last  week and a repeat showing could turn a 'consistent' team into a mediocre one quickly.  With Baltimore needing a playoff push against an eliminated opponent, I like his odds to get back on track before having his rights shipped to Thompson in the offseason.

Prediction?

As long as everyone gets equal playing time and a trophy afterward, I'll be happy.  Would be nice to scoop up that one pick, though.

What next?

I am going to try and get everything done ASAP this year in terms of being ready to auction next summer.  That means numbers, getting rules down on paper, etc.  Obviously, I say I’ll do this every year, so be skeptical, but I think I have a good setup this time around.

Any ideas or suggestions- send my way.

Any potentially helpful documents- my way, please.

Rule changes- let me know- I love discussing rule changes.

Tim

Xmas Special- 2013 Rookie Draft review

NFFL Blog- Christmas Edition

 

Good morning all,

 

In what I suspect is not nearly as much of an annual tradition as I think it is- the annual Christmas day blog post!

 

Congratulations first to Arbo, winner of his first league Superbowl after returning to us after a multi-year exile.  His squad cruised against #1 seed Lee despite letdown showings from star men Luck and Murray to finalize his stamp on what was quite a strange season by league standards.

 

No need for Lee to hang his head- his team had its issues throughout the campaign but was able to overcome many of those through deft management and consistent big games from star players.  Going into next season, Bell will form the nucleus of what should be another strong championship contender.

 

I hinted last week that we would do a (self-indulgent) run down of the computer rankings from two weeks back.  Whoops…left that stuff at my apartment.  We will need to settle for one of my standbys…rookie draft lookback.  Given the value of Bell in this league at the moment, let's go with 2013.

 

NFFL Rookie Draft Power Rankings- 2013

12. Concannon- top pick- Franklin, RB (round 2)…worst pick- Lattimore, RB (2nd round)

Perhaps a minor asterisk deserved here- a flurry of trades saw Concannon pick up extra picks in 2014 plus veterans Witten and Hillman.  Still, starting with the #2 overall pick in such a strong year and ending up with Ryan Nassib as the only potential 2015 keeper is a failure.

Franklin's memorable week 3 cameo in Cincinnati justifies his high selection- the promising back saw a career cut short by neck injury.  Lattimore's promising career was also cut short, in college, and thus the gamble here did not pay off.  Randle and Polk have shown signs of life this season while Nassib could take over for a fading Eli Manning at some point.  But no value, no real keepers here.

 

11. TMac- Top pick- Hunter, WR (round 4)…worst pick- Austin, WR (#4 overall)

With two top four selections, TMac appeared in prime position to solidify a contender for the next two to three years.  Instead, he ends up with prime bust Austin and Denver's disappointing Montee Ball at #3.  I am not quite ready to give up on Austin but he might be a new team away from being used effectively as a fantasy option.  Ball- we just have not seen it.

Looking back, Lacy at #5 and Hopkins at #7 would have been preferred.

Trading expertise allowed TMac to package the promising Hunter with a #1 pick to get Charles.  Although Charles did not help deliver the title, the trade was the right move ten times out of ten and at the very least provides some value from this class.

Some interesting late names here- Kelce, Kerwynn Williams- who have popped up with value this season bumps up the grade a slight bit.

 

10. Sean- top pick- Terrance Williams, WR (3rd round)…worst pick- Hernandez, TE (6th round)

Not a terrible return in his rookie year- Charles Johnson has come around after landing in Minnesota and EJ Manual was both serviceable in year one and a key trade chip in year two. 

Still, some other alternatives in round 1 would have proved better building blocks and the Hernandez selection in round 6 shows a clear lack of understanding regarding the basics of both the legal and keeper systems. 

Grabbing McCoy and Orton in the last two rounds was more like it- high upside backup QBs behind fragile or shaky starters.

 

9. Curran- top pick- Glennon (round 3)…worst pick- Sudfeld, TE (round 3)

A fairly forgettable draft day for Curran.  His first pick was at #22 (Da'Rick Rogers) but getting Glennon three picks later was quite a move. 

Understanding the Sudfeld pick is the key to understanding the Father Coffee draft day mantra- get up early, write the Patriots names on a napkin, and open a beer.  Sometimes it does OK (Blount came aboard two weeks later) and sometimes you get Sudfeld.

 

8. Tighe- top pick- Keenan Allen, WR (2nd round)…worst pick- Dobson, WR (9th overall)

Allen was a terrific round 2 choice and provided almost historically strong rookie year production.  A slow start saw him shipped out in year two but late signs of life make it clear that Allen has top-20 WR potential for years to come.

Dobson was a classic NFFL choice- high upside Patriot a few spots early.  On the other hand, easy to look back with 20-20 hindsight as this pick was regarded as a solid choice at the time.  Dobson might still come around but at this point has not provided much fantasy value for the investment.

 

7. Nemo- top pick- Murray, RB (3rd round)…worst pick- Goodwin, WR (4th round)

Tricky draft here- a very sneaky good draft but no star power and no real performances, yet, to confirm the potential that is here.  Knile Davis got things going in round 2 and he has been a strong performer in limited roles.  Taylor could be a breakout guy in Arizona next season while Murray has the inside track on a workhorse role in Oakland.

Jordan Reed, Jacoby Jones, even Picks-Patrick…not bad in rounds 5-6-7.  Nemo's draft looks like it has the most potential to move up or down and a lot of it will come down to health (Reed) and performance (RB) in the next two seasons.

 

6. DFlam- top pick- Zac Stacy, RB (8th overall)…worst pick- Barkley, QB (10th overall)

Tough call here for Flam as Stacy fell apart in year two and played a major role in a season that fell far short of expectations.  However, his rookie year surge was remarkable and provided good return on the investment.

Patterson high in round 2 was also a promising player but his start is still waiting to shine.  I like his odds to figure things out, albeit slowly.  The rest of the draft was unremarkable.

Barkley provides the point of discussion here. I do not think he was necessarily a bad idea, just poorly timed, as he probably would have slid into the middle of round two, at least.  With Geno still on the board and no QBs taken in round 2, Barkley was just as much a reach as any player taken.  Being beaten out by Sanchez in year two for the backup job has many now considering him a total NFL bust.

 

5. Wiseman- Top pick- Bernard, RB (#1 overall)…Worst Pick- Wilson, QB (round 3)

A fairly ho-hum draft class from Wiseman in his first season.  The #1 pick was gifted to him in the final draft lottery ever involving the top selection and the result was Bernard, perhaps the safest choice in a draft with many appealing options but no sure #1 pick.

Wilson was a high third round pick, no sure thing, but he was essentially out of the league when cut in training camp after his rookie pre-season.  Tough to bounce back from that one…

Other picks were forgettable- Eifert has been held back by inconsistent QB play, Bailey is likely a reserve WR.  Wiseman may also have only made six picks in this draft, underlining his inexperience and the league's general disorganization.

 

4. Thompson- top pick- Lacy, RB (#5 overall)…worst pick- Woods, WR (2nd round)

Not much to add here- Lacy is a strong keeper, Woods was a bit of a whiff in round 2 but nothing unusual to miss in that part of a draft.

Nothing notable late on- Marquess Wilson was a sixth round pick and has intrigue for the future but with the QB situation in total upheaval in Chicago, I am not necessarily excited to roster the player at this moment.

 

3. Malinn- top pick- Jennings, RB (6th round)…worst pick- Ace Sanders, WR (4th round)

Not much to work with here- Malinn picked first in the middle of round two (Wheaton).  Jennings turned out to be a pretty good late pickup- his performance earned a big offseason contract with the Giants.  Stills was a nice touch in round 4.

 

Like with Brett, coming up- just a good example here of avoiding bad picks- but no real star power to move him any higher in the rankings.

 

2. Brett- top pick- Hopkins, WR (7th overall)…worst pick- Landry Jones, QB (round 4)

In his final rookie draft, Brett provided a master class in drafting for value and avoiding busts.  Hopkins is rounding into a stud WR prospect and highlights the top end of the class.  However, the depth here is astonishing and provides the bulk of the high grade.

QB Geno Smith has proven usable in two shaky real-life seasons while Michael is a tantalizing RB prospect scooped up at the end of round 1.  Brett returned in round 4 to grab Denard Robinson (traded this year for a #1) and Zach Ertz.  Rounds 6 and 7 saw Riley Cooper and Mike James join the fold.

 

1. Lee- Top pick- Bell, RB (#2 overall)…Worst pick- Tompkins, WR (#13 overall)

Lee orchestrated a major draft day swap with Concannon, getting the #2 pick and a 2nd round choice in exchange for a #1, #2, Witten, and Hillman.  At the time of writing, Bell is the top keeper for next season, so a fine job from Lee in identifying his man and moving up to get him.

 

Tompkins got cut mid-season this year after being relatively non-useful from a fantasy perspective.  However, scooping up Ellington in the middle of round 2 elevates Lee to one of the top slots for this year's draft class- if he stays healthy.  Here's to hoping the slightly-built Cardinals RB is used a little less (as in more wisely) to prevent the same injuries from hampering him in the future.

 

Coming up Saturday…

I'll preview the #1 pick final- Tighe v Concannon- and dig up those computer rankings…

 

Merry Christmas, all.

 

Tim

NFFL Week 16

NFFL Week 16 Preview

December 20, 2014

Coming down to the wire…let’s start small and work up…

NFFL #1 Pick Tournament- Semifinals

Concannon v Wiseman

After knocking top-scorer Wiseman out of the NFFL playoffs, the second-year man has a chance for direct revenge.  The commissioner enters this game on the back of two fairly ho-hum weeks after a red-hot tear saw him sneak into the playoff qualifying rounds.

The team news leading into this one is fairly quiet- Concannon will feel the impact of Allen’s injury but might benefit from improving on the second year Charger’s two total points over the past two weeks.  White is also limping, meaning potential recalls for Decker and Sanu in the lineup.  At RB, four (4!) top-20 RBs (by ESPN ranking) mean a tough call with Murray/Herron- if Murray is ruled out for Dallas, look for Randle to leapfrog both.

Sanchez is rolled out for another week…his struggles have coincided with this mini-slump so look for his output to sway the PB Tzar tally here.

Wiseman’s second chance sees injured players restored to the depleted Week 13 lineup.  Key men will be Watkins, Forsett, and Tate- players who have become a bit more inconsistent in the past month that Wiseman leaned on early.

News that Kaepernick has been dropped to bench might be a surprise to those still booting up Madden ’13 on their consoles…

The intrigue could come late here with Mannning/Bernard squaring off on MNF.  I would project that a 30 point PB Tzar lead would make the game about 50-50, though the recent history of those players might drop that number closer to 25…

Tighe v Malinn

Tighe’s top-heavy lineup squares off with Malinn’s empty backfield set.

Tighe holds, on paper, the advantage- Brees/Rodgers and the Thomas Bros. give him an edge in star power in all respects.  However, the emerging Odell ‘Bend Backwards To Catch It’ Beckham gives Malinn a little glitter of his own…

The key man here might be Josh Gordon- at this point, even Clipboard Jesus would be an improvement on Johnny Footsteps but Malinn will likely settle for Hoyer.  And who knows about the strategy of buffering against Brees with Stills/Colston?  Malinn might be inventing a new tactic, for all we know.

This one will likely come down to which role player steps up and scores a pair of touchdowns- Moncrief, Senior Senior, Eddie Royal for Tighe, Bryce Brown, the aforementioned Saints for Malinn.  And in a showdown of teams who were ultimately let down by their top picks in the same draft- RGIII, T-Rich- it might be high time for Trent Richardson 2.0 (yards per carry) to justify his lofty draft position by contributing to returning a high pick for his owner.

And now, for our main event…

NFFL Superbowl XV

Lee v Arbo

I actually think the number above might be wrong, but who cares?  Super Bowl week.

Lee limps into this game ahead of a wave of ridicule and complain from the league, boasting a starting roster of Nick TOON, Jonas GRAY, and the immortal Lance DUNBAR. #TheBigThree

Arbo, meanwhile, strolls in confidently after a dominant regular season behind star men Luck, Brown, and Murray.  Struggles from star players Johnson and McCoy were overcome behind those three while early flashes from Ingram and Hopkins helped the cause.

However, the big story here is Murray and the broken hand…

Who would have guessed he would get hurt?

Here we go- after hearing all year that Murray was getting too much work, Dallas sees its star man on the sidelines one week after taking control of the NFC East against Philly.  One hurdle short!  But what does this mean here?

Last week, Arbo faced TMac in a semi-final, scoring 100 points.  With Murray out, he likely goes with Landry, Nicks, or Hurns- a drop of 10-15 points.  TMac got 79, so it would not have mattered, but 85 points is no way to win a championship.

Week 14 was against the commissioner.  27 for Murray, same three, a drop of 15-20 in a week where the opponent hit 100.  Arbo hit 126, so again, he’s where he is now. 

Let’s look at it from one other perspective…in the words of Cris Collinsworth…here we go…

Basically, if Murray is out, Arbo is an average playoff team- about 90-105 a week.  Lee has hit, in the last two weeks, 154 and 109.  He would have beaten Arbo, with or without the Murray adjustment above, had they played the last two weeks.  If Arbo is in the 90-105 range this week, Lee is a pretty good bet to be there, too.

And, finally, Lee goes with Dunbar, who gets more work without Murray, and Bryant, who already gets plenty of work with Murray.  The argument that Bryant sees extra coverage without Murray is legit but irrelevant- this was the case in the past and Bryant did just fine.

Hmmm…

The other key battleground is at #2 QB.  For a Superbowl, this might be the worst such matchup in history- McCown v Carr.  Carr gets Buffalo, who held AARON RODGERS to about the same number of points as Matthew Slater has scored all season- my guess is we pencil Carr in for 10 at the most.  ‘

McCown might not be headed for a bronze bust in Canton but his matchup with Green Bay is OK and he has the weapons to score some points.  Advantage, Lee.

New York, New York, is tight end, tight end

Graham > Gates.

Rookie intrigue

I like the intersection here of Landry and Benjamin- one overhyped #1 pick, one a steady, solid contributor to a winning cause.  Summarizes my feeling about the matchup accurately.  Benjamin has upside here but I like Landry ahead of any of the big three.

Running backs win championships…

Although we have seen signs of life from Shady McCoy, Lee’s team exists for one reason only- Bell.  The Pittsburgh star has a dual role this week- score all of Lee’s points and make sure that he is so effective Big Ben does not even think about throwing the ball to Antonio Brown (Tighe nodding).

The edge with Bell has been so significant at times this year that I think he is my odds on favorite for Super Bowl MVP.

Bell: 5-1

Luck: 7-1

Shaaaaaaaaay-D: 10-1

Slater: 1000-1

Toon: ∞ - 1

Intangibles

The league is sick of Lee’s nonsense, which hints that the fantasy gods will punish us all and reward Lee with a 53-52 victory.

Prediction

See Three, The Big, above.  Who is Lee kidding?

Arbo 124 (104 without Murray), Lee 95

Next week

I reveal the highly questionable ‘computer rankings’ from last week and start analyzing past rookie drafts.

If anyone has this year’s draft nice and neatly typed up- preferably the same format as the past drafts posted on the blog- please send to me.  Otherwise, I’ll gather up the details in January.

NFFL Week 15- Preview

Week 15 Preview

League-

The biggest single week of the NFFL season is upon us.  For some, this represents a shot at redeeming a lost season by winning the #1 overall selection (Mariotta Bowl?) and having a head start on winning trophies in 2015.  For others, the real season starts now- two games away from the coveted honor of being crowned league champion.  For Lee, who knows, maybe he found a horseshoe to shove up his rear end- just in case he used up all his good luck through the first fourteen weeks.

In any event, from this point onward, a loss means the season is over.  Good luck to all teams this weekend.

2014 Playoff B(C)S Power Rankings

Or BS for short.

Rankings consist of three criteria- seeding (based on regular season finish, adjusted for any qualifying round success), form (last four weeks, averaged), and the finely tuned computer rankings.  I am sure everyone will find these rankings to be a fair reflection of their team’s relative position.

Team (seed ranking, form ranking, computer ranking)

12. Nemo (12, 12, 11)

11. Thompson (10, 9, 12)

10. Malinn (9, 10, 9)

9. DFlam (11, 11, 5)

8. Curran (8, 6, 6)

7. Tighe (5, 5, 9)

6. Concannon (6, 4, 7)

5. Wiseman (7, 7, 1)

4. Arbo (3, 3, 8)

3. Sean (4, 8, 2)

2. Lee (1, 2, 4)

1. TMac (2, 1, 3)

Looks like those computer rankings will need a debug…

2014 Number One Pick Tournament- Quarterfinals

Thompson v Tighe

Tighe is the paper favorite here, having outscored Thompson 108-90 over the past four and managing 91- a score that would beat Thompson in any week but last- despite one of the sorriest performances from the Thomas Twins that I can recall.

Tighe is vulnerable to an upset- injuries are ongoing and Moncrief is unproved- but Thompson is plenty banged up himself (understatement) and will need performances from the unproven likes of West, Floyd, or Locker. 

Nemo v Concannon

The commish saw a promising start halted by a surging Arbo but finds himself with a strong draw here against Nemo.  Four week form favors the Tzar, 113-63.

Intrigue in the form of a three-point start from Tre Mason and the return of Wilson/Murray against former clubs makes this an interesting showdown but the likely bet is that Nemo ends a forgettable campaign in this upcoming week.

Wiseman v Curran

Likely the glamour cup matchup for the neutrals here, Curran’s four week form compares nicely to Wiseman, 100-92, as the second year man has seen his squad fade late with injuries and ineffectiveness among key players.

Curran rolls out rookie QB Manziel here in the process of setting what I believe will be a league record in starting four rookies while the Gronk/Brady cross matchup will keep things interesting.  This one could get really interesting late with Forte the lone MNF participant- having suffered already in the qualifying round, Curran will prefer to avoid any more tense moments by building a big lead Sunady.

Malinn v Flam

An intersection of disappointing seasons here, Malinn looks the better bet to progress based on form (90-70) and a more impressive lineup in general.  Questions abound in many areas for Flam and any dud performances should bring the season to a conclusion.

Malinn will be a sneaky pick for the #1 pick- with more picks than any other squad already, a win in this competition could see him among the early favorites for the 2015 crown.

2014 NFFL Semi Finals

The semi final draw is set with two newcomers in the NFFL playoffs joining the established Lee and solid TMac.  With only Lee having won a Superbowl, it looks likely that a new champion will emerge from this quartet.

Lee, the regular season champion, chose Sean as his opponent.  Let’s start there…

Sean @ Lee

Tough draw for Sean.  Form favors Lee- 120 to 90, with no single week in the four where Sean outscored Lee.  Injuries abound in all areas for the league’s youngest owner- and despite a solid start from Kerwynn Williams, it looks unlikely for Sean.

Lee, the #1 seed, is nobody’s idea of a favorite.  Storm Johnson and James Starks were both spotted warming up pre-game…surely not?  History favors the RB heavy teams late in the year- so it will be interesting indeed as this one plays out…

Key games include Dallas-Philadelphia as Romo will be throwing to Bryant on SNF.  MNF will feature Jimmy Graham, looking for a third straight zero, but this one looks likely to be decided prior to that point.  If Sean can get a big one from Foster and a healthy D-Jax, there is certainly upset potential against a shaky Lee outfit.

Arbo @ Tmac

The big one- both squads have average over 110 points over the last four but the relevant measure may be the last two weeks- Tmac with 113 and 134, Arbo with 155 and 126- which hint at two teams peaking in the right stage of the year.

A lot to like about this one from a neutral point of view- Arbo with Ingram on MNF, TMac with the Cutler/Bennett duo- while there is plenty of star power in McCoy, Murray, Lynch, Charles at the RB spots.  The old adage, mentioned above, is that QB gets teams into the playoffs, RBs win it- but no clear advantage there.

Close games like these can turn on key performances but with so many big players it may come down to a dud.  I like TMac’s team a little more in this regard- it is a solid lineup throughout.  Arbo may be concerned a bit with Carr/Hopkins/Ingram being the likely three worst players involved- though the latter two can go off for big games.  The performance from that trio should dictate the outcome- about 35 points should keep it even, anything more might tip the scales in Arbo’s direction.

Week 14 Preview

NFFL Week 14 Preview

First up- although I texted the six involved, here are the lottery ball contests for week 14:

Thompson-Malinn

Nemo-Wiseman

DFlam-Curran

NFFL 2014 League Championship Game

Lee v TMac

Current: TMac 41, Lee 8 (TMac has played two players, Lee has played one)

After last season’s attempt fell on its face, we get the vision we had when we incorporated the playoff qualifying system with a week 14 showdown to determine the regular season champion.  TMac- already with two wins over Lee- needs a win to secure the title while Lee can hold on with just a draw.

A strong start Thursday night will have TMac feeling confident ahead of Sunday’s slate.  With a lineup from top to bottom that boasts quality- the weakest link may currently be Rivers after Bennett came through- TMac is the favorite here against a tentative Lee outfit that has slotted in rookies Williams and Adams.

Fortunately for Lee, his squad features a number of boom or bust types- Hilton, Graham, Stafford, Bell- and a pair of explosive performances could overcome the steady consistency of TMac.

Key Player

Lee- Kelvin Benjamin

After a solid start justified the #1 overall selection, Benjamin has slipped behind fellow rookie WRs Evans, Beckham, and Watkins in value.  On the fast turf in New Orleans, Lee will need his star rookie to turn in a big performance to overcome a difficult Thursday start.

TMac- Philip Rivers

After taking an early lead, TMac will need to avoid catastrophic performances to ensure a strong chance at securing the regular season crown.  Rivers could be in danger against a strong Patriots D but his overall quality should shine through and push TMac into first place.

Summary

TMac is off to the early lead but has slightly less favorable matchups than Lee- it should be close and we could see Adams on Monday night needing somewhere between ten and twenty points to win it- but the chance that this gets away from the current leader is high and I like the odds of Rivers putting it out of reach on Sunday night.

Second Qualifying Round

Concannon @ Arbo

Current: Arbo 27, Concannon 17 (Arbo has played one player, Concannon has played two)

Concannon was selected for a second straight week despite his near record shellacking of Wiseman last week.  Murray got Arbo off to a strong start Thursday but a late Jeffrey surge kept the eight seed involved.

Whose team are we on, again?

There is some intrigue in this matchup due to a significant amount of team overlap- Luck/Herron, Shady/Sanchez, Calvin/Joique.  The big one might be Sunday night- Gates/Keenan is a case of two guys battling for the same passes.  So far, Arbo took round one here with Murray swatting Witten by a full  twenty-five points- but the lesson is that one big game from any of the above limits the ability of the other to do the same.

Injury intrigue

Arbo’s squad is relatively injury free at the moment, though the case could be made that Carr plays as if permanently concussed.  Concannon will face a tough call tomorrow on Roddy White- the risk that he sits is significant and the MNF start time makes replacement options impossible.  Will he roll the dice on early stud Sanu or long-time PB Tzar member Decker?

Key Players

Arbo- Andrew Luck

With the early lead, my thought was to look for guys who might disappoint- Luck seems a candidate against a tough Browns outfit on the road.  Arbo has been riding his Luck all season but there is no fluke about his level of play.  However, a poor showing tomorrow could open the door a little for the Tzar to make up ground.

Concannon- Mark Sanchez

A winless start has been followed by five straight wins, four of those with Sanchez at the controls.  A combination of ideal system and ‘lax’ NFFL turnover penalties has vaulted him into the QB1 discussion and turned him into a critical component of the PB Tzar machine.  However, a potential catastrophe looms on the road against surging Seattle and a return to his butt-fumbling Jets days may be beckoning.  A minimum of 15 points is likely required to keep the Tzar alive…

Conclusion

With lots of cross-pollination and tough QB matchups, this playoff contest remains wide open.  However, you cannot take points off the board and an MVP-level showing from Murray Thursday hints at being the difference here.

Sean @ Tighe

Current: Sean 20, Tighe 0 (Only Romo has played)

After the ‘Tannehill Incident’ last Monday, Sean limps forward into the second qualifying round.  Romo has him off to a strong start but Tighe’s entire squad remains to go.

Wide Receiver weakness, tight ends gimpy…

Sean tried to address concerns at WR prior to the trade deadline but opted ultimately to strengthen at TE instead, picking up Olsen for Jordan Mathews.  That trade has since turned against him as Olsen is limping around while Mathews would be a clear start at WR here.  What we have left is former Meatsquad draft choice Charles Johnson, legendary PB Tzar castoff Kenny Britt, and promising rookie John Brown.  Certainly not reminding anyone of the ’99-’01 Rams with those pass catchers…

On the other side, Tighe brings his own banged up tight end in Thomas and trots out a senior Steve Smith Sr. alongside the promising but inconsistent Moncrief.  Slight edge to Tighe here, I think, given that he is using Ryan Mathews as a RB3 over playing another WR- but these are weak units and a big game from any of these players could swing the matchup.

Are you ready for some football?

Lee will be firing up his typewriter Monday to describe the mathematics required for a game featuring Nelson, Rodgers, and Lacy going against the Falcons- a team experienced in handling kick returns, shall we say.  With Rodgers throwing to Nelson, Sean will need a big cushion going into Monday to stand a chance of advancing to his first NFFL playoffs.

Key Players

Tighe- Drew Brees

A relatively disappointing season has many wondering if the Saints QB is marching into the twilight of his QB1 career.  However, a tasty appointment with the Panthers D could see Brees roll back the clock with a vintage performance and take back the early deficit.

Sean- Arian Foster

Again?  Foster looks healthy for now so let’s discuss Fred Jackson instead- a tough showdown with Denver will limit upside but as more or less the feature guy a touchdown and 70-80 yards could be enough to help Sean keep pace with Tighe’s stronger RB corps.

Conclusion

Tough one to call but with greater consistency at QB and better overall RB play I like Tighe to begin his title defense with a solid but unspectacular victory this weekend.

Next week…

The playoffs roll onward with the semi-final stage.  We also open the #1 pick tournament with a full random drawing to determine quarterfinal pairings.

2014 NFFL Luck Analysis

Happy Thanksgiving!

Our annual questions about the impact of schedule on the standings, plus more- how lucky was that damn Lee?  How unlucky was I?  Does the extra rivalry week game matter, and by how much?  Why is the commish always the first to benefit from a new rule change?- to be answered.  Without further ado, then...

2014 NFFL Luck Analysis

Team	W_expt	Wins	LUCK
Lee	7.86	10	2.14
Tmac	8.14	8.5	0.36
Arbo	8.73	8	-0.73
Tighe	7.59	7	-0.59
Wiseman	8.59	6	-2.59
Sean	6.32	6	-0.32
Curran	6.14	6	-0.14
Concannon	4.23	5	0.77
Malinn	4.45	5	0.55
Thompson	3.36	5	1.64
Dflam	3.59	4	0.41
Nemo	3.00	1	-2.00

*Standings were calculated by assigning points to teams based on weekly league position.  11 points for first, 10 points for second, ..., 0 points for last.  Then, I divided by 132 (maximum points per team per season) and multiplied by 12 (number of games) to determine, on average, how many games a team would win provided a perfectly random schedule.

*As usual, the caveat is that teams at the top and bottom of the standings tend to have their luck exaggerated- so although Nemo and Lee tend to appear lucky/unlucky, my recall is that teams in first/last tend to have a +/- of around 1.5 ~ 2 each season.

*Still- Lee, that lucky bastard!

*Wiseman looks to have suffered the most from a luck standpoint- his win total fell two and a half games shy of the expectation.

*The 'battle' for 8th place came down to three of the luckiest squads- PB Tzar prevailed, most likely due to being lucky over the final four weeks, holding off Malinn (strong until dismantling part of his squad) and DFlam (hit hard by injuries/ineffectiveness after a decent start).

*It may also have come down to scheduling- Sean was the weakest of the respective rivals and the extra game on the schedule may have made the difference.

The Excel document for the luck analysis is going to be posted online shortly- also attached in the email chain.

2014 NFFL Qualifying Round 1 Preview
#5 Wiseman v #8 Concannon

Wiseman enters this game several hundred words removed from a vindication of his hard-luck season.  At 6-6, he does not have the appearance of a Super Bowl contender, but a strong lineup from #1 to #9 means there is consistency to balance a lineup of big game potential.

Concannon, four weeks removed from declaring himself mathematically eliminated at 0-6-2, somehow stumbles ass-backward into the playoffs behind the inspiring play of Mark Sanchez.  Not a known formula for winning playoff games but there is a first time for everything, I suppose.

Positional breakdown

Wiseman holds the edge in pedigree at QB but there is a slight concern over matchups- Manning is @KC, Kap is hosting Seattle- which could allow the commish back into the mix behind Flac and Saaaaaaaaan-chize!

Interestingly, PB Tzar's QBs are the last two non-Mannings to bounce the Pats from the playoffs.  Irrelevant fact, but thought I would throw it out there.

At RB, it is Wiseman with a three-headed attack of Forte/Forsett/Bernarnd.  All three would be the lead back on the other side as the Tzar has assembled perhaps the largest number of flex-level RBs in league history- Mason is rumored to be locked in and Bell was just spotted warming up but decisions remain on Herron, Murray, Vereen, Blue...

Concannon makes a step forward at WR and perhaps a slight edge, even, with White and Allen surging.  Jeffrey has had a tough time.  Wiseman counters with a solid trio of former PB Tzar draft choice Tate, Cobb, and #1 pick Watkins (perhaps fatigued from shoveling Deuce out of his house).  Looks even on paper, based on performance, but the histories of the players favor the commish.

TE is even, in terms of blocking and intangibles.  Gronk and Witten are also each projected for nine fantasy points by Yahoo.  Let's tweak that a bit and say Wiseman has a massive edge.

Captains- as usual, Wiseman's team lacks the leadership needed for a playoff run, while PB Tzar has signed Matthew Slater for the final five weeks of the season and will look to his unique blend of experience and expertise to help guide the young backs through the pressure cooker of the qualifying rounds.

Key Players

Wiseman- Gronk provides a massive edge at a position where the Tzar has historically struggled.
Concannon- Jeffrey will need to return to 2013 form for any chance at an upset- this would also have the benefit of potentially slowing down Forte.

Outlook

Wiseman leads the league in points and is getting healthy after a minor blip.  Look for his winning ways to continue against the feel-good but flex-heavy commissioner.

#6 Sean v #7 Curran

An interesting intersection of squads here after a late season trade saw Olsen and Jordan Mathews swap places.  The trade underscored the directions the two squads were heading- Sean, scrambling to maintain a fading early momentum, Curran, content to get involved in the playoffs but ready to add to a solid young core for 2015.

Positional breakdown

Curran holds the edge with Brady + anyone.  No one in this league is really enthused about Eli Manning but he has proven serviceable at times- the goal for Sean likely will be to stay in range and hope Brady hands off to T.J. Duckett or whoever BB signs up to take 15 carries this week.

Speaking of BB- Curran currently has Blount locked into a flex position and I cannot see anyone out side of possibly Crabtree taking his spot.  It underscores a depth issue here for both squads- Sean is currently debating aloud whether to start Hyde, Taliaferro, etc...my take on the position will come down to whether Foster suits up or not.

Its a young trio at WR for AMEN-dola Father Coffee- Mike Evans and Matthews are rookie sensations.  Sean runs out John Brown, possibly, and former PB Tzar boner team starter Kenny Britt.  Nelson is a true star in a game where star power is limited and could turn the tide a bit here while the switch to Slinging Colt McCoy might spark D-Jax into action.

TE used to be a lock for Curran- GRONK GRONK GRONK- but the Olsen deal leaves his options limited to the promising but unpolished Kelce or the vastly overrated Fleener.  Kelce brings prime time promise and has a good matchup against Denver.  Sean rolls out Olsen and you have to wonder if going against his former team will motivate the former Bear.

Key Players

Curran- Brady...as usual, this team rolls as the Patriots roll.  Trying to think of a 'blunt Blount' joke here, but failing.
Sean- Foster...as usual, this team rolls as Foster's hammies roll.  Trying to think of a way to mention that Sean 'Blue' the chance to trade for his hamm-cuff, but failing to do it without sounding arrogant.

Outlook

Curran looks set to advance here but a return to action for Foster might be enough to bring this back to an even contest.  If Foster goes- the NE-GB matchup will likely decide the outcome thanks to the involvement of Nelson, Brady, and etc.

Next week...

Winners advance to meet #3/#4 seeds.  Good luck to all.

Tim