Our annual questions about the impact of schedule on the standings, plus more- how lucky was that damn Lee? How unlucky was I? Does the extra rivalry week game matter, and by how much? Why is the commish always the first to benefit from a new rule change?- to be answered. Without further ado, then...
2014 NFFL Luck Analysis
| Team | W_expt | Wins | LUCK |
| Lee | 7.86 | 10 | 2.14 |
| Tmac | 8.14 | 8.5 | 0.36 |
| Arbo | 8.73 | 8 | -0.73 |
| Tighe | 7.59 | 7 | -0.59 |
| Wiseman | 8.59 | 6 | -2.59 |
| Sean | 6.32 | 6 | -0.32 |
| Curran | 6.14 | 6 | -0.14 |
| Concannon | 4.23 | 5 | 0.77 |
| Malinn | 4.45 | 5 | 0.55 |
| Thompson | 3.36 | 5 | 1.64 |
| Dflam | 3.59 | 4 | 0.41 |
| Nemo | 3.00 | 1 | -2.00 |
*Standings were calculated by assigning points to teams based on weekly league position. 11 points for first, 10 points for second, ..., 0 points for last. Then, I divided by 132 (maximum points per team per season) and multiplied by 12 (number of games) to determine, on average, how many games a team would win provided a perfectly random schedule.
*As usual, the caveat is that teams at the top and bottom of the standings tend to have their luck exaggerated- so although Nemo and Lee tend to appear lucky/unlucky, my recall is that teams in first/last tend to have a +/- of around 1.5 ~ 2 each season.
*Still- Lee, that lucky bastard!
*Wiseman looks to have suffered the most from a luck standpoint- his win total fell two and a half games shy of the expectation.
*The 'battle' for 8th place came down to three of the luckiest squads- PB Tzar prevailed, most likely due to being lucky over the final four weeks, holding off Malinn (strong until dismantling part of his squad) and DFlam (hit hard by injuries/ineffectiveness after a decent start).
*It may also have come down to scheduling- Sean was the weakest of the respective rivals and the extra game on the schedule may have made the difference.
The Excel document for the luck analysis is going to be posted online shortly- also attached in the email chain.
2014 NFFL Qualifying Round 1 Preview
#5 Wiseman v #8 Concannon
Wiseman enters this game several hundred words removed from a vindication of his hard-luck season. At 6-6, he does not have the appearance of a Super Bowl contender, but a strong lineup from #1 to #9 means there is consistency to balance a lineup of big game potential.
Concannon, four weeks removed from declaring himself mathematically eliminated at 0-6-2, somehow stumbles ass-backward into the playoffs behind the inspiring play of Mark Sanchez. Not a known formula for winning playoff games but there is a first time for everything, I suppose.
Positional breakdown
Wiseman holds the edge in pedigree at QB but there is a slight concern over matchups- Manning is @KC, Kap is hosting Seattle- which could allow the commish back into the mix behind Flac and Saaaaaaaaan-chize!
Interestingly, PB Tzar's QBs are the last two non-Mannings to bounce the Pats from the playoffs. Irrelevant fact, but thought I would throw it out there.
At RB, it is Wiseman with a three-headed attack of Forte/Forsett/Bernarnd. All three would be the lead back on the other side as the Tzar has assembled perhaps the largest number of flex-level RBs in league history- Mason is rumored to be locked in and Bell was just spotted warming up but decisions remain on Herron, Murray, Vereen, Blue...
Concannon makes a step forward at WR and perhaps a slight edge, even, with White and Allen surging. Jeffrey has had a tough time. Wiseman counters with a solid trio of former PB Tzar draft choice Tate, Cobb, and #1 pick Watkins (perhaps fatigued from shoveling Deuce out of his house). Looks even on paper, based on performance, but the histories of the players favor the commish.
TE is even, in terms of blocking and intangibles. Gronk and Witten are also each projected for nine fantasy points by Yahoo. Let's tweak that a bit and say Wiseman has a massive edge.
Captains- as usual, Wiseman's team lacks the leadership needed for a playoff run, while PB Tzar has signed Matthew Slater for the final five weeks of the season and will look to his unique blend of experience and expertise to help guide the young backs through the pressure cooker of the qualifying rounds.
Key Players
Wiseman- Gronk provides a massive edge at a position where the Tzar has historically struggled.
Concannon- Jeffrey will need to return to 2013 form for any chance at an upset- this would also have the benefit of potentially slowing down Forte.
Outlook
Wiseman leads the league in points and is getting healthy after a minor blip. Look for his winning ways to continue against the feel-good but flex-heavy commissioner.
#6 Sean v #7 Curran
An interesting intersection of squads here after a late season trade saw Olsen and Jordan Mathews swap places. The trade underscored the directions the two squads were heading- Sean, scrambling to maintain a fading early momentum, Curran, content to get involved in the playoffs but ready to add to a solid young core for 2015.
Positional breakdown
Curran holds the edge with Brady + anyone. No one in this league is really enthused about Eli Manning but he has proven serviceable at times- the goal for Sean likely will be to stay in range and hope Brady hands off to T.J. Duckett or whoever BB signs up to take 15 carries this week.
Speaking of BB- Curran currently has Blount locked into a flex position and I cannot see anyone out side of possibly Crabtree taking his spot. It underscores a depth issue here for both squads- Sean is currently debating aloud whether to start Hyde, Taliaferro, etc...my take on the position will come down to whether Foster suits up or not.
Its a young trio at WR for AMEN-dola Father Coffee- Mike Evans and Matthews are rookie sensations. Sean runs out John Brown, possibly, and former PB Tzar boner team starter Kenny Britt. Nelson is a true star in a game where star power is limited and could turn the tide a bit here while the switch to Slinging Colt McCoy might spark D-Jax into action.
TE used to be a lock for Curran- GRONK GRONK GRONK- but the Olsen deal leaves his options limited to the promising but unpolished Kelce or the vastly overrated Fleener. Kelce brings prime time promise and has a good matchup against Denver. Sean rolls out Olsen and you have to wonder if going against his former team will motivate the former Bear.
Key Players
Curran- Brady...as usual, this team rolls as the Patriots roll. Trying to think of a 'blunt Blount' joke here, but failing.
Sean- Foster...as usual, this team rolls as Foster's hammies roll. Trying to think of a way to mention that Sean 'Blue' the chance to trade for his hamm-cuff, but failing to do it without sounding arrogant.
Outlook
Curran looks set to advance here but a return to action for Foster might be enough to bring this back to an even contest. If Foster goes- the NE-GB matchup will likely decide the outcome thanks to the involvement of Nelson, Brady, and etc.
Next week...
Winners advance to meet #3/#4 seeds. Good luck to all.
Tim
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