NFFL Week 15- Preview

Week 15 Preview

League-

The biggest single week of the NFFL season is upon us.  For some, this represents a shot at redeeming a lost season by winning the #1 overall selection (Mariotta Bowl?) and having a head start on winning trophies in 2015.  For others, the real season starts now- two games away from the coveted honor of being crowned league champion.  For Lee, who knows, maybe he found a horseshoe to shove up his rear end- just in case he used up all his good luck through the first fourteen weeks.

In any event, from this point onward, a loss means the season is over.  Good luck to all teams this weekend.

2014 Playoff B(C)S Power Rankings

Or BS for short.

Rankings consist of three criteria- seeding (based on regular season finish, adjusted for any qualifying round success), form (last four weeks, averaged), and the finely tuned computer rankings.  I am sure everyone will find these rankings to be a fair reflection of their team’s relative position.

Team (seed ranking, form ranking, computer ranking)

12. Nemo (12, 12, 11)

11. Thompson (10, 9, 12)

10. Malinn (9, 10, 9)

9. DFlam (11, 11, 5)

8. Curran (8, 6, 6)

7. Tighe (5, 5, 9)

6. Concannon (6, 4, 7)

5. Wiseman (7, 7, 1)

4. Arbo (3, 3, 8)

3. Sean (4, 8, 2)

2. Lee (1, 2, 4)

1. TMac (2, 1, 3)

Looks like those computer rankings will need a debug…

2014 Number One Pick Tournament- Quarterfinals

Thompson v Tighe

Tighe is the paper favorite here, having outscored Thompson 108-90 over the past four and managing 91- a score that would beat Thompson in any week but last- despite one of the sorriest performances from the Thomas Twins that I can recall.

Tighe is vulnerable to an upset- injuries are ongoing and Moncrief is unproved- but Thompson is plenty banged up himself (understatement) and will need performances from the unproven likes of West, Floyd, or Locker. 

Nemo v Concannon

The commish saw a promising start halted by a surging Arbo but finds himself with a strong draw here against Nemo.  Four week form favors the Tzar, 113-63.

Intrigue in the form of a three-point start from Tre Mason and the return of Wilson/Murray against former clubs makes this an interesting showdown but the likely bet is that Nemo ends a forgettable campaign in this upcoming week.

Wiseman v Curran

Likely the glamour cup matchup for the neutrals here, Curran’s four week form compares nicely to Wiseman, 100-92, as the second year man has seen his squad fade late with injuries and ineffectiveness among key players.

Curran rolls out rookie QB Manziel here in the process of setting what I believe will be a league record in starting four rookies while the Gronk/Brady cross matchup will keep things interesting.  This one could get really interesting late with Forte the lone MNF participant- having suffered already in the qualifying round, Curran will prefer to avoid any more tense moments by building a big lead Sunady.

Malinn v Flam

An intersection of disappointing seasons here, Malinn looks the better bet to progress based on form (90-70) and a more impressive lineup in general.  Questions abound in many areas for Flam and any dud performances should bring the season to a conclusion.

Malinn will be a sneaky pick for the #1 pick- with more picks than any other squad already, a win in this competition could see him among the early favorites for the 2015 crown.

2014 NFFL Semi Finals

The semi final draw is set with two newcomers in the NFFL playoffs joining the established Lee and solid TMac.  With only Lee having won a Superbowl, it looks likely that a new champion will emerge from this quartet.

Lee, the regular season champion, chose Sean as his opponent.  Let’s start there…

Sean @ Lee

Tough draw for Sean.  Form favors Lee- 120 to 90, with no single week in the four where Sean outscored Lee.  Injuries abound in all areas for the league’s youngest owner- and despite a solid start from Kerwynn Williams, it looks unlikely for Sean.

Lee, the #1 seed, is nobody’s idea of a favorite.  Storm Johnson and James Starks were both spotted warming up pre-game…surely not?  History favors the RB heavy teams late in the year- so it will be interesting indeed as this one plays out…

Key games include Dallas-Philadelphia as Romo will be throwing to Bryant on SNF.  MNF will feature Jimmy Graham, looking for a third straight zero, but this one looks likely to be decided prior to that point.  If Sean can get a big one from Foster and a healthy D-Jax, there is certainly upset potential against a shaky Lee outfit.

Arbo @ Tmac

The big one- both squads have average over 110 points over the last four but the relevant measure may be the last two weeks- Tmac with 113 and 134, Arbo with 155 and 126- which hint at two teams peaking in the right stage of the year.

A lot to like about this one from a neutral point of view- Arbo with Ingram on MNF, TMac with the Cutler/Bennett duo- while there is plenty of star power in McCoy, Murray, Lynch, Charles at the RB spots.  The old adage, mentioned above, is that QB gets teams into the playoffs, RBs win it- but no clear advantage there.

Close games like these can turn on key performances but with so many big players it may come down to a dud.  I like TMac’s team a little more in this regard- it is a solid lineup throughout.  Arbo may be concerned a bit with Carr/Hopkins/Ingram being the likely three worst players involved- though the latter two can go off for big games.  The performance from that trio should dictate the outcome- about 35 points should keep it even, anything more might tip the scales in Arbo’s direction.