NFFL Blog- Christmas Edition
Good morning all,
In what I suspect is not nearly as much of an annual
tradition as I think it is- the annual Christmas day blog post!
Congratulations first to Arbo, winner of his first league
Superbowl after returning to us after a multi-year exile. His squad cruised against #1 seed Lee despite
letdown showings from star men Luck and Murray to finalize his stamp on what
was quite a strange season by league standards.
No need for Lee to hang his head- his team had its issues
throughout the campaign but was able to overcome many of those through deft
management and consistent big games from star players. Going into next season, Bell will form the
nucleus of what should be another strong championship contender.
I hinted last week that we would do a (self-indulgent) run
down of the computer rankings from two weeks back. Whoops…left that stuff at my apartment. We will need to settle for one of my standbys…rookie
draft lookback. Given the value of Bell
in this league at the moment, let's go with 2013.
NFFL Rookie Draft Power Rankings- 2013
12. Concannon- top pick- Franklin, RB (round 2)…worst pick-
Lattimore, RB (2nd round)
Perhaps a minor asterisk deserved here- a flurry of trades
saw Concannon pick up extra picks in 2014 plus veterans Witten and
Hillman. Still, starting with the #2
overall pick in such a strong year and ending up with Ryan Nassib as the only
potential 2015 keeper is a failure.
Franklin's memorable week 3 cameo in Cincinnati justifies
his high selection- the promising back saw a career cut short by neck
injury. Lattimore's promising career was
also cut short, in college, and thus the gamble here did not pay off. Randle and Polk have shown signs of life this
season while Nassib could take over for a fading Eli Manning at some
point. But no value, no real keepers
here.
11. TMac- Top pick- Hunter, WR (round 4)…worst pick- Austin,
WR (#4 overall)
With two top four selections, TMac appeared in prime
position to solidify a contender for the next two to three years. Instead, he ends up with prime bust Austin
and Denver's disappointing Montee Ball at #3.
I am not quite ready to give up on Austin but he might be a new team
away from being used effectively as a fantasy option. Ball- we just have not seen it.
Looking back, Lacy at #5 and Hopkins at #7 would have been
preferred.
Trading expertise allowed TMac to package the promising
Hunter with a #1 pick to get Charles.
Although Charles did not help deliver the title, the trade was the right
move ten times out of ten and at the very least provides some value from this
class.
Some interesting late names here- Kelce, Kerwynn Williams-
who have popped up with value this season bumps up the grade a slight bit.
10. Sean- top pick- Terrance Williams, WR (3rd round)…worst
pick- Hernandez, TE (6th round)
Not a terrible return in his rookie year- Charles Johnson
has come around after landing in Minnesota and EJ Manual was both serviceable
in year one and a key trade chip in year two.
Still, some other alternatives in round 1 would have proved
better building blocks and the Hernandez selection in round 6 shows a clear
lack of understanding regarding the basics of both the legal and keeper
systems.
Grabbing McCoy and Orton in the last two rounds was more
like it- high upside backup QBs behind fragile or shaky starters.
9. Curran- top pick- Glennon (round 3)…worst pick- Sudfeld,
TE (round 3)
A fairly forgettable draft day for Curran. His first pick was at #22 (Da'Rick Rogers)
but getting Glennon three picks later was quite a move.
Understanding the Sudfeld pick is the key to understanding
the Father Coffee draft day mantra- get up early, write the Patriots names on a
napkin, and open a beer. Sometimes it
does OK (Blount came aboard two weeks later) and sometimes you get Sudfeld.
8. Tighe- top pick- Keenan Allen, WR (2nd round)…worst pick-
Dobson, WR (9th overall)
Allen was a terrific round 2 choice and provided almost
historically strong rookie year production.
A slow start saw him shipped out in year two but late signs of life make
it clear that Allen has top-20 WR potential for years to come.
Dobson was a classic NFFL choice- high upside Patriot a few
spots early. On the other hand, easy to
look back with 20-20 hindsight as this pick was regarded as a solid choice at
the time. Dobson might still come around
but at this point has not provided much fantasy value for the investment.
7. Nemo- top pick- Murray, RB (3rd round)…worst pick-
Goodwin, WR (4th round)
Tricky draft here- a very sneaky good draft but no star
power and no real performances, yet, to confirm the potential that is
here. Knile Davis got things going in
round 2 and he has been a strong performer in limited roles. Taylor could be a breakout guy in Arizona
next season while Murray has the inside track on a workhorse role in Oakland.
Jordan Reed, Jacoby Jones, even Picks-Patrick…not bad in
rounds 5-6-7. Nemo's draft looks like it
has the most potential to move up or down and a lot of it will come down to
health (Reed) and performance (RB) in the next two seasons.
6. DFlam- top pick- Zac Stacy, RB (8th overall)…worst pick-
Barkley, QB (10th overall)
Tough call here for Flam as Stacy fell apart in year two and
played a major role in a season that fell far short of expectations. However, his rookie year surge was remarkable
and provided good return on the investment.
Patterson high in round 2 was also a promising player but
his start is still waiting to shine. I
like his odds to figure things out, albeit slowly. The rest of the draft was unremarkable.
Barkley provides the point of discussion here. I do not
think he was necessarily a bad idea, just poorly timed, as he probably would
have slid into the middle of round two, at least. With Geno still on the board and no QBs taken
in round 2, Barkley was just as much a reach as any player taken. Being beaten out by Sanchez in year two for the
backup job has many now considering him a total NFL bust.
5. Wiseman- Top pick- Bernard, RB (#1 overall)…Worst Pick-
Wilson, QB (round 3)
A fairly ho-hum draft class from Wiseman in his first
season. The #1 pick was gifted to him in
the final draft lottery ever involving the top selection and the result was
Bernard, perhaps the safest choice in a draft with many appealing options but
no sure #1 pick.
Wilson was a high third round pick, no sure thing, but he
was essentially out of the league when cut in training camp after his rookie
pre-season. Tough to bounce back from
that one…
Other picks were forgettable- Eifert has been held back by
inconsistent QB play, Bailey is likely a reserve WR. Wiseman may also have only made six picks in
this draft, underlining his inexperience and the league's general
disorganization.
4. Thompson- top pick- Lacy, RB (#5 overall)…worst pick-
Woods, WR (2nd round)
Not much to add here- Lacy is a strong keeper, Woods was a
bit of a whiff in round 2 but nothing unusual to miss in that part of a draft.
Nothing notable late on- Marquess Wilson was a sixth round
pick and has intrigue for the future but with the QB situation in total
upheaval in Chicago, I am not necessarily excited to roster the player at this
moment.
3. Malinn- top pick- Jennings, RB (6th round)…worst pick-
Ace Sanders, WR (4th round)
Not much to work with here- Malinn picked first in the
middle of round two (Wheaton). Jennings
turned out to be a pretty good late pickup- his performance earned a big
offseason contract with the Giants.
Stills was a nice touch in round 4.
Like with Brett, coming up- just a good example here of
avoiding bad picks- but no real star power to move him any higher in the
rankings.
2. Brett- top pick- Hopkins, WR (7th overall)…worst pick-
Landry Jones, QB (round 4)
In his final rookie draft, Brett provided a master class in
drafting for value and avoiding busts.
Hopkins is rounding into a stud WR prospect and highlights the top end
of the class. However, the depth here is
astonishing and provides the bulk of the high grade.
QB Geno Smith has proven usable in two shaky real-life
seasons while Michael is a tantalizing RB prospect scooped up at the end of round
1. Brett returned in round 4 to grab
Denard Robinson (traded this year for a #1) and Zach Ertz. Rounds 6 and 7 saw Riley Cooper and Mike
James join the fold.
1. Lee- Top pick- Bell, RB (#2 overall)…Worst pick- Tompkins,
WR (#13 overall)
Lee orchestrated a major draft day swap with Concannon,
getting the #2 pick and a 2nd round choice in exchange for a #1, #2, Witten,
and Hillman. At the time of writing,
Bell is the top keeper for next season, so a fine job from Lee in identifying
his man and moving up to get him.
Tompkins got cut mid-season this year after being relatively
non-useful from a fantasy perspective.
However, scooping up Ellington in the middle of round 2 elevates Lee to
one of the top slots for this year's draft class- if he stays healthy. Here's to hoping the slightly-built Cardinals
RB is used a little less (as in more wisely) to prevent the same injuries from
hampering him in the future.
Coming up Saturday…
I'll preview the #1 pick final- Tighe v Concannon- and dig
up those computer rankings…
Merry Christmas, all.
Tim
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