NFFL Week 16

NFFL Week 16 Preview

December 20, 2014

Coming down to the wire…let’s start small and work up…

NFFL #1 Pick Tournament- Semifinals

Concannon v Wiseman

After knocking top-scorer Wiseman out of the NFFL playoffs, the second-year man has a chance for direct revenge.  The commissioner enters this game on the back of two fairly ho-hum weeks after a red-hot tear saw him sneak into the playoff qualifying rounds.

The team news leading into this one is fairly quiet- Concannon will feel the impact of Allen’s injury but might benefit from improving on the second year Charger’s two total points over the past two weeks.  White is also limping, meaning potential recalls for Decker and Sanu in the lineup.  At RB, four (4!) top-20 RBs (by ESPN ranking) mean a tough call with Murray/Herron- if Murray is ruled out for Dallas, look for Randle to leapfrog both.

Sanchez is rolled out for another week…his struggles have coincided with this mini-slump so look for his output to sway the PB Tzar tally here.

Wiseman’s second chance sees injured players restored to the depleted Week 13 lineup.  Key men will be Watkins, Forsett, and Tate- players who have become a bit more inconsistent in the past month that Wiseman leaned on early.

News that Kaepernick has been dropped to bench might be a surprise to those still booting up Madden ’13 on their consoles…

The intrigue could come late here with Mannning/Bernard squaring off on MNF.  I would project that a 30 point PB Tzar lead would make the game about 50-50, though the recent history of those players might drop that number closer to 25…

Tighe v Malinn

Tighe’s top-heavy lineup squares off with Malinn’s empty backfield set.

Tighe holds, on paper, the advantage- Brees/Rodgers and the Thomas Bros. give him an edge in star power in all respects.  However, the emerging Odell ‘Bend Backwards To Catch It’ Beckham gives Malinn a little glitter of his own…

The key man here might be Josh Gordon- at this point, even Clipboard Jesus would be an improvement on Johnny Footsteps but Malinn will likely settle for Hoyer.  And who knows about the strategy of buffering against Brees with Stills/Colston?  Malinn might be inventing a new tactic, for all we know.

This one will likely come down to which role player steps up and scores a pair of touchdowns- Moncrief, Senior Senior, Eddie Royal for Tighe, Bryce Brown, the aforementioned Saints for Malinn.  And in a showdown of teams who were ultimately let down by their top picks in the same draft- RGIII, T-Rich- it might be high time for Trent Richardson 2.0 (yards per carry) to justify his lofty draft position by contributing to returning a high pick for his owner.

And now, for our main event…

NFFL Superbowl XV

Lee v Arbo

I actually think the number above might be wrong, but who cares?  Super Bowl week.

Lee limps into this game ahead of a wave of ridicule and complain from the league, boasting a starting roster of Nick TOON, Jonas GRAY, and the immortal Lance DUNBAR. #TheBigThree

Arbo, meanwhile, strolls in confidently after a dominant regular season behind star men Luck, Brown, and Murray.  Struggles from star players Johnson and McCoy were overcome behind those three while early flashes from Ingram and Hopkins helped the cause.

However, the big story here is Murray and the broken hand…

Who would have guessed he would get hurt?

Here we go- after hearing all year that Murray was getting too much work, Dallas sees its star man on the sidelines one week after taking control of the NFC East against Philly.  One hurdle short!  But what does this mean here?

Last week, Arbo faced TMac in a semi-final, scoring 100 points.  With Murray out, he likely goes with Landry, Nicks, or Hurns- a drop of 10-15 points.  TMac got 79, so it would not have mattered, but 85 points is no way to win a championship.

Week 14 was against the commissioner.  27 for Murray, same three, a drop of 15-20 in a week where the opponent hit 100.  Arbo hit 126, so again, he’s where he is now. 

Let’s look at it from one other perspective…in the words of Cris Collinsworth…here we go…

Basically, if Murray is out, Arbo is an average playoff team- about 90-105 a week.  Lee has hit, in the last two weeks, 154 and 109.  He would have beaten Arbo, with or without the Murray adjustment above, had they played the last two weeks.  If Arbo is in the 90-105 range this week, Lee is a pretty good bet to be there, too.

And, finally, Lee goes with Dunbar, who gets more work without Murray, and Bryant, who already gets plenty of work with Murray.  The argument that Bryant sees extra coverage without Murray is legit but irrelevant- this was the case in the past and Bryant did just fine.

Hmmm…

The other key battleground is at #2 QB.  For a Superbowl, this might be the worst such matchup in history- McCown v Carr.  Carr gets Buffalo, who held AARON RODGERS to about the same number of points as Matthew Slater has scored all season- my guess is we pencil Carr in for 10 at the most.  ‘

McCown might not be headed for a bronze bust in Canton but his matchup with Green Bay is OK and he has the weapons to score some points.  Advantage, Lee.

New York, New York, is tight end, tight end

Graham > Gates.

Rookie intrigue

I like the intersection here of Landry and Benjamin- one overhyped #1 pick, one a steady, solid contributor to a winning cause.  Summarizes my feeling about the matchup accurately.  Benjamin has upside here but I like Landry ahead of any of the big three.

Running backs win championships…

Although we have seen signs of life from Shady McCoy, Lee’s team exists for one reason only- Bell.  The Pittsburgh star has a dual role this week- score all of Lee’s points and make sure that he is so effective Big Ben does not even think about throwing the ball to Antonio Brown (Tighe nodding).

The edge with Bell has been so significant at times this year that I think he is my odds on favorite for Super Bowl MVP.

Bell: 5-1

Luck: 7-1

Shaaaaaaaaay-D: 10-1

Slater: 1000-1

Toon: ∞ - 1

Intangibles

The league is sick of Lee’s nonsense, which hints that the fantasy gods will punish us all and reward Lee with a 53-52 victory.

Prediction

See Three, The Big, above.  Who is Lee kidding?

Arbo 124 (104 without Murray), Lee 95

Next week

I reveal the highly questionable ‘computer rankings’ from last week and start analyzing past rookie drafts.

If anyone has this year’s draft nice and neatly typed up- preferably the same format as the past drafts posted on the blog- please send to me.  Otherwise, I’ll gather up the details in January.