Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Week 3 News and Notes

NFFL Week 3 recap
A wild week saw a number of teams respond in emphatic ways- overall, the scoring this week was the highest so far in 2015.

DFlam 135, Arbo 112
The biggest win of this week came from DFlam as AJ Green ensured that a week without Brees was not an excuse to drop to 0-3.  The second highest total scorer in the league, Flam is right back in the top four mix now with a W under his belt.

The coach goes back to the drawing board with perhaps the first order of business involving a flex position that is getting shakier each week.  With the usefulness of Kaepernick in question after a dismal outing and lacking a convincing WR1 option- Arbo will have a lot to consider in the build up to a critical week 4 matchup.

Tighe 133, Chessman 97
Tighe romps to a big win over the Big Cheese thanks to three 30’s- Rodgers, Smith SENIOR, and Freeman bringing the Busch latte cases home this time around.  The top heavy nature of this squad is not historically unusual but the ongoing struggles of CJ will be of major concern as the bye weeks hit.

Eifert and AJ Green combined for 34 points but unfortunately for Wiseman he held the empty end of that split.  The Chessman will need a new king as Big Ben limps off the board for his annual stint on the DL- perhaps a rook will do, if the Dorsett appearance is to be believed.  Carr has been a nice revelation as a QB2 and will need to carry the load for a team not equipped to lose a QB (read: has no backup QBs except for backup QBs).

TMac 120, Lee 101
Hot acquisition Terrance Williams is still picking up the offense- as evidenced by his zero points- but who needs him when you get five twenty spots and a strong crew of injured guys in White, Foster, and Cutler?  Well White is not hurt but that injury report is coming in HOT alongside the inevitable Andre Johnson ‘injury’- questionable (age)…the Morris thing is really concerning- guys like him have a history of falling off cliffs (Rudi Johnson?) so that situation bears watching.

The return of Bell saw Lee return to losing ways.  Getting an 8 from a QB is no recipe for success in these parts and Lee should be a bit concerned about Foles- just 40 points from three outings.  The Wiseman formation of starting multiple tight ends netted a total of two points- one per TE.

Thompson 102, Malinn 99
Top of the league?  Thompson?  The Cellar Dweller looks stellar and in a three-point game someone had the game winning score so let’s just say Bortles and one of his garbage time TDs did the trick.  A little over-reliant on the Falcons here so let’s see- who has Thompson during the HOT-LANTA bye week…(FLAM!)…otherwise Thompson might be headed toward a one-loss season.

A tight battle saw Malinn slam his forehead down on the panic button as it is getting a whee bit WIN-DEEEEEEEEEEEE in 0-3 city.  Rumors that Marcus ‘The Cat’ Mariotta wants OUT or at minimum a chance to show her friends back home what she can do should do nothing but add to the swirling trade talks.

Concannon 121, #1 Curran 112
Game of the week lives up to the billing here as it goes right down to Monday night.  The title still feels like it is Curran’s to lose but what is officially a slow start from Hill is cause for concern.  Is Blount back, or just gearing up for the annual ‘200 yard rushing night at Indy- then see ya later…’ tradition?

The Commish moves to 3-0 thanks to a competitively top-heavy attack.  The two QB setup is looking very solid as Mr. Manning begins to come around and with players soon returning from various injuries the bye weeks are looking navigable here for a sustained top four assault.  If anyone is looking for Andre Johnson- buy a carton of milk.

Sean 106, Nemo 56
Sean officially starts the wheeling and dealing season by picking up ‘The Jets QB situation’- I have a nice little prediction for him- if that team goes downhill Sean does not have the Jets starter in December.  How dare he not start Ryan Mathews when he got the call over the injured Murray- Yeldon at RB2 for this one smacks of ‘Concannon-itis’- defined as over-reliance on rookie picks combined with an insistence on proving how smart his draft picks were.  The football gods will surely punish him by causing Mathews to roll an ankle while pulling up his jock next weekend.

Not much to say for Nemo here- the Lynch injury early just about sums this one up after Ivory’s zero snap outing got things rolling downhill.  Everyone gets a loss like this per year so hopefully they saddle up quickly over there at Nemo HQ and move on to Cincinnati.

Trade and waiver analysis
*TMac trades QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and QB Geno Smith to Sean for QB Jimmy Clausen, WR Terrance Williams, and a 2016 4th round pick

Wooo, a big one!  Or so it seemed, anyway.  Sean picks up some QB flotsam in the form of the ‘Jets situation’ in exchange for a couple of weaks of Clausen and the intriguing Williams.  The trade is a classic now/later deal we see at this stage of the season- TMac can hang in with McCown until Cutler returns while Sean’s cast of cheaper receivers made Williams at least available, if not expendable.  It is notable that the QBs on each side were likely traded at their peak values…

A big factor here was the Romo injury- Williams likely sees a value drop there that offsets his gain from half a season as the #1- but I think I would still shade this deal to TMac a little.  That said, if I was stuck in Sean’s spot, getting this back would be a fairly good return- a solid deal for both sides.

*Vick @ $100 to Tighe, Rawls @ $99 to Lee
Lee and Tighe both hit $0 early in FAAB action as they scoop up this week’s hot pickups.  Vick is a known commodity (a shaky, injury prone one) but his legs should prove an asset during these coming bye weeks with the slight possibility of a trade…

Rawls is less known- unknown, actually- but could be in line for major duties in the event that this is THAT YEAR for Lynch- the bill comes due for every great bruising running back at some point. 

Other sneaky moves I liked:
*Riddick to Malinn could be a spot play with the ongoing chaos in the Lions backfield
*Ginn and Snead to Sean- both WRs are getting targets and although it is unlikely that they are the next Odell Beckham it is possible that we might have this year’s Charles Johnson among the duo- temporary solutions tend to become more permanent than expected on bad teams.
*Gray to Tighe will be intriguing if the Pats trade for him prior to the Indy game.  The entire Dolphins backfield situation is a mess at moment, exciting the only Jay Ajayi owner in the world.

 Week 4 preview
One o’clock games
Chessman v Malinn / Nemo v TMac / Tighe v Curran / Arbo v Concannon


Role reversal?- DFlam v Lee
DFlam has outscored Lee by a wide margin this year- naturally, Lee has a better record.  No flukes or excuses this week.  The key player here might be Brees for Flam- I like his odds on a night game in Dallas- but Winston is a solid backup.  Lee is currently hinting that new man Rawls will line up in the backfield with Eddie Royal out in the slot…uh oh.

Game of the Week- Thompson v Sean
No power ranking as of press time but Thompson is surely in the mix and, in any event, puts his undefeated status up against a squad held together with duct tape and chopsticks.  Thompson is rolling out touchdown reliant Woodhead, Benjamin, and Miller- so this one could get close if the Ryan-Jones connection is a little slow to go on Sunday.


Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Week 2 News and Notes

NFFL Week 2 recap
A week that saw half the league bit by that mysterious injury bug saw some surprise results and some unfortunate results on our standings…highlights:

*Curran’s second straight league leading week moved him to the top of the board
*Lee tied atop the standings with the tenth highest total points tally
*Four teams remain winless as the bye weeks loom

Lee 86, Sean 80
We start in sad-sack city- the Big D- well represented here and a number of players that crisscross rosters as a result.  The Romo injury was a big one here and in any six-point loss it could be termed the deciding factor.  Lee will consider that fair exchange for the loss of leading receiver Bryant…to which Sean may counter that Lee’s beloved ‘Davantes’ Adams had no value until Nelson went down.  Tough times, indeed.

Overall, Lee was able to sneak away with a handful of shaky calls- Williams had just five touches as a RB2 and Foles put up just ten points at QB.  The luck is likely run out soon…Sean will need to pick up the pieces as arguably his top three guys- Nelson, Romo, and Hyde- are all out or ready to sit.

Arbo 113, Nemo 105
The Coach and defending champion find the win column with a gutsy display against Nemo’s 3rd scoring team.  Sitting Allen Robinson was a move that did not bite back and gives Arbo another intriguing option going forward.  The status of QB Stafford will be a big story for a team lacking a backup QB.

Nemo was poised to move to 2-0 but should be encourage with another strong outing.  The starting lineup will continue to be menacing barring injury (barring injury!!!) so look for Nemo to remain a tough out early on.  What happens when that bug comes biting, or perhaps even just a series of bye weeks comes in, remains to be seen and depth will certainly need to be addressed to maintain a top four challenge.

#1 Curran 126, DFlam 95
Curran retains top spot with another league leading week.  Behind his outstanding QB play, Curran is almost a widely regarded lock for a top-four finish and is the current favorite among the bookmakers.  However, the early struggles of Hill and Jennings are cause for some alarm- there is not much behind those guys at RB.  Rumors of a Lewis-Palmer swap are being started in this sentence but should pick up steam moving forward…

Flam is our first of four winless squads but he has been OK so far.  Goose eggs from Allen and Abdullah hurt while Sankey returned to his 2014 form.  Fitzgerald presented himself as an option last week and could see a switch to a four-receiver set as soon as this week.  Despite the tough start, solid QB play and three top receivers mean Flam will likely sit tight and ride out a tough start.

Concannon 97, Malinn 85
There have been some good late-night battles over the years here but it was not to be thanks to the return of Luck to 2014 AFC Championship game form.  The commish saw injuries to non-essential personnel continue to mount but hung on thanks to fifteen from the late-sub Decker.  With the QBs clicking, league-leading depth elsewhere should allow the good times to continue.

Malinn would have expected more from his team after two weeks and the 0-2 start is surely cause for some concern.  With an extra QB at his disposal thanks to the Weeden ‘investment’- I think a deal is almost a guarantee before next week. 

Thompson 90, Tighe 71
Thompson ascends to 2-0 after a strong start.  With possible rookie breakout candidates in Jones and Johnson- could Thompson be the dark horse in the league after two weeks?  The QB play remains the only question but with signal callers dropping left and right- who is to say that Thompson is not among the well positioned at the moment?

Tighe drops to 0-2 and the injuries at the moment are not helping- all three RBs this week were impacted.  Freeman is the only other option here and his ascension in the wake of the Coleman injury could provide a temporary boost.  The slow start for Bradford might be of concern if things do not change and soon- however, Sanchez proved a capable deputy last season and could repeat those heroics, fantasy-wise, if a switch was made.

Chessman 105, TMac 82
The rolling dumpster fire barrels through TMac, sending the latter to 0-2.  Sideman has now started Parker for two straight games and the player has responded to his coach’s show of faith by tallying zero total points.  Depth does remain a minor issue here.  As long as Derek Carr can continue to approach thirty points per game- things should be just fine here.

Tmac will need to consider some emergency measures if the declines for White and Wallace have not been over exaggerated.  The Cutler injury is a minor cause for concern but with Picks-Patrick  ready to step in, the impact might be reduced.  TMac had to have been hoping to sneak a couple of wins, pre-Foster, but it looks like those hopes are quickly being dashed.

That damn injury bug!
We all hate that stupid bug…but who has caught it the worst?

Honorable mention must go to my sorry squad- although no major injuries outside of the gimpy Alshon Jeffrey- by my count thirteen players have been impacted, slowed, or stopped by injury so far in 2015- Wtten, Decker, Jeffrey, Coleman, Bell, White, Gurley, Mason, Cruz, Quick, Turbin, Herron, Ajayi.  That is half the roster!  Caveats must be made for those selected despite knowledge of said injury and, again, the lack of any impact guys going down- so we’ll sit here with honorable mention.

Third prize goes to Lee…the sheer volume of week one woes left us shellshocked.  Ellington, Hilton, and Bryant are key guys while Bell going down…oh, you mean he was not hurt?  Never mind him.   The Adams injury this week bears watching- all four guys starters on a team with a paper thin WR corps…

Second prize goes to Tighe- his squad struggled through a very targeted assault by said bug, with starting RB trio Lacy, Anderson, and Miller all impacted this week.  Low quantity, high quality could see the likes of Matt Asiata summoned in the worst case scenario this week.

And the winner…going going SLOD to Sean as the ROMO ROMO ROMO ROMO ROMO effect takes full hold.  The Nelson one was a tough break, the Hyde injury you hate to see to such a promising guy, but ROMO ROMO ROMO ROMO ROMO has long been a buyer beware around these parts and I am sure his injury came to the surprise of zero league members.

Waiver wire roundup
Lots of activity on the wire this week…

*Matthews to TMac- TMac picks up a sneaky option here ahead of Malinn and Tighe.  With 13 targets over two games, Matthews could be in the range of six to eight points over the next couple of games provided he maintains that early pace.

*Benjamin to Thompson- big activity on this bid as Thompson edges Sheckels, TMac, and Tighe.  Benjamin is very much a ‘boom or bust’ type here and with the QB situation in flux it remains to be seen how much value any Browns WR could carry.  A speculative gamble at that price.

*Gillmore, Crocket to DFlam- Twenty one bucks says I can be fantasy relevant again, any takers?  Gillmore returns to the scene after a brief cup of tea with Malinn last year.  Flacco’s preference for TEs makes this an interesting pickup going forward.

*Clausen to Sean- Sean picks up some extortion insurance here for a fee…but…

*McCown to DFlam- Flam makes an uncontested pickup here and at $58 to boot…needless to say, at $21 Flam now is at the bottom of the FAAB standings.  Can McCown step in and do a decent Brees impression?  If so, the price is right here as that would lock him in as a strong QB2 in this league.  However, the decline of the Saints offense has been alarming and significant.  Stay tuned.

 Week 3 preview- One o’clock games
Arbo v DFlam / Chessman v Tighe / Nemo v Sean

2-0 v 0-2
TMac v Lee
Malinn v Thompson

A pair of contests sees 2-0 squads battle winless opponents in games that could create some real definition in the standings.  Wins from Malinn and TMac should arrest early slumps while Thompson and Lee look to keep the good times rolling

Game of the Week
Concannon v #1 Curran

Generally, not a big fan of tooting my own horn in this space but a clash of 2-0 squads with the #1 ranked unit involved is generally not to be missed.  Curran has topped the scoreboard on two straight occasions but the commish has had the touch so far in 2015- yet another fine chapter in the Brady-Manning rivalry to be written this weekend (perhaps).


Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Week 1 News and Notes

NFFL Week 1 recap
A sluggish first week across the board for many saw just three teams crack the one hundred barrier and a top-three clash fizzle out into a battle of attrition…

Nemo 100, DFlam 99
The game of the week saw Nemo sneak past DFlam behind a subpar but sufficient ten points from last year’s first round choice, QB Bridgewater.  In what was a straightforward MNF matchup, the ten points proved a mighty struggle but the final result ended up being what many expected entering the week’s final game.

Nemo is off to a winning start but the depth is already being tested- Bush and Jackson both exited their games.  DFlam was letdown by just sixteen points from star WR trio Green, Beckham, and Sanders but should be able to bounce back nicely if his somewhat unreliable backfield holds up given his strong QB play.

Concannon 87, Tighe 82
Most likely a ‘game of the week’ given the lofty power rankings of the two squads- but this one was more dud than anything else.  It did come down to MNF as rookie RB Coleman made his case for the next great PB Tzar flex play rookie back with just enough conviction to hold off Bradford’s late surge.

The impending fantasy irrelevance of Manning may be coming a year early for the commish’s tastes- however, with Mallet in the fold the blow may be cushioned a tiny bit in a worst case scenario.  The squad has a sneaky large number of irrelevant injuries but the first team remains unscathed.  Tighe will no doubt be alarmed by the debut of Anderson in terms of both workload and output- however, any improvements to the squad will need to originate elsewhere thanks to a relatively thin RB corps.  Moncrief is one to watch in September- with starters Hilton and Johnson struggling in the opener, the talented year two man may see a significant boost in playing time.

Thompson 121, Chessman 81
Thompson holds off the dumpster fire with a fairly convincing win.  That said, the Woodhead performance could be more fluke than reliable and should see Thompson down towards more of the middle of the league going forward.  Playing Bortles over Smith is likely to not be replicated.

Where to go with Wiseman that the power rankings did not?  DeVante Parker played one snap out of the flex position and that about sums it up.  The injury to Carr hurt team output and the benching of Hoyer did not improve the backup situation- with little else on the bench, 81 could be a high-water mark for quite some time.

Sean 98, TMac 84
Sean picks up an opening W in week 1, showing that life after Jordy is going to be a little more feisty than some experts predicted.  Hyde showed RB1 potential in the late game and combined with Ryan ‘Touchdown Machine’ Mathews- TJ Yeldon- perhaps a workable arrangement is emerging in the backfield.  The bench showed enough life for optimism.

TMac will need to exercise a little patience- Foster is still out, for one- but the lack of options at RB/WR behind Morris (scored exactly 12 fantasy points for the 456th straight game, approximately) will require a closer look. 

Lee 87, Arbo 63
Heavy lies the crown…hard to tell which team is more disappointed.  Lee took the W and got some reassuring outings from his better lights- however, the injury list is longer than my patience to type it and all roads to the trade block run right through Lee.  Brandon Coleman is on the bench…more on him shortly.

Coach Arbo will likely have his team running extra wind sprints after an embarrassing outing to open his title defense.  Slow starts from AP and Olsen can be overlooked but some of the players he was relying on for breakouts really did not give much reason for hope.  The emergence, possibly, of Arbo favorite ASJ combined with a looming return for Gates could see Olsen hit the block early in the hopes of finding someone more useful for that flex position.

#1 Curran 132, Malinn 92
The year of Father Coffee?  A widely unexpected move to match Brady’s auction bid pays off handsomely here as #12 paced a balanced approach to defend the #1 ranking with style.  With Johnny Football finding his way onto the field and Palmer reportedly griping for more playing time- a deal could be had to further strengthen the current top dog.

A tough loss for Malinn but not much can be done against the leading scorer.  The Mariota party is in full force and presents options if Malinn tires of Newton early on.  There was not much going on behind the scenes here so patience with underperformers Watkins and Randle will be required prior to returns of Cruz/Bryant relegating Randle/Wheaton (respectively) to likely third fiddles in those passing attacks.

Week 2 Preview
A quiet waiver wire and lack of activity on the trade front indicate that teams are willing to wait another week, at least, to confirm any early hunches.  The week two slate:

Chessman v TMac   /   Concannon v Malinn   /   Arbo v Nemo

Notable matchups…

Thompson v Tighe
Tighe and Thompson square off just one week after opening performances did not meet power ranking expectations. 

Beth Israel Bowl- Sean v Lee
An injury to Nelson seemed to doom Sean and relegated him to an early 11th ranking- Lee countered last week for the medical crown by seeing approximately seventeen players admitted to the hospital.  The focus on Terrance Williams that may come due to the Bryant injury could be one particularly cruel path to 0-2 for Lee.

Game of the Week- DFlam v #1 Curran
DFlam posted a strong season opener but fell to Nemo in a tough one by just a single point.  Curran enters wedding weekend riding high- can Flam recover from disappointment to pick up a first win?

Quotes of the week
‘Mariota has 4 tds’- half of the league
I think I got a pretty good idea of who thought I was serious about picking him #1 and who thought I was bluffing.  A wildly impressive start for the young Titan, to be sure.

‘The start of the Brandon Coleman era’ -Lee
Lee was too busy dusting off his crystal ball to focus on writing his MNF update on time this week.  Oh well.  Coleman will be a part of the solution on a day that saw half of Lee’s team wind up in the hospital.

‘Football, glorious football’ –Sean, quoting (I believe) Dave Dameshek
Welcome back, everyone.  Good luck to all for the rest of the season.


Sunday, December 28, 2014

Wk 17 preview

2014 BCS Computer Rankings

Morning all,

Due to popular demand/complaint/inquiry, we at commissioner headquarters have decided to reveal the computer rankings published back in week 15 of the NFFL season.

The criteria was two-folder- first, I assigned each team the movie that best summarized their season.  I focused on the late nineties to keep it simple but some films did sneak out of that time block and some of the following might questionably be called ‘films’.  Tough shit.  Then, I ranked them based on just how much I enjoyed them.

Without further ado…

12. Nemo- Twister

A tough, tough year for Nemo as no matter how much he chased it, the fantasy gods responded with another cruel twist of fate- by the end of the season, not much remained that resembled the original landscape.

11. Thompson- Home Alone

Like the antagonists, this team endured a ton of punishment- the injury to Newton being most disappointing.  The best that Thompson can do here is to hope that there is no sequel.

10. Malinn- The Sixth Sense

I have to admit that I barely had a clue about what was going on throughout this team’s season but, in the end, turns out the team’s playoff chances were dead all along.

9. Tighe- Star Wars, Episode I

The much anticipated sequel to last year’s championship winner turned out to be a big disappointment.

8. Arbo- Jurassic Park

Hey guys, I have an idea- let’s resurrect Brett’s extinct team using some of the leftover DNA and hand the reins over to Arbo.  What could possibly go wrong?

7. Concannon- The Replacements

A fairly well regarded team saw the disappearance of the overrated star QB (Romo) coincide with what was surely the end of all playoff hopes.  But, the team was still able to sneak into the playoffs behind the washed up arm of the former college star (Sanchez).

6. Curran- Jerry Maguire

After leaving quite a few dollars on the table in the auction (SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!) and being let down by the pretty boy first round pick Tannehill, Curran can watch on with pride as the many rookie players that he believed in begin to show true NFL promise.

5. DFlam- The Real Slim Shady Video

Just a shambles the entire way- no one knew which player would make a fool of himself next.  Will a real quarterback please stand up?

4. Lee- Liar Liar

Where to begin…

3. TMac- Gladiator

TMac, usurped of a league crown by Lee early on, vows to get revenge and defend the concept of the ‘old league’ by battling face to face with the new emperor.  A valiant effort wins him the respect of all but ultimately his squad dies trying- at least Lee, too, was ultimately vanquished.

2. Sean- Jingle All The Way

A farce of a season which saw a number of overmatched owners waste considerable time and energy pursuing the mythical Turboman- Carlos Hyde- Sean may have cost himself a shot a championship by refusing to fork him over for what was rumored to be several first round draft picks and a minute alone with Malinn’s liquor cabinet.

1. Wiseman- Shawshank Redemption

Wrongfully accused of being a good team and living that lie in the prison of the league standings all season, Wiseman finally gained his freedom by crawling through 66 points of shit-smelling foulness in the first qualifying playoff round. 

Hey kids…

The NFFL 2014 season winds down to a conclusion as founding fathers Tighe and Concannon square off for the right to receive 500 poorly constructed trade offers from Lee this offseason.

As usual, week 17 presents a series of playing time questions that generally go unasked during the bulk of the NFL season- who will sit, who will play, etc- and the impact on fantasy matchups can be significant.  Fortunately, NFL teams tend to play hard despite being eliminated and this year's most likely candidates for playoff-rest (Indianapolis, New England) do not see any star names on these two resilient rosters.

Broadly speaking, these two rosters feature opposing approaches and those differences have only become more exaggerated over the month of December.  Tighe's squad is a classic stars and scrubs approach- Brees, Rodgers, Lacy, the Thomas Twins- while Concannon counters with a deeper unit that includes a league record fifteen (approximately) flex level running backs. 

Key games on the schedule in the context of this matchup include Denver-Oakland (Thomas x2 vs. Murray) and Green Bay-Detroit (Rodgers/Lacy v Bell).  If Mason is benched due to a shaky matchup with Seattle, add Indianapolis to that list (Moncrief v Herron).

Key Players
Tighe- Pick a Thomas…big games this season have been driven by big Denver performances and week 17 should be no exception.  Manning has looked shaky of late and the Thomas twins have suffered- look for a classic Manning performance against one of the worst teams in the league to get the talking heads yapping and Tighe's point total rolling.

Concannon- Flacco.  Subject to a trade between these two squads in mid-season, Flacco put up a major stinker last  week and a repeat showing could turn a 'consistent' team into a mediocre one quickly.  With Baltimore needing a playoff push against an eliminated opponent, I like his odds to get back on track before having his rights shipped to Thompson in the offseason.

Prediction?
As long as everyone gets equal playing time and a trophy afterward, I'll be happy.  Would be nice to scoop up that one pick, though.

What next?

I am going to try and get everything done ASAP this year in terms of being ready to auction next summer.  That means numbers, getting rules down on paper, etc.  Obviously, I say I’ll do this every year, so be skeptical, but I think I have a good setup this time around.

Any ideas or suggestions- send my way.

Any potentially helpful documents- my way, please.

Rule changes- let me know- I love discussing rule changes.


Tim

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Xmas Special- 2013 Rookie Draft review


NFFL Blog- Christmas Edition

 

Good morning all,

 

In what I suspect is not nearly as much of an annual tradition as I think it is- the annual Christmas day blog post!

 

Congratulations first to Arbo, winner of his first league Superbowl after returning to us after a multi-year exile.  His squad cruised against #1 seed Lee despite letdown showings from star men Luck and Murray to finalize his stamp on what was quite a strange season by league standards.

 

No need for Lee to hang his head- his team had its issues throughout the campaign but was able to overcome many of those through deft management and consistent big games from star players.  Going into next season, Bell will form the nucleus of what should be another strong championship contender.

 

I hinted last week that we would do a (self-indulgent) run down of the computer rankings from two weeks back.  Whoops…left that stuff at my apartment.  We will need to settle for one of my standbys…rookie draft lookback.  Given the value of Bell in this league at the moment, let's go with 2013.

 

NFFL Rookie Draft Power Rankings- 2013

12. Concannon- top pick- Franklin, RB (round 2)…worst pick- Lattimore, RB (2nd round)

Perhaps a minor asterisk deserved here- a flurry of trades saw Concannon pick up extra picks in 2014 plus veterans Witten and Hillman.  Still, starting with the #2 overall pick in such a strong year and ending up with Ryan Nassib as the only potential 2015 keeper is a failure.

Franklin's memorable week 3 cameo in Cincinnati justifies his high selection- the promising back saw a career cut short by neck injury.  Lattimore's promising career was also cut short, in college, and thus the gamble here did not pay off.  Randle and Polk have shown signs of life this season while Nassib could take over for a fading Eli Manning at some point.  But no value, no real keepers here.

 

11. TMac- Top pick- Hunter, WR (round 4)…worst pick- Austin, WR (#4 overall)

With two top four selections, TMac appeared in prime position to solidify a contender for the next two to three years.  Instead, he ends up with prime bust Austin and Denver's disappointing Montee Ball at #3.  I am not quite ready to give up on Austin but he might be a new team away from being used effectively as a fantasy option.  Ball- we just have not seen it.

Looking back, Lacy at #5 and Hopkins at #7 would have been preferred.

Trading expertise allowed TMac to package the promising Hunter with a #1 pick to get Charles.  Although Charles did not help deliver the title, the trade was the right move ten times out of ten and at the very least provides some value from this class.

Some interesting late names here- Kelce, Kerwynn Williams- who have popped up with value this season bumps up the grade a slight bit.

 

10. Sean- top pick- Terrance Williams, WR (3rd round)…worst pick- Hernandez, TE (6th round)

Not a terrible return in his rookie year- Charles Johnson has come around after landing in Minnesota and EJ Manual was both serviceable in year one and a key trade chip in year two. 

Still, some other alternatives in round 1 would have proved better building blocks and the Hernandez selection in round 6 shows a clear lack of understanding regarding the basics of both the legal and keeper systems. 

Grabbing McCoy and Orton in the last two rounds was more like it- high upside backup QBs behind fragile or shaky starters.

 

9. Curran- top pick- Glennon (round 3)…worst pick- Sudfeld, TE (round 3)

A fairly forgettable draft day for Curran.  His first pick was at #22 (Da'Rick Rogers) but getting Glennon three picks later was quite a move. 

Understanding the Sudfeld pick is the key to understanding the Father Coffee draft day mantra- get up early, write the Patriots names on a napkin, and open a beer.  Sometimes it does OK (Blount came aboard two weeks later) and sometimes you get Sudfeld.

 

8. Tighe- top pick- Keenan Allen, WR (2nd round)…worst pick- Dobson, WR (9th overall)

Allen was a terrific round 2 choice and provided almost historically strong rookie year production.  A slow start saw him shipped out in year two but late signs of life make it clear that Allen has top-20 WR potential for years to come.

Dobson was a classic NFFL choice- high upside Patriot a few spots early.  On the other hand, easy to look back with 20-20 hindsight as this pick was regarded as a solid choice at the time.  Dobson might still come around but at this point has not provided much fantasy value for the investment.

 

7. Nemo- top pick- Murray, RB (3rd round)…worst pick- Goodwin, WR (4th round)

Tricky draft here- a very sneaky good draft but no star power and no real performances, yet, to confirm the potential that is here.  Knile Davis got things going in round 2 and he has been a strong performer in limited roles.  Taylor could be a breakout guy in Arizona next season while Murray has the inside track on a workhorse role in Oakland.

Jordan Reed, Jacoby Jones, even Picks-Patrick…not bad in rounds 5-6-7.  Nemo's draft looks like it has the most potential to move up or down and a lot of it will come down to health (Reed) and performance (RB) in the next two seasons.

 

6. DFlam- top pick- Zac Stacy, RB (8th overall)…worst pick- Barkley, QB (10th overall)

Tough call here for Flam as Stacy fell apart in year two and played a major role in a season that fell far short of expectations.  However, his rookie year surge was remarkable and provided good return on the investment.

Patterson high in round 2 was also a promising player but his start is still waiting to shine.  I like his odds to figure things out, albeit slowly.  The rest of the draft was unremarkable.

Barkley provides the point of discussion here. I do not think he was necessarily a bad idea, just poorly timed, as he probably would have slid into the middle of round two, at least.  With Geno still on the board and no QBs taken in round 2, Barkley was just as much a reach as any player taken.  Being beaten out by Sanchez in year two for the backup job has many now considering him a total NFL bust.

 

5. Wiseman- Top pick- Bernard, RB (#1 overall)…Worst Pick- Wilson, QB (round 3)

A fairly ho-hum draft class from Wiseman in his first season.  The #1 pick was gifted to him in the final draft lottery ever involving the top selection and the result was Bernard, perhaps the safest choice in a draft with many appealing options but no sure #1 pick.

Wilson was a high third round pick, no sure thing, but he was essentially out of the league when cut in training camp after his rookie pre-season.  Tough to bounce back from that one…

Other picks were forgettable- Eifert has been held back by inconsistent QB play, Bailey is likely a reserve WR.  Wiseman may also have only made six picks in this draft, underlining his inexperience and the league's general disorganization.

 

4. Thompson- top pick- Lacy, RB (#5 overall)…worst pick- Woods, WR (2nd round)

Not much to add here- Lacy is a strong keeper, Woods was a bit of a whiff in round 2 but nothing unusual to miss in that part of a draft.

Nothing notable late on- Marquess Wilson was a sixth round pick and has intrigue for the future but with the QB situation in total upheaval in Chicago, I am not necessarily excited to roster the player at this moment.

 

3. Malinn- top pick- Jennings, RB (6th round)…worst pick- Ace Sanders, WR (4th round)

Not much to work with here- Malinn picked first in the middle of round two (Wheaton).  Jennings turned out to be a pretty good late pickup- his performance earned a big offseason contract with the Giants.  Stills was a nice touch in round 4.

 

Like with Brett, coming up- just a good example here of avoiding bad picks- but no real star power to move him any higher in the rankings.

 

2. Brett- top pick- Hopkins, WR (7th overall)…worst pick- Landry Jones, QB (round 4)

In his final rookie draft, Brett provided a master class in drafting for value and avoiding busts.  Hopkins is rounding into a stud WR prospect and highlights the top end of the class.  However, the depth here is astonishing and provides the bulk of the high grade.

QB Geno Smith has proven usable in two shaky real-life seasons while Michael is a tantalizing RB prospect scooped up at the end of round 1.  Brett returned in round 4 to grab Denard Robinson (traded this year for a #1) and Zach Ertz.  Rounds 6 and 7 saw Riley Cooper and Mike James join the fold.

 

1. Lee- Top pick- Bell, RB (#2 overall)…Worst pick- Tompkins, WR (#13 overall)

Lee orchestrated a major draft day swap with Concannon, getting the #2 pick and a 2nd round choice in exchange for a #1, #2, Witten, and Hillman.  At the time of writing, Bell is the top keeper for next season, so a fine job from Lee in identifying his man and moving up to get him.

 

Tompkins got cut mid-season this year after being relatively non-useful from a fantasy perspective.  However, scooping up Ellington in the middle of round 2 elevates Lee to one of the top slots for this year's draft class- if he stays healthy.  Here's to hoping the slightly-built Cardinals RB is used a little less (as in more wisely) to prevent the same injuries from hampering him in the future.

 

Coming up Saturday…

I'll preview the #1 pick final- Tighe v Concannon- and dig up those computer rankings…

 

Merry Christmas, all.

 

Tim

Saturday, December 20, 2014

NFFL Week 16

NFFL Week 16 Preview
December 20, 2014

Coming down to the wire…let’s start small and work up…

NFFL #1 Pick Tournament- Semifinals
Concannon v Wiseman

After knocking top-scorer Wiseman out of the NFFL playoffs, the second-year man has a chance for direct revenge.  The commissioner enters this game on the back of two fairly ho-hum weeks after a red-hot tear saw him sneak into the playoff qualifying rounds.

The team news leading into this one is fairly quiet- Concannon will feel the impact of Allen’s injury but might benefit from improving on the second year Charger’s two total points over the past two weeks.  White is also limping, meaning potential recalls for Decker and Sanu in the lineup.  At RB, four (4!) top-20 RBs (by ESPN ranking) mean a tough call with Murray/Herron- if Murray is ruled out for Dallas, look for Randle to leapfrog both.

Sanchez is rolled out for another week…his struggles have coincided with this mini-slump so look for his output to sway the PB Tzar tally here.

Wiseman’s second chance sees injured players restored to the depleted Week 13 lineup.  Key men will be Watkins, Forsett, and Tate- players who have become a bit more inconsistent in the past month that Wiseman leaned on early.

News that Kaepernick has been dropped to bench might be a surprise to those still booting up Madden ’13 on their consoles…

The intrigue could come late here with Mannning/Bernard squaring off on MNF.  I would project that a 30 point PB Tzar lead would make the game about 50-50, though the recent history of those players might drop that number closer to 25…

Tighe v Malinn

Tighe’s top-heavy lineup squares off with Malinn’s empty backfield set.

Tighe holds, on paper, the advantage- Brees/Rodgers and the Thomas Bros. give him an edge in star power in all respects.  However, the emerging Odell ‘Bend Backwards To Catch It’ Beckham gives Malinn a little glitter of his own…

The key man here might be Josh Gordon- at this point, even Clipboard Jesus would be an improvement on Johnny Footsteps but Malinn will likely settle for Hoyer.  And who knows about the strategy of buffering against Brees with Stills/Colston?  Malinn might be inventing a new tactic, for all we know.

This one will likely come down to which role player steps up and scores a pair of touchdowns- Moncrief, Senior Senior, Eddie Royal for Tighe, Bryce Brown, the aforementioned Saints for Malinn.  And in a showdown of teams who were ultimately let down by their top picks in the same draft- RGIII, T-Rich- it might be high time for Trent Richardson 2.0 (yards per carry) to justify his lofty draft position by contributing to returning a high pick for his owner.

And now, for our main event…

NFFL Superbowl XV
Lee v Arbo

I actually think the number above might be wrong, but who cares?  Super Bowl week.

Lee limps into this game ahead of a wave of ridicule and complain from the league, boasting a starting roster of Nick TOON, Jonas GRAY, and the immortal Lance DUNBAR. #TheBigThree

Arbo, meanwhile, strolls in confidently after a dominant regular season behind star men Luck, Brown, and Murray.  Struggles from star players Johnson and McCoy were overcome behind those three while early flashes from Ingram and Hopkins helped the cause.

However, the big story here is Murray and the broken hand…

Who would have guessed he would get hurt?

Here we go- after hearing all year that Murray was getting too much work, Dallas sees its star man on the sidelines one week after taking control of the NFC East against Philly.  One hurdle short!  But what does this mean here?

Last week, Arbo faced TMac in a semi-final, scoring 100 points.  With Murray out, he likely goes with Landry, Nicks, or Hurns- a drop of 10-15 points.  TMac got 79, so it would not have mattered, but 85 points is no way to win a championship.

Week 14 was against the commissioner.  27 for Murray, same three, a drop of 15-20 in a week where the opponent hit 100.  Arbo hit 126, so again, he’s where he is now. 

Let’s look at it from one other perspective…in the words of Cris Collinsworth…here we go…

Basically, if Murray is out, Arbo is an average playoff team- about 90-105 a week.  Lee has hit, in the last two weeks, 154 and 109.  He would have beaten Arbo, with or without the Murray adjustment above, had they played the last two weeks.  If Arbo is in the 90-105 range this week, Lee is a pretty good bet to be there, too.

And, finally, Lee goes with Dunbar, who gets more work without Murray, and Bryant, who already gets plenty of work with Murray.  The argument that Bryant sees extra coverage without Murray is legit but irrelevant- this was the case in the past and Bryant did just fine.

Hmmm…

The other key battleground is at #2 QB.  For a Superbowl, this might be the worst such matchup in history- McCown v Carr.  Carr gets Buffalo, who held AARON RODGERS to about the same number of points as Matthew Slater has scored all season- my guess is we pencil Carr in for 10 at the most.  ‘
McCown might not be headed for a bronze bust in Canton but his matchup with Green Bay is OK and he has the weapons to score some points.  Advantage, Lee.

New York, New York, is tight end, tight end

Graham > Gates.

Rookie intrigue

I like the intersection here of Landry and Benjamin- one overhyped #1 pick, one a steady, solid contributor to a winning cause.  Summarizes my feeling about the matchup accurately.  Benjamin has upside here but I like Landry ahead of any of the big three.

Running backs win championships…

Although we have seen signs of life from Shady McCoy, Lee’s team exists for one reason only- Bell.  The Pittsburgh star has a dual role this week- score all of Lee’s points and make sure that he is so effective Big Ben does not even think about throwing the ball to Antonio Brown (Tighe nodding).

The edge with Bell has been so significant at times this year that I think he is my odds on favorite for Super Bowl MVP.

Bell: 5-1
Luck: 7-1
Shaaaaaaaaay-D: 10-1
Slater: 1000-1
Toon: - 1

Intangibles

The league is sick of Lee’s nonsense, which hints that the fantasy gods will punish us all and reward Lee with a 53-52 victory.

Prediction

See Three, The Big, above.  Who is Lee kidding?

Arbo 124 (104 without Murray), Lee 95

Next week

I reveal the highly questionable ‘computer rankings’ from last week and start analyzing past rookie drafts.


If anyone has this year’s draft nice and neatly typed up- preferably the same format as the past drafts posted on the blog- please send to me.  Otherwise, I’ll gather up the details in January.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

NFFL Week 15- Preview

Week 15 Preview

League-

The biggest single week of the NFFL season is upon us.  For some, this represents a shot at redeeming a lost season by winning the #1 overall selection (Mariotta Bowl?) and having a head start on winning trophies in 2015.  For others, the real season starts now- two games away from the coveted honor of being crowned league champion.  For Lee, who knows, maybe he found a horseshoe to shove up his rear end- just in case he used up all his good luck through the first fourteen weeks.

In any event, from this point onward, a loss means the season is over.  Good luck to all teams this weekend.

2014 Playoff B(C)S Power Rankings

Or BS for short.

Rankings consist of three criteria- seeding (based on regular season finish, adjusted for any qualifying round success), form (last four weeks, averaged), and the finely tuned computer rankings.  I am sure everyone will find these rankings to be a fair reflection of their team’s relative position.

Team (seed ranking, form ranking, computer ranking)
12. Nemo (12, 12, 11)
11. Thompson (10, 9, 12)
10. Malinn (9, 10, 9)
9. DFlam (11, 11, 5)
8. Curran (8, 6, 6)
7. Tighe (5, 5, 9)
6. Concannon (6, 4, 7)
5. Wiseman (7, 7, 1)
4. Arbo (3, 3, 8)
3. Sean (4, 8, 2)
2. Lee (1, 2, 4)
1. TMac (2, 1, 3)

Looks like those computer rankings will need a debug…

2014 Number One Pick Tournament- Quarterfinals
Thompson v Tighe

Tighe is the paper favorite here, having outscored Thompson 108-90 over the past four and managing 91- a score that would beat Thompson in any week but last- despite one of the sorriest performances from the Thomas Twins that I can recall.

Tighe is vulnerable to an upset- injuries are ongoing and Moncrief is unproved- but Thompson is plenty banged up himself (understatement) and will need performances from the unproven likes of West, Floyd, or Locker. 

Nemo v Concannon

The commish saw a promising start halted by a surging Arbo but finds himself with a strong draw here against Nemo.  Four week form favors the Tzar, 113-63.

Intrigue in the form of a three-point start from Tre Mason and the return of Wilson/Murray against former clubs makes this an interesting showdown but the likely bet is that Nemo ends a forgettable campaign in this upcoming week.

Wiseman v Curran

Likely the glamour cup matchup for the neutrals here, Curran’s four week form compares nicely to Wiseman, 100-92, as the second year man has seen his squad fade late with injuries and ineffectiveness among key players.

Curran rolls out rookie QB Manziel here in the process of setting what I believe will be a league record in starting four rookies while the Gronk/Brady cross matchup will keep things interesting.  This one could get really interesting late with Forte the lone MNF participant- having suffered already in the qualifying round, Curran will prefer to avoid any more tense moments by building a big lead Sunady.

Malinn v Flam

An intersection of disappointing seasons here, Malinn looks the better bet to progress based on form (90-70) and a more impressive lineup in general.  Questions abound in many areas for Flam and any dud performances should bring the season to a conclusion.

Malinn will be a sneaky pick for the #1 pick- with more picks than any other squad already, a win in this competition could see him among the early favorites for the 2015 crown.

2014 NFFL Semi Finals

The semi final draw is set with two newcomers in the NFFL playoffs joining the established Lee and solid TMac.  With only Lee having won a Superbowl, it looks likely that a new champion will emerge from this quartet.

Lee, the regular season champion, chose Sean as his opponent.  Let’s start there…

Sean @ Lee

Tough draw for Sean.  Form favors Lee- 120 to 90, with no single week in the four where Sean outscored Lee.  Injuries abound in all areas for the league’s youngest owner- and despite a solid start from Kerwynn Williams, it looks unlikely for Sean.

Lee, the #1 seed, is nobody’s idea of a favorite.  Storm Johnson and James Starks were both spotted warming up pre-game…surely not?  History favors the RB heavy teams late in the year- so it will be interesting indeed as this one plays out…

Key games include Dallas-Philadelphia as Romo will be throwing to Bryant on SNF.  MNF will feature Jimmy Graham, looking for a third straight zero, but this one looks likely to be decided prior to that point.  If Sean can get a big one from Foster and a healthy D-Jax, there is certainly upset potential against a shaky Lee outfit.

Arbo @ Tmac

The big one- both squads have average over 110 points over the last four but the relevant measure may be the last two weeks- Tmac with 113 and 134, Arbo with 155 and 126- which hint at two teams peaking in the right stage of the year.

A lot to like about this one from a neutral point of view- Arbo with Ingram on MNF, TMac with the Cutler/Bennett duo- while there is plenty of star power in McCoy, Murray, Lynch, Charles at the RB spots.  The old adage, mentioned above, is that QB gets teams into the playoffs, RBs win it- but no clear advantage there.

Close games like these can turn on key performances but with so many big players it may come down to a dud.  I like TMac’s team a little more in this regard- it is a solid lineup throughout.  Arbo may be concerned a bit with Carr/Hopkins/Ingram being the likely three worst players involved- though the latter two can go off for big games.  The performance from that trio should dictate the outcome- about 35 points should keep it even, anything more might tip the scales in Arbo’s direction.