Monday, July 29, 2013

Rule change- #1 pick playoff tournament



July 28, 2013

Hi league,

As stated earlier, my goal is to fully explain my vision and philosophy for this league and make a full argument to support my idea for having an end of the season tournament for the #1 pick in the rookie draft.

Since I began the league in 2002 with our own ‘Original Six’, I have tried to ensure that the NFFL maximizes what is great about fantasy football while minimizing some of the negative features that many feel is ‘required’ to have a strong league.   Over time, I have tried many things to constantly move the league toward these two goals with mixed success- no defenses, no kickers, the league cup, the keeper format, the rookie draft, the website, my articles, on and on- but I think this idea up for vote now is the most significant to achieve these goals.

What I consider to be great about fantasy football covers two main areas.  In terms of the game itself, I love how it is a test of understanding both what has happened in the NFL to that point and how those events will impact the games that will happen in the future.  I think this ‘test’ should be a reflection of skill over luck and have tried to make the league reflect that by dropping kickers and defenses, the two flukiest positions, and spending considerable time trying to balance the schedule and make sure the playoffs are made up of only the most deserving teams.  The keeper element and 25-man roster, to a lesser extent, also tilt our league away from luck and more towards a test of skill.

I also feel very strongly that connection among the league members is a vital element of any great league.  As we move through the stages of life, staying in touch becomes more challenging.  This challenge will only increase over time as we spread out geographically and prioritize other pursuits over maintaining all of our old social ties.  The league is a great way to lessen that challenge and the keeper element is a very critical part of making this league a year-round tool to make it a little easier to keep everyone connected.

These two ideas form the foundation of what we can call, for now, my philosophy on what this league should be about.  In a list format, I came up with four core ideas and the one crucial principle for what I try to do each time I think, write, or speak about the league.

1. The league must be as fun as possible for as many of the NFL weeks as possible
2. The league must maximize competition without relying on luck or fluke to create artificial competition
3. League performance should reflect both football knowledge and league passion to the greatest extent possible
4. Any idea or concept that increases connection among league members must be strongly considered

Underlying principle- The league must create incentives for members to do everything possible to contribute to these first four ideas at all times

I am going to address each of these core ideas, circle back to what I consider the underlying principle, then make my final case for rule changes that we have discussed.

1. Fun- the league has to be fun.  For many, this is the only league that truly matters.  I think we do a strong job in this area and for the future only have a couple of minor ideas.

First, I want to continue simplifying the rules.  This is ongoing but we are nearly there. 

Second, I want to make access to our information simpler.  The keeper and rights spreadsheet was a hit, the blog has been a plus, and getting everyone’s official contact information and preferences will move us forward.

Finally, I think we should invest some of our resources toward making the auction a true day of celebration and perhaps consider an end of season banquet or competition.  With $1100 in entry fees (and $1200 starting next year) we can afford to move some money toward food on auction day or toward an end of season party or competition.

2. Competition- we have tried to strip luck out of the league as much as possible and I am happy with where we stand now on our starting lineups and scheduling.  In particular, the move to go from 2-QB to 1 QB, one all flex was massive.  Adding two teams will increase competition as well. 

The issue now is the integrity of the regular season.  I firmly believe that winning the regular season is a massive accomplishment given how this league is structured.  However, at the moment we are not doing all we can for this.  With the way trades happen in our league, schedules become unbalanced and teams on the fringes of playoff spots are impacted.  I also worry about the day when a team loses the season championship and the $500 prize due to an opponent winning against a cupcake during the rivalry week ‘showdown’. 

The other luck element that is significant is the lottery.  I think the lottery worked fine but I am in favor of any system where merit, not fluke, rewards our league members.  The proposal to play for draft order in the top eight is a strong one and I think will make both the trade market for fringe players and the waiver wire a much more significant part of the league than it has been in the past.

3. Football knowledge- this is a tricky one because the obvious question is, with 25 man rosters, how can the league not reflect football knowledge?  I agree to an extent.  However, the scheduling issue I mentioned above is massive.  I also want to address what is bothering me about trading picks.

One complex issue in our league is ‘tanking’.  I hear the term a lot and use it myself more than needed.  I, and no one else, really feels anyone is ‘tanking’.  The lottery has more or less eliminated the reward and no starting lineup in the last three years has truly had a near zero chance of winning a given game.  However, the way the trade structure is organized now does hurt losing teams that retain their entire lineup in future seasons.

I want to create a setup where losing teams build into the future using football knowledge, not the knowledge that one is a better number than two, to make a stronger team for future years.  There is nothing fundamentally wrong with how trades have happened so far but I do think the idea that there is an open trade market is garbage.  In the history of the league, teams looking to trade off assets have more or less had one trade partner available to them at any given time.  If a deal is not struck, the losing team is punished.  This is not an even exchange and does not reflect an open trade market.

Any time a top player is dealt, it should reflect interest in the player, not a losing team’s desperation to offload.  Using a ‘top four’ protected system for trading first round picks should be a major boost in that direction.  Teams that retain top players and fight for the top picks will have the chance to move from the middle of the first round to the top.  In the past, this has proven a huge difference- study our rookie drafts to see how, after picks three to six in a given year, the draft degenerates into a massive crapshoot.

4. Connection- this is more of a ‘soft’ point because anything toward this goal will not impact weekly point totals.  However, as the league takes on more of what used to be my responsibilities, I can try some new things to improve here.  I want to do a podcast this year- basically, record the many great conversations that I have with you guys about the league.

I also want to introduce a week 17 only league cup.  For anyone interested, this means getting together on that Sunday, doing a 9 player auction, and seeing who ends the week with the highest point total.  It would also a be a good excuse to have a couple of cold ones and recap the season- essentially, an end of season banquet. 

The underlying principle- to make this league fun, competitive, and about football knowledge, we need to have a setup where the goal is to score as many points as possible in week 15.  I choose week 15 because to be as good as possible in week 15, an entire season must be dedicated to building a strong roster.  The playoffs start in week 15, meaning that the top four have their incentives perfectly set.  The eight teams that miss the playoffs will, if in competition for a top pick, now have the same incentive.

In other words, the 'boom or bust' incentive structure- compete, and if out, dismantle- gives way to one where the incentives are now tilted towards being active and competitive all year.  In my mind, the way we have set up so far has not really created this incentive for all teams in a given season- most of the time, dismantling was the right move.  I feel that the rule change addresses this problem for losing teams while also keeping the option to overpay available to the contenders.

Incorporating the ‘top four’ protection is a great boost to the teams in the 5-8 range.  Those teams can make a playoff push and use the first round pick as a tool to build.  However, they will not be punished in the same way as the past by being dropped toward the bottom of the first round if they do not get pulled from the lottery hat.  Instead, if they win a top four pick with their stronger team, the protection provision will allow them to keep it and trade next season’s pick instead.  Thus, instead of the worst teams moving on  with the keepers they gutted their rosters for and higher draft choices, the rewards are now slanted toward the league members that know football and work hard all year to apply that knowledge in their team building- even if the playoffs become out of reach. 

As traded first round picks become less valuable- since only picks at #5 overall and after can be dealt due to the top four protection- teams will now need to rely more on football knowledge to acquire possible keepers during the trade window.  The need to win one’s way into a top pick will also make football knowledge more significant and make trading, working waivers, and starting the right players much more important than in the past.

The rule change will also emphasize the need to be active and reward those with outstanding league passion.  We have had problems with inactivity in the past but the rule changes will naturally punish teams that sit out from waivers, fail to work the trade market, and start injured or inactive players.  To make this point even stronger, I am willing to force any team that makes a lineup error- starting inactive players- to pick last in each round of the next year’s rookie draft.

Finally, and most importantly, this rule change will make it possible for everyone to enjoy the NFL and NFFL seasons for as many weeks as possible.  For 15 weeks, at least, there will be something to play and build for, reasons to think, talk, and write about our league.  That is all that really matter here, all that this league needs to be about, and the only angle I am really coming from.

Nothing, to me, seems like a bigger waste than a team having little to play for after seven shaky weeks to start a season.  Each NFL year only lasts four months; each season only lasts seventeen weeks.  We should do what we can to make the most of those limited weeks and create a league where we encourage every team to finish as high as possible without diluting the playoffs or creating artificial schemes involving extra auction money or draft picks.  This last point is what I like most about the idea- each week will now count in a way more significant than ever before. 

I hope my stance and reasoning came across clearly to everyone.  Thank you all for the contributions so far and let me know if you have questions or concerns.

Tim

Sunday, February 10, 2013

2013 Draft Pick List

Draft Pick List by team- 2013 and 2014
As of February 9, 2013


Brett
2013 1st Round
2013 1st Round (Nemo)
2013 1st Round (Malinn)
2013 2nd Round
2013 3rd Round
2013 4th Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 1st Round
2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

Concannon
2013 1st Round (via Nemo and Malinn)
2013 2nd Round
2013 2nd Round (Tmac via Malinn)
2013 2nd Round (Malinn)
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 1st Round
2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 3rd Round (Malinn)
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

Curran
2013 1st Round
2013 2nd Round
2013 3rd Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 1st Round
2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

Dflam
2013 1st Round (Tighe)
2013 2nd Round
2013 2nd Round (Tighe via Malinn)
2013 3rd Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 1st Round
2014 1st Round (Malinn)
2014 1st Round (Tighe)
2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

Lee
2013 1st Round
2013 2nd Round
2013 3rd Round
2013 4th Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 1st Round
2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

Malinn
2013 3rd Round (Concannon)
2013 3rd Round (Tighe)
2013 3rd Round
2013 4th Round (Concannon)
2013 4th Round (Dflam)
2013 4th Round (Curran)
2013 4th Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 2nd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

Nemo
2013 2nd Round
2013 3rd Round
2013 4th Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 1st Round
2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

Thompson
2013 1st Round
2013 2nd Round
2013 3rd Round
2013 4th Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 1st Round
2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

Tighe
2013 4th Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

TMac
2013 1st Round
2013 1st Round (Dflam)
2013 3rd Round
2013 4th Round
2013 5th Round
2013 6th Round
2013 7th Round

2014 1st Round
2014 2nd Round
2014 3rd Round
2014 4th Round
2014 5th Round
2014 6th Round
2014 7th Round

All NFFL teams have full 2015 draft selection list

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Superbowl XI

 NFFL Superbowl XI Preview

#1 Malinn (12-3) v Nemo (11-4)

Both Nemo and Malinn advanced last week in a pair of very tight games to reach this stage- Nemo beating rival Tighe while Malinn held on against a late, late surge from Curran.  Each has found himself lacking in recent championships- Nemo winning one in the six-team era, Malinn yet to find himself a week 16 winner- so the matchup will be sure to bring a deserving league member to a long cherished prize.  On to the preview…

Lineup Projection
Malinn: Manning-Marshall-White-Richardson-BGE-Graham-Cruz-Moreno
Nemo: Ryan-Johnson-Johnson-Rice-Martin-Miller-Cobb-Wallace-Dalton

Nemo’s lineup has written itself of late- after the trade for Wallace, James Jones has returned to the bench while RBs Woodhead and Jones-Drew are unlikely to feature.  Not much new from last week- this is a solid group with a very high likelihood of settling in at 105-115 points.

Malinn has a more variable situation.  Manning and Brees are locks, as is Graham despite his struggles with injury.  Cruz should line up opposite Marshall as a strong 1-2 WR punch while rookie Richardson is the RB1.  Questions start quickly, though, due to a combination of shaky play and a strong bench. 

At RB, BGE and Moreno represent the hot hands while Greene and Bush have established themselves as strong plays given good matchups.  I could see any combination of the four- my guess is above- but I would not fault any combination of those players taking a place in the starting nine.

The most intriguing player that could take the field is Brandon Lloyd.  Lloyd has stepped up his play of late, capitalizing on his many targets and moving himself into starting consideration with Roddy White limping.  My gut says White at this stage but a switch would not be a surprising or controversial move in any sense.

Matchups
QB: Edge Malinn- Brees and Manning are an elite duo but, as I wrote last week, QB tends be slightly overrated when each team has good players.  Nemo should stand a decent chance to hold serve.

RB: Edge Nemo- A big one, too.  I like the duo despite last week’s six total points, or whatever it was.  Not too keen on Malinn’s pairing but his backs have all performed of late.

WR: Slight edge, Malinn- Just by a hair.  Andre Johnson has been tough to stop of late but Marshall is a top WR and Cruz is nearly as good.  Can Cobb or Wallace step up to keep the pace?

TE: Edge Malinn- Not nearly as confident as we all would have been a month ago.  Graham seems to be legitimately hurting.

Flex: Even- I like Nemo here- two WRs but Cobb/Wallace and Stevie Johnson are a good, consistent pair.  Malinn gets to go one and one- RB & WR- but there is the question of whether the right pick is made with so much choice available.

Key Questions
1. Will Flacco play?
No.

2. The right decisions
It is an interesting comparison- Nemo has a lineup that is essentially carved into marble while Malinn has to make some very important decisions.  Will the number one seed crumble under the pressure?

3. Too little variety?
One area that has concerned me with Malinn’s team construction is the dependence on offenses in Denver and New Orleans.  One bad day from one player could sink two- this is the type of risk that can balance out over a season but is vulnerable to a consistent team such as Nemo’s.

4. Trade regret?
Nemo traded a #1 draft choice to Malinn in a straight-up deal for Mike Wallace.  Will either side look back on that deal with double the regret?

5. The future
Nemo has a relatively bright future in my eyes.  Cobb, Martin, and Dalton are more than capable of forming the nucleus for another playoff team.  Malinn is a little less stocked- not much in the form of draft picks but Richardson is a star keeper while Freeman and Graham should continue to contribute.  For both teams, though, this should represent the best chance at a title in the next three years.

Projected Score- Yahoo
Malinn 117, Nemo 115

Wow.  Yahoo does not like BGE, giving him 6, while Bush and Greene score higher- either would add to the projection.  The key here is variability because Yahoo tends to give an average that might not be as appropriate to predict the final score.  In Nemo’s case, I expect him to score in the 105 to 115 range most weeks.  With Malinn, the range is wider- 95 to 130, maybe.

Overlap, as discussed above, is the primary factor, but his player type is more up and down given the lack of a franchise RB.  I am not a big fan of either guy’s matchups this week so without much further ado…

Commissioner’s Prediction:
Malinn 106, Nemo 102

Should be a nail-biter…

Viewing Guide

The Superbowl kicks off Saturday night as Ryan goes, potentially, against White.  There is no doubt that Malinn will want to try to absorb the impact by playing White but this is not really a concept I buy into.

Nemo gets going at 1pm on Sunday, with eleven total games.  Rice is the only holdover at 425pm.  Malinn takes the late stage, batting appropriately in the bottom of the inning, with five of his projected at 4pm or later.  Neither team has a viable Sunday night option, likely preventing this game from becoming a classic NFFL showdown, but the scramble from Malinn in the four o’clock slot should be entertaining.

T-minus forty-eight hours- good luck to both participants.

Tim

Thursday, December 13, 2012

2012 Playoff Preview



2012 NFFL Playoff Preview- Week 15

A wild conclusion to the season saw Malinn eliminate long-time rival Lee through a league topping point total despite a ferocious response from the league’s tallest member.  As a result, Lee joins his humbled commissioner as the second 9-5 team in league history to miss the playoffs.

The remaining quartet, however, are all deserving of their place.  Malinn takes home the league’s least desired trophy, the regular season crown, which grants him the top seed and the tie-breaker for week 15.  He selected Curran, who enjoyed a fine season despite a notable lack of respect from his competitors, as his wild-card opponent.

Tighe, winner of his division by a mere fourteen points- aka a ‘Brady Quinn season’- is left to face his own longtime nemesis, Nemo, in the other semi-final round.  The two met in week 14, where Tighe failed to top 100 points for the first time since the bye weeks, as Nemo won to secure his first playoff place in several seasons.

The winners move on to week 16’s Superbowl XI- the NFFL’s eleventh, for all your Roman numeral fans- where, as usual, a tie will call for a week 17 replay.  Let’s get on with it…

#1 Malinn (11-3) vs. Curran (9-5)

Form- last five
Malinn: W-W-W-L-L
Curran: W-L-L-L-W

Malinn rides a three-game tear into the playoffs as he responded well to a 97-77 reverse against the same Curran in week 9.  The loss saw him stripped of his undeserved #1 ranking- a designation that Curran dropped a week later in an electric 118-113 loss to Nemo.  Curran made a strong play to miss the playoffs with his three-game swoon but the point totals were healthy and an excellent job was done to patch up for the loss of Gronkowski.

Projected lineup and analysis
Curran: Brady-Wayne-Welker-Turner-Gore-Gresham-Crabtree-Garcon-Palmer
Malinn: Manning-Marshall-White-Richardson-BGE- Graham-Cruz-Moreno-Brees

On paper, Malinn has a formidable squad that is benefiting from pouring excess resources into 2012 at the expense of future years- the Mayan Gambit, let’s say.  But a look at the numbers hints that Curran could do the job with a couple of pieces falling the right way.

First, at QB, Malinn spent considerably to acquire two of the league’s top guys.  However, by the numbers, the edge on the year has been two points per game.  That is, Brees-Manning vs Brady-Palmer would have netted a gain of two points, per game, all year. It is a shocking number but that is the reality- once the playoffs are reached, the importance at QB is diminished given the high starting point for scoring at the position.  Matchups favor Malinn, slightly, but only Palmer is not ‘match-up proof’ so this should be less of a factor.  Playing KC, in fact, may be enough to allow Palmer to keep pace.

We thus turn elsewhere- at RB, Gore and Turner compare favorably to Malinn’s trio, albeit very slightly.   To me, the matchups are about equal and I have bashed both RB groups all year so I will not repeat myself.  To me, the biggest battleground is here, and it is simple- can anyone score?  The team that gets in the end zone via the RB position should win, I think.  Turner is a long-time end zone poacher and the Patriots seem to allow rush touchdowns so Curran might be able to match up despite a 2 v 3 disadvantage.

WR is where Malinn begins to stretch his top-seeded legs- the trio is the league’s best and Curran should hope to only keep up.  I’ll give Malinn a tiny edge on mathcups- indoor game for Cruz and White- but Curran has enough to go on here with Welker essentially matchup-proof and Wayne @ HOU a plus.  The key guys are Crabtree and Garcon- each talented, with opportunity, but lacking a consistent track record.  Ten points is MINIMUM from these two- or it should be over.

At tight end, the Gronkowski injury was massive and could prove to have the same impact on the title as some other notable losses in past NFFL seasons.  The Graham-Gronkowksi head-to-head would have been fun on the playoff stage but it is now Gresham to attempts to make it a ‘Big G’.  Jermaine is a half-decent player but ultimately is the munchkin to the donut, the limp-wrister to the knucklepuck, and the edge here is massively in favor of Malinn.

The key?  My pick for the crucial area is inter-dependence, a factor for both teams.  Curran has two Patriots and two Niners- a shootout on Route 1 favors his squad.  Malinn has similar, Cruz-White going head to head while the Saints and Broncos offenses are tied tightly to his belt.  It could prove his undoing if Baltimore, a historically strong unit, steps up on Manning, or Tampa, a rising group, stifles Brees.  An upset here is more likely given this factor.

Yahoo projection, point spread, and prediction
Malinn 122, Curran 91- Malinn favored by 31 points

Take the points!  Since week 7, Curran has topped 100 six out of seven times- his lone dip, the 97 against Malinn.  Yahoo’s projections, obviously, fail to take this consistency into account.  Curran has also outscored Malinn four times in the last seven weeks and has done so seven times in the last ten- with Gronk, of course.

Is 122 reasonable for Malinn?  His team exceeded that target last week but has otherwise not hit those heights since week 9.  I think the final score meets somewhere in the middle but ultimately sees Curran, the neutral’s choice, fall to an overpriced Malinn squad.

PBR prediction- Malinn 113, Curran 105


Nemo (10-4) @ Tighe (9-5)

Form- last five
Nemo: W-L-W-W-W
Tighe: L-W-W-W-W

I had thought, weeks ago, that one of these two would be out.  However, each responded impressively, running out a combined 8-2 record to close the year.  Nemo is 2-0 so far this year, a sad-sack 90-83 week 7 win topped by a much more assertive 125-94 scoreline to close the regular season.  His lack of depth- the one real flaw- is now irrelevant, giving him a big boost in my eyes.

But, despite the lesser record and head-to-head losses, Tighe is the higher seed by basis of his division championship. The squads were 1-2 in points, Tighe winning out by a mere eight, which does slightly justify the seeding.
                                                                                       
Projected lineup and analysis
Nemo: Ryan-Johnson & Johnson-Rice-Martin-Miller-Cobb-Wallace-Dalton
Tighe: Griffin-Thomas-Smith-Spiller-Forte-Gates-Jones-Foster-Stafford

The injury status of RGIII will be the story and, for now, I’ll give him the nod.  Let’s assume David Wilson steps in if he is ruled out.

Like Malinn, Tighe is glitz and glamour at QB, his trio notable for rushing yards, department store tomfoolery, and losing games by fistfuls.  Nemo is more workmanlike, his duo winning games, kind of, and not putting up big numbers.  On the year, the head-to-head gives Tighe a three point edge, but Ryan has been in decline of late- let’s call it five.  I like the matchups for Nemo, or, I should say, I dislike his less, but these are all capable players and should produce.

Running back is where it gets fun- both teams are strong here, stronger than the pair facing off in the other playoff game.  Rice and Martin, for Nemo, have been as strong a duo as any in the NFFL.  Each sits comfortably in the top-five and, with Peterson and Charles at home, the two are in the top three, so to speak, from the remaining.  Tighe counters with a top runner in Foster and an equally dangerous player in Spiller, who may look to finally reach his tantalizing potential after Fred Jackson’s injury.  Matt Forte has an excellent pedigree while David Wilson might be the month of December’s breakout star, a potential top three back for 2014 who could tap into his immense potential down the stretch.

Matchups for these six are more or less OK- Spiller has a tough assignment but as a pass catcher should be fine.  Same for Rice, against Denver.  It may come down to touchdowns but those are hard to predict- what may become the key factor here is the use of Rice under a new offensive coordinator.  Cam Cameron, perhaps in the name of preserving his star man, underused Rice at times and this coaching change could signal the start of more significant usage.  The edge goes to Tighe, but only by virtue of a 3 v 2 numbers edge.

Wide receiver is a much tougher area to call here.  Nemo has more of the traditional type- good volume, solid red zone options who might not blow up but can get ten to fifteen points with regularity.  Cobb has emerged as that type of player in the slot while the Johnson duo has done it for years.  Mike Wallace is the ‘Flex-Factor’ the late season pickup making a huge contribution last week after totaling a Kerry Meier level stat line in the prior games.  Tighe is more hit or miss and the player type has contributed to some minor inconsistency issues- Thomas, Smith, and Jones hit big plays but rarely come in for consecutive weeks of ten catch, one TD production.

Ultimately, Tighe might win out here.  Three solid matchups and a buffer action on Ryan via Julio Jones could prove the difference if the Packers or Bills have trouble scoring.  Nemo has the consistency, but with strong matchups I like Tighe’s odds of explosive scoring.

Tight end?  Meh.  Heath Miller and Gates are both out to pasture- Gates has some ability and could get going but his performance this year has been less than stellar.  Heath Miller lacks the name recognition but might be a better bet- his numbers are far better than Gates and he has played well with and without Big Ben.

As said above, I think the key is Tighe capitalizing on WR matchups.  His players lack the consistency I think wins playoff games but he has the desired matchups to succeed.  It may be any of the three but a 20-point showing from one should do the trick.  Nemo counters via Rice- will Baltimore re-committ to the run?  Rice has already been strong so any uptick will be a major boost.  Nemo will need touchdowns, no doubt about it, to overcome what I expect will be a yardage edge for Tighe.

Yahoo projection, point spread, and prediction
Tighe 120, Nemo 117- Tighe favored by 3 points

Perfect!  Tighe, favored by 3, at home, accurately reflected my feeling that these are even-matched teams.  Again, with RGIII’s status in flux, we can assume a reversal if Wilson steps in- Nemo by 3- which creates the (lame) argument that perhaps the line is a pick ‘em.

A week 9 explosion aside, Nemo has more or less fell in the 100 to 115 point range.  More of the same, I think, for him.  Tighe has, in my mind, been inconsistent but with his team otherwise healthy I like the odds for him to top 100 and move on to the Superbowl.

PBR prediction- Tighe 111, Nemo 107


Good luck, all, and many thanks for not forcing us to watch Jets-Titans on Monday…

Tim

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Rivalry Week- Playoff Picture

Hi all,

Your bed-ridden commissioner has staggered out into the kitchen to stuff his face and try to fix his iTunes (which is occasionally not updating the 'play count'- anyone have ideas???).  In the meantime, let's talk some playoffs.

By this point we should all know the matchups...standings:

Norwood Division
Malinn, 10-3
Nemo, 9-4
Concannon, 5-8
DFlam, 3-10
TMac, 2-11

Mustang Division
Tighe, 9-4
Lee, 9-4
Curran, 8-5
Brett, 6-7
Thompson, 4-9

The big news is that both Tighe and Malinn control their own destiny, so to speak, with regard to winning the division- the only way I could be wrong is if Tighe and Lee both win while Lee makes up ONE HUNDRED POINTS.  Good luck, Lee.

The race for the top seed is down to these two- Malinn, if he wins, will clinch.   Tighe, with a win and a Malinn loss, should gain the crown given his own large points lead over Malinn.

Curran, #2 in points, has found himself on the outside after a crushing loss to...Thompson?  The good news is that Curran needs someone above him to lose and with Malinn facing Lee and Nemo facing Tighe, the only way he could be totally locked out is with a Lee win or tie AND a Tighe-Nemo TIE.  That is it...otherwise, Curran can get to 9-5 with a win and climb past either Lee, if he loses, and/or the loser of Tighe-Nemo.

The trickiest part is that Curran is up nine on Nemo and down thirty to Tighe so getting level with the loser of that matchup does not guarantee anything.  The simplest path is through Lee, provided he falls to Malinn.

On the other end, both Brett and Thompson, heroically forging on, will not be permitted further spoiler status as they face down and out DFlam and Concannon, respectively.  The latter pair were 9-10 in points last week- nice work.

TMac- I did not forget you.

Good luck, all.

Tim

Friday, November 23, 2012

Wk 12 Power Rankings and Stretch Run Update


Week 12 Power Rankings
Happy Thanksgiving!

My, my, did Jaesung Lee draft that Jets’ team?   A fine day of football to mark the close of our league trade deadline served as the starting point to the league stretch run.  As we all know, there are five teams battling hard for four playoff spots while the rest remain in the hunt for draft pick positioning. 

Before I launch into a mini-preview, some general comments-

*League Cup is starting either week 13 or 14.  I plan on doing total points through week 15, then taking 1v4, 2v3 as semi-finals before the week 17 cup final.  $100 to the winner.  I have not checked out DFlam’s site from weeks ago but if that checks out we can use it- in any event, it will be a salary cap format.

*This has been my worst year so far as commissioner and I apologize for the difficulties that has caused.  I’ll go into more detail in January in terms of what went wrong and what I feel can be fixed.

*One area related to above- running the league has become a bit overwhelming.  I have chatted with a number of you in regard to taking over certain duties in the league.  If anyone has any area they want to contribute to next season, let me know and we can figure something out. All positions will pay about one (1) PBR per year, draft, give or take a couple of fluid ounces.

*I would like to take a swing at a kind of ‘Champions League’ competition next year.  I will include any league that has been together for about the same amount of time as ours- five members playing together for about five straight years being the minimum.  Since the rosters will be separate from the regular season, it does not matter if leagues are redraft, keeper, or dynasty.  Let me know if you guys know of other leagues that might want to contribute their top two to four teams each season for this new competition.   And- for the record, I’ll try to include everyone in our league for this in year one…details to come in January.

OK- onward…team by team first, then rankings…

Last Week
5. Nemo
4. Lee
3. Malinn
2. Tighe
1. CURRAN

Naturally, Curran lost.  And, with Gronk out, he probably will not return to such lofty heights anytime soon.   Let’s take a look at the squads now and see who I like to lead the way into the playoffs…

5. Curran- Curran has had an outstanding season and I think the Brady-Palmer duo is just going to be enough, combined with a soft schedule, to sneak into the playoffs.  However, the Gronk injury is devastating and I think it makes him the clear weak spot in the playoff pack.

The reason I say so is not just because of #87’s ability but because there is a lack of support at other positions to make up the difference.  The loss at RB and WR compared to the others is significant and it truly comes down to Brady’s arm now.  Fingers are crossed for Amen Father Coffee but I think the Gronk blow is too much to overcome.

4. Lee- Lee’s team is kind of the opposite of Malinn- see below- because I think he has a good shot of winning it all IF he makes the playoffs.  The Rodgers-Eli tandem is good for about Rodgers plus five points these days and that level of inconsistency is going to be tough to overcome in late season showdowns.  However, strength at RB and WR is, at worst, level with the best teams in the league and I think that is going to make him a playoff favorite.

The key guy is, as always, Ridley, and whether Lee wants to risk him posting up a two point week in exchange for big upside.  Maintaining Bryant’s recent surge as well as getting Nicks back could provide vital late season points, as well.  A soft schedule leads into a Malinn matchup in week 14- look for Lee to be jockeying for positioning by then.

3. Tighe- A hot start and recent surge sandwich a difficult mid-season, where dropping four of six has left Sammy Knight stranded just outside the wild-card.  Head to head with Curran this week and a last-chance try against Nemo will give Tighe a chance to fight his way into the playoffs but being on the outside is always an uncomfortable position.

Unlike others, Tighe’s best team is up for debate.  Is it a healthy Vick or lackluster Stafford at QB2?  Is Spiller reliable enough with his touches to bench Forte?  Can Harvin or Jones play when sub-100%?  Some of these inconsistencies contributed to those bye week problems.  However, the team is strong from top to bottom and having to decide between many good options should work out fine in the end.  If Tighe makes the playoffs, I like his team’s odds.

2. Malinn- ‘Outhouse to penthouse’ as Malinn put it, moving various pieces around to acquire Brees and Pizza Manning.  The moves, on average, add about eight points to his team per week.  The trio of White, Marshall, and Cruz give Malinn arguably the top trio of WRs among contenders while Graham is the top TE, by far.  These edges will be desperately needed as the McGahee injury puts Malinn in a big hole at RB- Richardson, who has had some minor injuries, and Greene, just outside the top-20. 

Malinn is going to put one of my favorite theories to the test- QBs get you into the playoffs, RBs win in the playoffs.  Based on that arbitrary line alone, Malinn is projecting to a round 1 exit.  The potential key guys are Greene (soft schedule), Bush (needs more work), and Green-Ellis but I think ultimately not going after a bigger name at RB will cost this team a championship.

1. Nemo- After swapping out a first round pick for Mike Wallace, Nemo had taken on the look of a true contender.  It was momentary, however, as Roethlisberger’s injury likely renders Wallace as more of a hit-or-miss type in the coming weeks.  However, the track record has been outstanding thus far, a big winning streak moving him from question mark to true contender, and he should be able to overcome the blow.

Nemo’s team is developing question marks at QB as Matt Ryan’s recent showing against Arizona continued a slow slide from the top 5.  Rice is also looking more and more like a lower-end RB1 as opposed to the top-three player he was drafted as.  This loss is being balanced out by some strong play at WR from Johnson and Johnson.  To me, it is looking more and more like Nemo’s young guns- Martin, Cobb, and Dalton- will need to maintain their surprisingly high levels of play to keep him at #1 and move him forward into the Superbowl.

Big Matchups
Week 12- Curran v Tighe
Week 13- Malinn v Nemo
Week 14- Tighe v Nemo, Malinn v Lee

From above, we see that everyone gets one more tough game but Lee and Curran get an extra soft matchup.  Assuming everyone wins their softies-

Norwood Division
Nemo, 9-3
Malinn, 9-3

Mustang Division
Curran, 10-3
Lee, 10-3
Tighe, 8-4

Wild Card
Lee, - Game behind
Malinn, 0.5 games behind
Tighe, 1.5 games behind

What becomes clear is that Tighe must win this week against Curran or he will need Nemo or Malinn to lose twice in order to remain in the chase.  If Tighe wins, Lee will likely need a week 14 win to take the division while the loser of Malinn-Nemo next week will sweat it out for a wild card spot in week 14.  As usual, points is first tie-breaker before head-to-head is used.

And that is that- might take a break next week before a playoff picture breakdown prior to Rivalry Week.  Good luck, to all.

Tim