2012 Playoff Preview

2012 NFFL Playoff Preview- Week 15

A wild conclusion to the season saw Malinn eliminate long-time rival Lee through a league topping point total despite a ferocious response from the league’s tallest member.  As a result, Lee joins his humbled commissioner as the second 9-5 team in league history to miss the playoffs.

The remaining quartet, however, are all deserving of their place.  Malinn takes home the league’s least desired trophy, the regular season crown, which grants him the top seed and the tie-breaker for week 15.  He selected Curran, who enjoyed a fine season despite a notable lack of respect from his competitors, as his wild-card opponent.

Tighe, winner of his division by a mere fourteen points- aka a ‘Brady Quinn season’- is left to face his own longtime nemesis, Nemo, in the other semi-final round.  The two met in week 14, where Tighe failed to top 100 points for the first time since the bye weeks, as Nemo won to secure his first playoff place in several seasons.

The winners move on to week 16’s Superbowl XI- the NFFL’s eleventh, for all your Roman numeral fans- where, as usual, a tie will call for a week 17 replay.  Let’s get on with it…

#1 Malinn (11-3) vs. Curran (9-5)

Form- last five

Malinn: W-W-W-L-L

Curran: W-L-L-L-W

Malinn rides a three-game tear into the playoffs as he responded well to a 97-77 reverse against the same Curran in week 9.  The loss saw him stripped of his undeserved #1 ranking- a designation that Curran dropped a week later in an electric 118-113 loss to Nemo.  Curran made a strong play to miss the playoffs with his three-game swoon but the point totals were healthy and an excellent job was done to patch up for the loss of Gronkowski.

Projected lineup and analysis

Curran: Brady-Wayne-Welker-Turner-Gore-Gresham-Crabtree-Garcon-Palmer

Malinn: Manning-Marshall-White-Richardson-BGE- Graham-Cruz-Moreno-Brees

On paper, Malinn has a formidable squad that is benefiting from pouring excess resources into 2012 at the expense of future years- the Mayan Gambit, let’s say.  But a look at the numbers hints that Curran could do the job with a couple of pieces falling the right way.

First, at QB, Malinn spent considerably to acquire two of the league’s top guys.  However, by the numbers, the edge on the year has been two points per game.  That is, Brees-Manning vs Brady-Palmer would have netted a gain of two points, per game, all year. It is a shocking number but that is the reality- once the playoffs are reached, the importance at QB is diminished given the high starting point for scoring at the position.  Matchups favor Malinn, slightly, but only Palmer is not ‘match-up proof’ so this should be less of a factor.  Playing KC, in fact, may be enough to allow Palmer to keep pace.

We thus turn elsewhere- at RB, Gore and Turner compare favorably to Malinn’s trio, albeit very slightly.   To me, the matchups are about equal and I have bashed both RB groups all year so I will not repeat myself.  To me, the biggest battleground is here, and it is simple- can anyone score?  The team that gets in the end zone via the RB position should win, I think.  Turner is a long-time end zone poacher and the Patriots seem to allow rush touchdowns so Curran might be able to match up despite a 2 v 3 disadvantage.

WR is where Malinn begins to stretch his top-seeded legs- the trio is the league’s best and Curran should hope to only keep up.  I’ll give Malinn a tiny edge on mathcups- indoor game for Cruz and White- but Curran has enough to go on here with Welker essentially matchup-proof and Wayne @ HOU a plus.  The key guys are Crabtree and Garcon- each talented, with opportunity, but lacking a consistent track record.  Ten points is MINIMUM from these two- or it should be over.

At tight end, the Gronkowski injury was massive and could prove to have the same impact on the title as some other notable losses in past NFFL seasons.  The Graham-Gronkowksi head-to-head would have been fun on the playoff stage but it is now Gresham to attempts to make it a ‘Big G’.  Jermaine is a half-decent player but ultimately is the munchkin to the donut, the limp-wrister to the knucklepuck, and the edge here is massively in favor of Malinn.

The key?  My pick for the crucial area is inter-dependence, a factor for both teams.  Curran has two Patriots and two Niners- a shootout on Route 1 favors his squad.  Malinn has similar, Cruz-White going head to head while the Saints and Broncos offenses are tied tightly to his belt.  It could prove his undoing if Baltimore, a historically strong unit, steps up on Manning, or Tampa, a rising group, stifles Brees.  An upset here is more likely given this factor.

Yahoo projection, point spread, and prediction

Malinn 122, Curran 91- Malinn favored by 31 points

Take the points!  Since week 7, Curran has topped 100 six out of seven times- his lone dip, the 97 against Malinn.  Yahoo’s projections, obviously, fail to take this consistency into account.  Curran has also outscored Malinn four times in the last seven weeks and has done so seven times in the last ten- with Gronk, of course.

Is 122 reasonable for Malinn?  His team exceeded that target last week but has otherwise not hit those heights since week 9.  I think the final score meets somewhere in the middle but ultimately sees Curran, the neutral’s choice, fall to an overpriced Malinn squad.

PBR prediction- Malinn 113, Curran 105

Nemo (10-4) @ Tighe (9-5)

Form- last five

Nemo: W-L-W-W-W

Tighe: L-W-W-W-W

I had thought, weeks ago, that one of these two would be out.  However, each responded impressively, running out a combined 8-2 record to close the year.  Nemo is 2-0 so far this year, a sad-sack 90-83 week 7 win topped by a much more assertive 125-94 scoreline to close the regular season.  His lack of depth- the one real flaw- is now irrelevant, giving him a big boost in my eyes.

But, despite the lesser record and head-to-head losses, Tighe is the higher seed by basis of his division championship. The squads were 1-2 in points, Tighe winning out by a mere eight, which does slightly justify the seeding.

                                                                                       

Projected lineup and analysis

Nemo: Ryan-Johnson & Johnson-Rice-Martin-Miller-Cobb-Wallace-Dalton

Tighe: Griffin-Thomas-Smith-Spiller-Forte-Gates-Jones-Foster-Stafford

The injury status of RGIII will be the story and, for now, I’ll give him the nod.  Let’s assume David Wilson steps in if he is ruled out.

Like Malinn, Tighe is glitz and glamour at QB, his trio notable for rushing yards, department store tomfoolery, and losing games by fistfuls.  Nemo is more workmanlike, his duo winning games, kind of, and not putting up big numbers.  On the year, the head-to-head gives Tighe a three point edge, but Ryan has been in decline of late- let’s call it five.  I like the matchups for Nemo, or, I should say, I dislike his less, but these are all capable players and should produce.

Running back is where it gets fun- both teams are strong here, stronger than the pair facing off in the other playoff game.  Rice and Martin, for Nemo, have been as strong a duo as any in the NFFL.  Each sits comfortably in the top-five and, with Peterson and Charles at home, the two are in the top three, so to speak, from the remaining.  Tighe counters with a top runner in Foster and an equally dangerous player in Spiller, who may look to finally reach his tantalizing potential after Fred Jackson’s injury.  Matt Forte has an excellent pedigree while David Wilson might be the month of December’s breakout star, a potential top three back for 2014 who could tap into his immense potential down the stretch.

Matchups for these six are more or less OK- Spiller has a tough assignment but as a pass catcher should be fine.  Same for Rice, against Denver.  It may come down to touchdowns but those are hard to predict- what may become the key factor here is the use of Rice under a new offensive coordinator.  Cam Cameron, perhaps in the name of preserving his star man, underused Rice at times and this coaching change could signal the start of more significant usage.  The edge goes to Tighe, but only by virtue of a 3 v 2 numbers edge.

Wide receiver is a much tougher area to call here.  Nemo has more of the traditional type- good volume, solid red zone options who might not blow up but can get ten to fifteen points with regularity.  Cobb has emerged as that type of player in the slot while the Johnson duo has done it for years.  Mike Wallace is the ‘Flex-Factor’ the late season pickup making a huge contribution last week after totaling a Kerry Meier level stat line in the prior games.  Tighe is more hit or miss and the player type has contributed to some minor inconsistency issues- Thomas, Smith, and Jones hit big plays but rarely come in for consecutive weeks of ten catch, one TD production.

Ultimately, Tighe might win out here.  Three solid matchups and a buffer action on Ryan via Julio Jones could prove the difference if the Packers or Bills have trouble scoring.  Nemo has the consistency, but with strong matchups I like Tighe’s odds of explosive scoring.

Tight end?  Meh.  Heath Miller and Gates are both out to pasture- Gates has some ability and could get going but his performance this year has been less than stellar.  Heath Miller lacks the name recognition but might be a better bet- his numbers are far better than Gates and he has played well with and without Big Ben.

As said above, I think the key is Tighe capitalizing on WR matchups.  His players lack the consistency I think wins playoff games but he has the desired matchups to succeed.  It may be any of the three but a 20-point showing from one should do the trick.  Nemo counters via Rice- will Baltimore re-committ to the run?  Rice has already been strong so any uptick will be a major boost.  Nemo will need touchdowns, no doubt about it, to overcome what I expect will be a yardage edge for Tighe.

Yahoo projection, point spread, and prediction

Tighe 120, Nemo 117- Tighe favored by 3 points

Perfect!  Tighe, favored by 3, at home, accurately reflected my feeling that these are even-matched teams.  Again, with RGIII’s status in flux, we can assume a reversal if Wilson steps in- Nemo by 3- which creates the (lame) argument that perhaps the line is a pick ‘em.

A week 9 explosion aside, Nemo has more or less fell in the 100 to 115 point range.  More of the same, I think, for him.  Tighe has, in my mind, been inconsistent but with his team otherwise healthy I like the odds for him to top 100 and move on to the Superbowl.

PBR prediction- Tighe 111, Nemo 107

Good luck, all, and many thanks for not forcing us to watch Jets-Titans on Monday…

Tim