#1 Malinn (12-3) v Nemo (11-4)
Both Nemo and Malinn advanced last week in a pair of very
tight games to reach this stage- Nemo beating rival Tighe while Malinn held on
against a late, late surge from Curran.
Each has found himself lacking in recent championships- Nemo winning one
in the six-team era, Malinn yet to find himself a week 16 winner- so the
matchup will be sure to bring a deserving league member to a long cherished
prize. On to the preview…
Lineup Projection
Malinn:
Manning-Marshall-White-Richardson-BGE-Graham-Cruz-Moreno
Nemo:
Ryan-Johnson-Johnson-Rice-Martin-Miller-Cobb-Wallace-Dalton
Nemo’s lineup has written itself of late- after the trade
for Wallace, James Jones has returned to the bench while RBs Woodhead and
Jones-Drew are unlikely to feature.
Not much new from last week- this is a solid group with a very high
likelihood of settling in at 105-115 points.
Malinn has a more variable situation. Manning and Brees are locks, as is
Graham despite his struggles with injury.
Cruz should line up opposite Marshall as a strong 1-2 WR punch while
rookie Richardson is the RB1.
Questions start quickly, though, due to a combination of shaky play and
a strong bench.
At RB, BGE and Moreno represent the hot hands while Greene
and Bush have established themselves as strong plays given good matchups. I could see any combination of the
four- my guess is above- but I would not fault any combination of those players
taking a place in the starting nine.
The most intriguing player that could take the field is
Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd has stepped
up his play of late, capitalizing on his many targets and moving himself into
starting consideration with Roddy White limping. My gut says White at this stage but a switch would not be a
surprising or controversial move in any sense.
Matchups
QB: Edge Malinn- Brees and Manning are an elite duo but, as
I wrote last week, QB tends be slightly overrated when each team has good
players. Nemo should stand a
decent chance to hold serve.
RB: Edge Nemo- A big one, too. I like the duo despite last week’s six total points, or
whatever it was. Not too keen on
Malinn’s pairing but his backs have all performed of late.
WR: Slight edge, Malinn- Just by a hair. Andre Johnson has been tough to stop of
late but Marshall is a top WR and Cruz is nearly as good. Can Cobb or Wallace step up to keep the
pace?
TE: Edge Malinn- Not nearly as confident as we all would
have been a month ago. Graham
seems to be legitimately hurting.
Flex: Even- I like Nemo here- two WRs but Cobb/Wallace and
Stevie Johnson are a good, consistent pair. Malinn gets to go one and one- RB & WR- but there is the
question of whether the right pick is made with so much choice available.
Key Questions
1. Will Flacco play?
No.
2. The right decisions
It is an interesting comparison- Nemo has a lineup that is
essentially carved into marble while Malinn has to make some very important
decisions. Will the number one
seed crumble under the pressure?
3. Too little variety?
One area that has concerned me with Malinn’s team
construction is the dependence on offenses in Denver and New Orleans. One bad day from one player could sink
two- this is the type of risk that can balance out over a season but is
vulnerable to a consistent team such as Nemo’s.
4. Trade regret?
Nemo traded a #1 draft choice to Malinn in a straight-up
deal for Mike Wallace. Will either
side look back on that deal with double the regret?
5. The future
Nemo has a relatively bright future in my eyes. Cobb, Martin, and Dalton are more than
capable of forming the nucleus for another playoff team. Malinn is a little less stocked- not
much in the form of draft picks but Richardson is a star keeper while Freeman
and Graham should continue to contribute.
For both teams, though, this should represent the best chance at a title
in the next three years.
Projected Score- Yahoo
Malinn 117, Nemo 115
Wow. Yahoo does
not like BGE, giving him 6, while Bush and Greene score higher- either would
add to the projection. The key
here is variability because Yahoo tends to give an average that might not be as
appropriate to predict the final score.
In Nemo’s case, I expect him to score in the 105 to 115 range most
weeks. With Malinn, the range is
wider- 95 to 130, maybe.
Overlap, as discussed above, is the primary factor, but his
player type is more up and down given the lack of a franchise RB. I am not a big fan of either guy’s
matchups this week so without much further ado…
Commissioner’s Prediction:
Malinn 106, Nemo 102
Should be a nail-biter…
Viewing Guide
The Superbowl kicks off Saturday night as Ryan goes,
potentially, against White. There
is no doubt that Malinn will want to try to absorb the impact by playing White
but this is not really a concept I buy into.
Nemo gets going at 1pm on Sunday, with eleven total
games. Rice is the only holdover
at 425pm. Malinn takes the late
stage, batting appropriately in the bottom of the inning, with five of his
projected at 4pm or later. Neither
team has a viable Sunday night option, likely preventing this game from
becoming a classic NFFL showdown, but the scramble from Malinn in the four
o’clock slot should be entertaining.
T-minus forty-eight hours- good luck to both participants.
Tim
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