Wk 12 Power Rankings and Stretch Run Update

Week 12 Power Rankings

Happy Thanksgiving!

My, my, did Jaesung Lee draft that Jets’ team?   A fine day of football to mark the close of our league trade deadline served as the starting point to the league stretch run.  As we all know, there are five teams battling hard for four playoff spots while the rest remain in the hunt for draft pick positioning. 

Before I launch into a mini-preview, some general comments-

*League Cup is starting either week 13 or 14.  I plan on doing total points through week 15, then taking 1v4, 2v3 as semi-finals before the week 17 cup final.  $100 to the winner.  I have not checked out DFlam’s site from weeks ago but if that checks out we can use it- in any event, it will be a salary cap format.

*This has been my worst year so far as commissioner and I apologize for the difficulties that has caused.  I’ll go into more detail in January in terms of what went wrong and what I feel can be fixed.

*One area related to above- running the league has become a bit overwhelming.  I have chatted with a number of you in regard to taking over certain duties in the league.  If anyone has any area they want to contribute to next season, let me know and we can figure something out. All positions will pay about one (1) PBR per year, draft, give or take a couple of fluid ounces.

*I would like to take a swing at a kind of ‘Champions League’ competition next year.  I will include any league that has been together for about the same amount of time as ours- five members playing together for about five straight years being the minimum.  Since the rosters will be separate from the regular season, it does not matter if leagues are redraft, keeper, or dynasty.  Let me know if you guys know of other leagues that might want to contribute their top two to four teams each season for this new competition.   And- for the record, I’ll try to include everyone in our league for this in year one…details to come in January.

OK- onward…team by team first, then rankings…

Last Week

5. Nemo
4. Lee
3. Malinn
2. Tighe
1. CURRAN

Naturally, Curran lost.  And, with Gronk out, he probably will not return to such lofty heights anytime soon.   Let’s take a look at the squads now and see who I like to lead the way into the playoffs…

5. Curran- Curran has had an outstanding season and I think the Brady-Palmer duo is just going to be enough, combined with a soft schedule, to sneak into the playoffs.  However, the Gronk injury is devastating and I think it makes him the clear weak spot in the playoff pack.

The reason I say so is not just because of #87’s ability but because there is a lack of support at other positions to make up the difference.  The loss at RB and WR compared to the others is significant and it truly comes down to Brady’s arm now.  Fingers are crossed for Amen Father Coffee but I think the Gronk blow is too much to overcome.

4. Lee- Lee’s team is kind of the opposite of Malinn- see below- because I think he has a good shot of winning it all IF he makes the playoffs.  The Rodgers-Eli tandem is good for about Rodgers plus five points these days and that level of inconsistency is going to be tough to overcome in late season showdowns.  However, strength at RB and WR is, at worst, level with the best teams in the league and I think that is going to make him a playoff favorite.

The key guy is, as always, Ridley, and whether Lee wants to risk him posting up a two point week in exchange for big upside.  Maintaining Bryant’s recent surge as well as getting Nicks back could provide vital late season points, as well.  A soft schedule leads into a Malinn matchup in week 14- look for Lee to be jockeying for positioning by then.

3. Tighe- A hot start and recent surge sandwich a difficult mid-season, where dropping four of six has left Sammy Knight stranded just outside the wild-card.  Head to head with Curran this week and a last-chance try against Nemo will give Tighe a chance to fight his way into the playoffs but being on the outside is always an uncomfortable position.

Unlike others, Tighe’s best team is up for debate.  Is it a healthy Vick or lackluster Stafford at QB2?  Is Spiller reliable enough with his touches to bench Forte?  Can Harvin or Jones play when sub-100%?  Some of these inconsistencies contributed to those bye week problems.  However, the team is strong from top to bottom and having to decide between many good options should work out fine in the end.  If Tighe makes the playoffs, I like his team’s odds.

2. Malinn- ‘Outhouse to penthouse’ as Malinn put it, moving various pieces around to acquire Brees and Pizza Manning.  The moves, on average, add about eight points to his team per week.  The trio of White, Marshall, and Cruz give Malinn arguably the top trio of WRs among contenders while Graham is the top TE, by far.  These edges will be desperately needed as the McGahee injury puts Malinn in a big hole at RB- Richardson, who has had some minor injuries, and Greene, just outside the top-20. 

Malinn is going to put one of my favorite theories to the test- QBs get you into the playoffs, RBs win in the playoffs.  Based on that arbitrary line alone, Malinn is projecting to a round 1 exit.  The potential key guys are Greene (soft schedule), Bush (needs more work), and Green-Ellis but I think ultimately not going after a bigger name at RB will cost this team a championship.

1. Nemo- After swapping out a first round pick for Mike Wallace, Nemo had taken on the look of a true contender.  It was momentary, however, as Roethlisberger’s injury likely renders Wallace as more of a hit-or-miss type in the coming weeks.  However, the track record has been outstanding thus far, a big winning streak moving him from question mark to true contender, and he should be able to overcome the blow.

Nemo’s team is developing question marks at QB as Matt Ryan’s recent showing against Arizona continued a slow slide from the top 5.  Rice is also looking more and more like a lower-end RB1 as opposed to the top-three player he was drafted as.  This loss is being balanced out by some strong play at WR from Johnson and Johnson.  To me, it is looking more and more like Nemo’s young guns- Martin, Cobb, and Dalton- will need to maintain their surprisingly high levels of play to keep him at #1 and move him forward into the Superbowl.

Big Matchups

Week 12- Curran v Tighe

Week 13- Malinn v Nemo

Week 14- Tighe v Nemo, Malinn v Lee

From above, we see that everyone gets one more tough game but Lee and Curran get an extra soft matchup.  Assuming everyone wins their softies-

Norwood Division
Nemo, 9-3

Malinn, 9-3

Mustang Division
Curran, 10-3

Lee, 10-3
Tighe, 8-4

Wild Card

Lee, - Game behind

Malinn, 0.5 games behind

Tighe, 1.5 games behind

What becomes clear is that Tighe must win this week against Curran or he will need Nemo or Malinn to lose twice in order to remain in the chase.  If Tighe wins, Lee will likely need a week 14 win to take the division while the loser of Malinn-Nemo next week will sweat it out for a wild card spot in week 14.  As usual, points is first tie-breaker before head-to-head is used.

And that is that- might take a break next week before a playoff picture breakdown prior to Rivalry Week.  Good luck, to all.

Tim