Merry Christmas

Ho ho ho,

Apologies for the total flop that the 'three-part preview' turned out to be.  In hindsight, would have just been better off not raising expectations.  Lesson learned.

Here is where we stand going into the last two games- no MNF update tomorrow.

League Cup Semifinals
TMac 68, Curran 49- Nothing like a rivalry match in the money weeks and both Curran and TMac played strongly here.  Ultimately, TMac got three solid matchups to go against Curran's Patriots laden one matchup and was able to overcome what I believe is the first cup lineup to include a tight end. 

Tighe 41, DFlam 17 (Grant)- It comes down to tonight for Flam as he gets the double benefit of both rooting for Grant and rooting against Rodgers.  Spiller was a huge star for Tighe who will surely be the underdog against TMac if he is able to advance.

NFFL Superbowl X
Lee 78, DFlam 74

Remaining Players
Sunday: Lee- Rodgers, DFlam- none
Monday: Lee- none, DFlam- White, Colston, Thomas

DFlam is all-in on the Saints tomorrow, hoping for another romp that causes the Falcons to take to the air early and often in a comeback attempt.  Lee is surely dreading another Rodgers stinker.  With Rodgers a likely bet to send Lee north of the 100 mark, it seems that Flam will need about ten points each- thirty total- to be in the mix.

Unless Rodgers falls on his face- this is going to be a very difficult night for both Lee and Flam.  Good luck to you both.

Tim

NFFL Playoffs and League Cup Draw

NFFL Semifinal Round

Week 15
DFlam @ #1 Concannon
Lee @ Curran

NFFL League Cup Quarterfinals
Cup Holder: Tighe
Last year's runner up: Lee

Tighe v Thompson
Lee v Curran
TMac v Brett v Nemo
Concannon v Malinn v DFlam

Obviously, the top team in each match-up or trio advances to the semi-finals.  Draw to be conducted early next Tuesday.

Commissioner

Appendix- how the draw was done

I asked Tighe, Lee, and Malinn to all order the numbers one through eight.  Tighe, as holder, determined whether Lee handled the order of the teams and the matching of those teams.  I used the total points standings for the 'base' order:

Concannon
Curran
DFlam
Malinn
TMac
Brett
Thompson
Nemo

Tighe led off with an odd number, which I had assigned to 'order' (O to O, so to speak).  Lee's numbers were 6, 2, 4, 5, 3, 1, 7, 8.  So I assigned myself 6, Curran 2, and so on, down to Nemo (8). This determined the new order of teams as they would be pulled out of the 'hat' (which Malinn's numbers would represent).

Brett
Curran
TMac
DFlam
Malinn
Concannon
Thompson
Nemo

Malinn's numbers returned 7, 2, 3, 1, 8, 6, 4, 5.  Tighe, as holder, went against the first team out of the hat, so to speak, so he got 7, Thompson.  Lee got #2 out of the hat, Curran.  The next three of TMac, Brett, and Nemo went into the first of the menage-a-cups and the final three in the hat remained to face each other.

Next year I'll just use a hat.

-Tim

Playoff Picture Update- Final Week, plus news

Hi,

Please see Yahoo for the updated standings.

Week 14 is upon us which means a final flurry of rivalry week games before we begin the playoffs.  At this stage, the playoffs are set: Concannon is in as a division winner while Curran, DFlam, and Lee will all enter with one winning the division.  Given his points lead, Concannon will win the regular season championship if he defeats Thompson.  A loss or tie by Concannon opens the door for the winner of the other division- here are the scenarios:

-Curran wins with a win over TMac as he should maintain his points lead over DFlam
-DFlam wins if he defeats Brett and Curran loses or ties
-A loss by both teams would allow Lee a chance if he defeats Malinn as he holds a significant edge on points.  However, he would need to also overtake Concannon in this scenario.

The four teams will meet in week 15 for the semi-finals.  The top seed will select his opponent from the two wild-cards by Wednesday at noon and the remaining two teams will meet in the other game.  Ties are broken by seed so in the event of a tie the division winner will advance to the Superbowl.  A tie in the Superbowl will be broken by a replay in week 17 (full lineups).

The League Cup will begin in week 15.  Last year's two finalists will each receive the benefit of playing one opponent in the head-to-head quarterfinals.  Two teams will be drawn randomly to face those teams.  The remaining six teams will be divided into two groups of three with the high scorer in each menage-a-cup advancing to the semi-finals.  The semi-finals will be two head-to-head matchups.  As usual, three players per team up until the full roster Cup Final in week 17 with no overlaps allowed for those in the NFFL Playoffs.  Ties in the cup will be broken in order of the highest scorer for each team- if still tied, the bench is used (with, again, no overlaps).

The draw for the cup quarterfinals will take place later this week- perhaps Friday.  The semi-final draw will take place the Tuesday following the quarterfinal.

Prize money, as usual: $100 for the regular season champion, $100 for the League Cup, $200 for the Superbowl.  Superbowl participants can negotiate a split if they so choose prior to the game.

Any questions should be directed to the facebook thread.

Thanks,

Tim

MNF Week 13

No MNF Game of the Week as all has been settled- not even fantasy implications for tonight's Dullsville Bowl!  A quick rundown of what transpired in week 13...

The top contenders all ran up big scores as they prepared for the playoffs.  Lee looked very much a #1 in a massive win over Brett while Curran took care of Nemo with ease behind Gronkowski's three touchdowns.  In what was a tight contest almost all day, Concannon finally pulled ahead of TMac and clinched a division title, ensuring a playoff return after a two season absence.  Malinn kept his calculator happy with what looks all but sure to be a win over Tighe but with Lee's victory he is now mathematically removed from the playoff chase.  The scores:

Lee 125 (Rivers), Brett 51
Malinn 102 (MJD), Tighe 66 (V-Jackson)
Concannon 112 (Mathews), TMac 101
Curran 113, Nemo 78
DFlam 110, Thompson 99

The big news of the day was for DFlam.  First, he fought off Thompson in what was a valiant performance from the much-maligned defending champion that hints at potential difficulty for the commissioner's quest to secure the top seed.  More relevantly, the injury to Matt Forte could prove a decisive blow for what is a fairly thin running back pool for the Teen Idles.  Early news indicates a two to four week layoff, or precisely the length that remains in the NFFL season.

Publication Preview
Tuesday: Playoff Picture Update
Wednesday: 2012 Keeper Alert- I like where this one is heading, keep an eye out
Friday: Rivalry Week Preview

Power Rankings- Pre-Week 13

It has been a little while as my early momentum on Power Rankings fizzled out around a month ago.  In terms of 2012, the plan will probably be to start with a full ranking, update the top 3 each week, and perhaps go full once a month from that point.

As usual, these rankings are in the idea of 'if we could pick a team today, what order would they go' but at this stage records play a big role in that.  Next week, I have a similar feature planned except with 2012 keeper potential factored in- something to look forward to for those out of the race.  Without further explanation, ado, or Freddy Adu, then...

10. Thompson
With four wins, Thompson is at the top of the bottom four but as noted last week his performance of late has been historically poor.  Looking at the next two weeks, his QB tandem of Ryan and Palko is as bad as any in this region and he lacks a consistent threat at RB.  At WR, Stevie Johnson, provided he avoids continuing to shoot himself in the foot, looked strong last week and could lead a resurgence.

The other caveat is that this squad has dealt with quite a bit of injury and some of these players are now returning.  Moss is back, for one, and DMF could return in time for rivalry week.  If these two can perform we could see another win from this team before the curtain falls on the 2011 season.

9. Nemo
Overall, there is not much to worry about here for contenders to trip up on but the QB duo of the Big Red Ben is solid enough to give Nemo a chance in any week.  Chris Johnson has shown some spark of late and could add further to his chances.  There is a hole at RB2 and the WRs, in general, lack big-time ability but Nemo has a shot to catch Curran napping in Week 13.

8. Tighe
Tighe has very little to speak of at RB but looks to have enough solid play coming in across the rest of the board to give him a steady hold of the eight spot.  With Vick out, Young has played solidly but injuries to Felix Jones, Julio Jones, and Manningham have all been more difficult to overcome of late.  One side note is that with Malinn all but mathematically out, Tighe is all but mathematically unlikely to impact the playoff race.

7. Brett
Brett hung around for a while before opting to give away AP and call it a season but at this moment his hold on the seven spot is very solid, both from above and below.  Bush and Murray at RB is as strong a duo this side of Malinn and that gives him a good chance to impact the standings late this year.  With two games against contenders- Lee this week, DFlam next- the key guys are likely the QBs.  Fitzpatrick and Bradford really just could not maintain the pace but good showings in the next two weeks might lead to an upset or two.   The other question is at WR- Knox and Wayne represent two solid rolls of the dice and perhaps Riley Cooper could play a big role in rivalry week.

6. Malinn
Malinn could still get into the playoffs but this view is shared only by the most socially-challenged mathematicians.  With Tighe a dead rubber opponent in week 13, we look ahead to week 14 and his showdown with Lee:

QB: Romo against the Giants could go either way but Colt McCoy is in trouble at PIT
RB: Rice hosts Indy- nice- while MJD welcomes Tampa Bay.  Now we are talking...
WR: Marshall (PHI) Wallace (CLE) and Lloyd (@SEA, MNF) could all provide positive games
TE: The two-TE set, Graham and Gates, are nearly matchup proof

With solid potential for an upset, Malinn will surely be preparing his Knute Rockne speech for his squad ahead of the rivalry week showdown.

5. TMac
As detailed in the playoff picture update, TMac is almost out of the division race as he needs to clear Concannon in the standings but currently trails by a full win.  The other issue is at WR, where he has held the most depth all year, is now a position where things are quickly crumbling.  De$ean Jack$on, a regular starter, has not contributed in weeks, and a look to the bench reveals Breaston and Simpson as the two vying for the top backup spot.

QB is an average spot with Freeman in freefall but Stafford looking to now get the thumbs-up on the injury front.  Davis, at TE, is also about average.  RB holds plenty of big names but only Foster is reliable.  Mendenhall is likely the quietest bust of the 2011 season and Turner is beginning to limp around- who knows if he can make it.  DeAngelo Williams has feasted on weak defenses of late- could he be a late savior for TMac?

Overall, TMac's squad has fought valiantly but the signs of a collapse are here and a tough schedule looms.  It seems, at this point, that he will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.

4. DFlam
DFlam checks in at a very strong #4 with a dynamic two-RB set at QB.  Both Tebow and Newton continue to produce despite poor throwing performances of late and there is no reason to expect that to change in December. 

DFlam does not have any major concerns but his top RB and WR are slight question marks- Forte lost Flacco, White has been inconsistent- and Jackson/Colston do not really seem likely to make up for it by being elite #2 guys.  There is solid depth with Flacco and McGahee.

This team is simply very well-rounded and has made it this far by being uber-consistent.  It should really be in line to score 95-105 point per week, a range it has fallen into more or less each week this year.  A bad week against DFlam will be punished but, on the flip side, a strong showing should be rewarded.

3. Curran
Curran blew up last week, hitting 141 points and winning his fourth straight game (streaky Curran: five wins to start, three losses in a row, and now four wins on the trot).  At 9-3, the explosion pulled him ahead of Lee on tie-break and gives him a huge boost in that race for the division.

His team has over-relied on Patriots but it may work out as the Pats have begun to click again on offense.  Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski are the three most consistent Pats and Curran starts all of them.  Palmer is a questionable QB2, probably the weakest of those in the playoff race, while Jennings has produced at a #2 level behind Jordy Nelson.  With Cruz cruising, Curran has hardly noticed.

One caution flag to wave here is at RB.  Gore has been banged up all year and traditionally misses a game or two.  If SF locks up a bye early, Gore could sit in key playoff weeks.  There is also concern for Benson, in his case more scheduling.  If either falters, the backups are LT and Ricky Williams- more of a potluck offering than a pot of gold.

As usual, this team will go as the Pats go and given the cupcake-laden schedule it will be very unsurprising to see Curran make it all the way to week 16.

2. Concannon
The commish cruised early in the year but a combination of players returning to earth and injuries have brought him back to the playoff pack at this late stage of the year.

The good news is that this has not impacted the QB position.  Brees and Eli have been and should remain the top duo in this league and behind this consistent output Concannon has managed to hold the ship steady while digging into his bench.  Ponder provides solid insurance but without either one the season is over.

RB has been an up and down ride with a variety of tiny little bothers all season but the big blow was the loss of Fred Jackson for the year.  One week removed, Wells and Mathews look to be ready to step up big and Bradshaw is back in practice but this position is weak in both the quantity and quality department.

The receiver position has been another highlight despite losing Britt for the year and Austin for most of it.  Fitzgerald has proven QB-proof while AJ Green is looking like a real blue-chipper as a rookie.  Jordy Nelson has been the best white WR outside of the thirteen colonies and Laurent Robinson has, finally, played to his talent.  Finley, at TE, has been a bust but does look to have an easy slate moving forward.

Concannon's team has been strong all year but at this point the depth is stretch a bit thin.  One injury could be a knockout blow at RB while every bit of help is needed from WR and QB.  If he holds on, though, the division title and league championship beckon and the ability to choose a semi-final opponent could prove the edge needed in this very tight playoff race.

1. Lee
All four of the other contenders have holes at critical spots but Lee is not one of them- the prime reason for his inclusion here.  QB1, RB1, WR1...all set for Lee with Rodgers, McCoy, and Johnson.

The issue stressed for Lee all year was depth and his move for AP kind of addressed it, until he got hurt.  Still, AP should be good to go soon and with Lynch and Blount now re-emerging it seems that Lee has the RB support to overcome what has been a dreadful decision to buy Phillip Rivers.  The same could be said of Dez Bryant, a tough play each week who has been bailed out by solid showings from Calvin Johnson.  If Nicks can start returning to form, Lee looks to be in good shape at WR.

Like all teams, an injury would now hurt Lee but what was a depth problem in week 1 is now a more universal concern in that it is shared by all teams at this stage.  Thus, given the talent level at the top spots and steady RB work shown of late it seems Lee is, at this point, the favorite to win the Superbowl.  Both Brett and Malinn, tough outs at this stage, will look to show otherwise and perhaps keep Lee out of the playoffs entirely but provided he sneaks in it could once again prove to be Lee's year.

Power Rankings- Delayed

Power Rankings have been postponed until tomorrow...please check in and sorry for the inconvenience.  If anyone has ideas for a quick bit of writing over these next two weeks, post in the comments or on the thread.  I've got a 2011 draft lookback and a 2012 'Power Rankings' of sorts in the works (plus a playoff picture update, MNF, the usual)- any additional ideas would be welcome.

Quick Playoff Picture Update

Happy December...a look at the many races taking place in the last two weeks.

Norwood Division
At this stage, Concannon (9-3) holds a one-game edge on TMac (8-4) for the division lead.  Ahead by nearly 250 points, Concannon also holds the tie-breaker, effectively making this a one and a half game lead.  For TMac to win the division, he would need to win the head-to-head match in week 13, beat Curran in week 14, and hope Thompson can pull off the upset over Concannon in their rivalry week showdown.  It seems very unlikely that Concannon, despite a handful of injuries, will not win the division.

Mustang Division
A little murkier here, Curran is ahead of DFlam at this moment by tie-breaker and is likely to retain this edge through the end of the season. Both teams sit at 9-3.  Lee, at 8-4, is one back but could compete with Curran in the event of a tie if he outscores Curran by 31 points over the last two weeks.  All three sides face opponents out of the race this week- Lee gets Brett, Curran faces Nemo, DFlam grapples with Thompson- but rivalry week sees slightly tougher competition.  At this point, Curran is the favorite thanks to the tie-breaker edge over DFlam and the one-game lead over Lee but he could slip up in week 14 to TMac, potentially giving the other two gentlemen an opening.

Number One Seed- League Championship
The race for the championship basically comes down to whether Concannon loses or not.  If he wins out, the points lead he holds will likely be enough to win any tie-breakers with the Mustang Division champion.  If he does manage to drop a game, the winner of the Mustang Division will likely be ahead on W-L record and take the spoils.

Wild Card Positions
DFlam is in at 9-3 while Lee edges TMac via the tie-breaker by nearly 150 points.  TMac's point total is very poor at this stage- he trails almost all competitors by at least sixty points- so he would likely need two wins in the last two to grab a wild card position.  One win would give him nine total for the season, not enough to edge Curran or DFlam, who are already on nine, so in that scenario Lee would need to lose twice.

Predictions?
The Commissioner boastfully predicts his own squad to take the #1 seed and the league championship while he likes Lee to get upset by Malinn in rivalry week but for it to be an ultimately moot point as Lee skates in via tie-breaker for the last wild card spot.  Curran fills in the other division championship, edging 11-3 DFlam on yet another tie-breaker.

Week 12 Mini-Preview

Curran-Tighe

This one looks out of reach for Tighe as upsets require touchdowns and he did not get them from either Crabtree or Thomas.  Curran did leave himself slightly vulnerable here with a poor Gore showing but a solid Brady night and a TD to either Welker or Gronk should do it.  Does Vince Young just win games?  Not in fantasy.  If things are tight, it will likely fall to Manningham (Tighe) against Cruz (Curran) on Monday.

Concannon-Malinn

This one looks like it could go either way after Rice had a ho-hum outing against the Niners and Laurent Robinson cushioned Romo's solid day by catching both of his TDs.  Both sides are running unusual 'formations'- Malinn is going double tight ends, no doubt inspired by the Pats, while Concannon trots out a four-WR set for the first time all year as his star continues to fade.  The big edge at RB favors Malinn but it is likely that it will be up for grabs on MNF with Concannon holding both QBs and Malinn just praying that Jimmy Graham gets some love.

Brett-TMac

Stafford salvaged his day late while Murray failed to hit the end zone, giving TMac a boost early in this tilt.  This one could be decided by 4pm as both of Brett's QBs, Fitz and Bradford, take the field.  Big games from both could put TMac in a bit of discomfort.

Lee-DFlam

A big showdown saw Lee make the first move as he got 33 from three players.  The AP injury is a big blow, potentially enough to knock him out of the playoffs, but as anyone who watched Ravens-Niners knows, Blount had a big run against Green Bay!  This one could come down to Colston-Nicks on MNF.

Nemo-Thompson

Nemo has been hit hard by the flopping of CJ and Hillis but his QB tandem of Dalton and Big Ben are certainly above average and could provide a base from which he could launch some upsets late.  He will look to pick up steam against a Thompson team that, literally, has had no chance of winning for four straight weeks.

Suck for Luck? My Luck Sucked!

Hi,

Annual luck analysis, here is the refresher.

-Rank all the scores for each week
-Top score gets a nine, next highest an eight.  Low score gets a zero.
-Add all the points for the year and divide by 9 (so the top score gets a 'guaranteed' win)
-The result is the 'expected wins' based on points scored relative to the league, per week

2011 Luck Standings, Weeks 1-11
Concannon, 8.28
Lee, 8.22
Curran, 7.50
TMac, 6.61
DFlam, 6.56
Malinn, 5.89
Brett, 3.83
Tighe, 3.61
Thompsom. 2.28
Nemo, 2.22

2011 Adjusted Standings (Actual - Projected)
DFlam, +1.44
TMac, +1.39
Thompson, +0.72
Curran, +0.50
Malinn, +0.11
Lee, -0.22
Concannon, -0.28
Tighe, -1.11
Nemo, -1.22
Brett, -1.33

Seems, for the most part, that teams made their own luck this year.  A couple of interesting observations from the table, first, Tighe led the league in last place scoring performances after seven weeks.  However, he no longer holds that lead as Thompson has, incredibly, finished last for four straight weeks!  An incredible feat, in my opinion.  Other notes...

-Concannon leads the league with five top finishes but four of those came before week 7.
-Nemo seems unlucky but these stats are lying- he has yet to crack the top half of a scoring week.  This is the Madden Curse, I believe, at full play.
-The 'form table'- the standings for just the last three weeks- show Lee (21.5), TMac and Malinn (21), and Curran (20.5) to be in fine shape heading into the stretch run.  Fellow contenders DFlam (12, as Cam has turned back into a rookie) and Concannon (14, as injuries pile up) are limping toward the finish.
-Brett was touted as a sleeper yesterday but Tighe has posted a 6 and a 5 in the last three weeks to indicate some possible upset-mindedness of his own.

Stretch Run Preview: Schedule

A quick look at the key battles remaining and the likely implications on the chase for the four playoff positions.  Currently, Concannon leads TMac and Malinn in the Norwood Division while Lee is just ahead of Curran and DFlam by tiebreaker in the Mustang Division.

Week 12
Tighe v Curran
Malinn v Concannon
TMac v Brett
Lee v DFlam
Nemo v Thompson

A 'dead rubber' contest between Nemo and Thompson indicates two key head-to-head clashes and indeed that is exactly what we have as Malinn meets Concannon and Lee grapples with DFlam.

First, the Concannon-Malinn tilt is yet another 'playoff' game for Malinn as his 6-5 record means no more slips can be tolerated.  In what is not an unusual position, Malinn is down in the standings but charging fast in a trademark late season surge.  However, in what has been a strange top-heavy year he finds himself two full games out of the playoffs with three to go and might become the second nine-win team to miss the playoffs.  A win here would give him a good chance meet Lee in Week 14 with something on the line as Tighe could provide easy opposition in Week 13.  Concannon, meanwhile, has led the league from the starting gun but could find himself out of the playoff picture entirely with a loss.  However, with Lee-DFlam going it is more likely that he remains in the playoffs by a tie-breaker.

The Lee-DFlam matchup has plenty of intrigue as at this point it seems only Curran could overtake Lee to win the division by a tie-breaker.  Therefore, a DFlam victory is critical as he will need to be ahead of the Korean by a clear game to earn the honor of a divisional championship.  Both face Brett but with DFlam getting Thompson and Lee facing Malinn the schedule edge looking ahead is with DFlam so there is some urgency here for Lee, as well.

Other notes
-Brett has provided tough opposition of late but TMac has won six straight and should continue his winning ways
-Tighe hit 100 last week and a repeat could make life uncomfortable for Curran

Week 13
Brett v Lee
Malinn v Tighe
TMac v Concannon
Nemo v Curran
Thompson v DFlam

The Concannon-TMac showdown headlines this slate as the division title could be on the line.  It is a rematch of a 92-90 win for TMac in week 9.

The remaining four games see four playoff contender meet four Luck contenders.  More to come on the specifics in a week but Brett-Lee jumps out as a potential banana skin.

Week 14
Malinn v Lee
Tighe v Nemo
TMac v Curran
Concannon v Thompson
Brett v DFlam

Rivalry Week returns in full glory with a slate of juicy matchups.  Malinn-Lee could, provided Malinn gets to eight wins, be for a playoff berth while TMac-Curran could be the same.  Concannon-Thompson and Brett-DFlam will certainly see spoiler intrigue while Tighe-Nemo, the league oldest rivalry, will be relegated to ESPNTapeDelay given the lack of playoff implications.

Summary

Top Matchup- Week 13, Concannon-TMac
Seems this way now, at least.  Given the massive points gap, Concannon would need to trail TMac by a full two games entering week 14 for the division to be clinched.  Therefore, this game will likely decide the title- two wins to close the year by TMac should give him the honors while a Concannon win will likely force a desired tie-breaker.

Toughest Schedule- TMac
A tough call as the six contenders all face at least one team on the outside but TMac gets two eight-win opponents to close out the year along with a tricky game against Brett.  On the flip side, Curran gets the easiest slate with both Tighe and Nemo before a final-week TMac showdown.

Spoiler- Brett
With three games against eight-win squads Brett is in a unique position to upset the balance of the playoff chase.  His stable of running backs gives him a good chance as the weather turns south but the key man may be Sam Bradford, in the middle of a tough year, getting his act together against lesser opponents in December.  Thompson and Nemo, with solid quarterbacking, and Tighe, who hit 100 last week, are all candidates, but none of the three has the schedule Brett has.

Power Rankings, Week 2

Last week in parenthesis (!), mush...

10. DFlam (9)- Is Cam for real?  Colston and SJax add to the injury pileup and I am unconvinced about McGahee as a flex play.  Roddy, the low scorer, is a positive but I need one more week from CAM before I get really giddy about this squad.

9. Nemo (8)- Strong QB play here is a plus and Henne could be real steal deal.  CJ is on pace for 144...carries...give me the over, but I am very worried about Kansas City.  Big-plus to McCluster, a potential RB4 due to his qualifications as a W/T, but unfortunately at the moment Nemo may not have the RB3 to allow this.



8. Curran (10)- Say what you (I) will (did) on this team but I whiffed badly on Benson.  Gresham, too, looks a big player and LT has started strong, again- can he avoid the late fade?  So long as Mr. Brady keeps chugging along, who knows where this team climbs?


7. Thompson (6)- So far, so good, but Thompson is relying on Denver (Orton) KC (Cassel, Charles) and Indy (Addai) to overcome poor team play to produce good numbers- I think only Charles gets them, unless Orton sticks a full sixteen games in.  Harvin, Doucet, and Sproles could all be saviors, provided you like McNabb to exceed 39 yards this week (tentative OVER).

6. Tighe (7)- QB2 is only the biggest hole for any team in the league at the moment but strong showings otherwise make him a dangerous #6.  Steve Smith- big time swipe?  And with Foster yet to even play, this team is bubbling with potential.


5. Brett (5)- Strength across the board means the Collie loss looks OK.  Who else likes the look of Fitzpatrick for MVP?


4. TMac (2)- A strong start for Mac Attack but two question guys (in my mind, the same mind that went g.tate-gilyard-jacoby-i.just.threw.up.in.my.mouth atop last year’s rook draft) are Mendenhall and DeAngelo- neither did anything. We’ll keep an eye on it here at power ranking headquarters but TMac- already shopping Maclin- might need to hit that deep, deep WR pool a little earlier than expected.

3. Malinn (#3)- Bush and Greene look a bit dud-ish but overall the team did as well as expected. Graham, Plax, Bess stepped up big- can they keep pace?

#2 The Commish (4)
'In the first edition of guest writer on the power rankings I put Timmy at #2. He should start getting a cut of the pot just based on the work he puts in but we'll address that later. Team wise, Timmy's got a strong overall squad with Brees, Fitz, and Finley locking down the 1 spot at their respective positions. Much like the rest of the league the commish has some questions at RB but with multiple options to choose for Timmy could be poised for a strong run this year.' -Papa Coffee

Lovely stuff there.  And for the finale...

#1. Lee (#1)- #1 is #1, though we already see cracks- Nicks hobbling, Dez having some sort of ‘cramps’, Marhsawn Lynch being about what he was for all but that one play last year, Calvin limping. But, the rule of power rankings (JUST MADE NOW) is if you are #1, you stay #1, provided you win. Good luck Lee- another #1 v #2 this week.

NFFL Schedule Update

Power Rankings coming up later today...we'll aim for around 4pm.

Norwood Division

1. Malinn

2. Tighe

3. TMac

4. Concannon

5. Brett

Mustang Division

A. Lee

B. Nemo

C. Curran

D. Thompson

E. DFlam

*Please note that the schedule below is based entirely off of the schedule skeleton- in the event of a discrepancy, the skeleton, which I have checked for accuracy, takes precedence over the schedule below.

NFFL Schedule

Week 1

Malinn v Thompson

Tighe v DFlam

TMac v #1 Lee

Concannon v Nemo

Brett v Curran

Week 2

Malinn v Curran

Tighe v Thompson

TMac v DFlam

Concannon v Lee

Brett v Nemo

Week 3

Tmac v Thompson

Malinn v Brett

Tighe v Concannon

Lee v Curran

Nemo v DFlam

Week 4

Concannon v DFlam

Malinn v TMac

Tighe v Brett

Lee v Nemo

Curran v Thompson

Week 5

Malinn v Lee

Tighe v TMac

Concannon v Brett

Nemo v Curran

Thompson v DFlam

Week 6

Tighe v Nemo

Malinn v Concannon

TMac v Brett

Lee v Thompson

Curran v DFlam

Week 7

TMac v Curran

Malinn v Brett

Tighe v Concannon

Lee v DFlam

Nemo v Thompson

Week 8

Concannon v Thompson

Malinn v TMac

Tighe v Brett

Lee v Curran

Nemo v DFlam

Week 9

Brett v DFlam

Malinn v Tighe

TMac v Concannon

Nemo v Curran

Thompson v DFlam

Week 10

Malinn v Nemo

Tighe v TMac

Concannon v Brett

Lee v Thompson

Curran v DFlam

Week 11

Malinn v DFlam

Tighe v Lee

TMac v Nemo

Concannon v Curran

Brett v Thompson

Week 12

Tighe v Curran

Malinn v Concannon

TMac v Brett

Lee v DFlam

Nemo v Thompson

Week 13

Brett v Lee

Malinn v Tighe

TMac v Concannon

Nemo v Curran

Thompson v DFlam

Week 14

Malinn v Lee

Tighe v Nemo

TMac v Curran

Concannon v Thompson

Brett v DFlam

Week 15

NFFL Semi-Finals

Week 16

NFFL Superbowl

Week 13 (D): 5 v A

Week 14: Rivalry Week

Schedule Skeleton

Norwood Division

1. Malinn

2. Tighe

3. TMac

4. Concannon

5. Brett

Mustang Division

A. Lee

B. Nemo

C. Curran

D. Thompson

E. DFlam

Division Games (replace 1 with A, 2 with B, etc.)

* For these games below, the non-divisional game is listed.  Fill in the rest of the schedule by matching the number on the left of the colon with the pairings on the right.  So, for Week 3, the Norwood Division matchups are 1 v 5 and 2 v 4, the Mustang Division A v C and B v E.

1: 2 v 3, 4 v 5

2: 1 v 4, 3 v 5

3: 1 v 5, 2 v 4

4: 1 v 3, 2 v 5

5: 1 v 2, 3 v 4

Schedule Skeleton

Week 1:  1 v D, 2 v E, 3 v A, 4 v B, 5 v C

Week 2:  1 v C, 2 v D, 3 v E, 4 v A, 5 v B

Week 3 (D): 3 v D

Week 4 (D): 4 v E

Week 5 (D): 1 v A

Week 6 (D): 2 v B

Week 7 (D): 3 v C

Week 8 (D): 4 v D

Week 9 (D): 5 v E

Week 10 (D): 1 v B

Week 11: 1 v E, 2 v A, 3 v B, 4 v C, 5 v D

Week 12 (D): 2 v C

Week 13 (D): 5 v A

Week 14: Rivalry Week

Season Preview, Part 1: Analysis

Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back…

Football is here, and with it, another NFFL season.  Not sure how you all felt about the chances of a lockout but it does feel good to be on the eve of another campaign.  We all know what this is so I’ll skip the intro…

There is not much to cover here, except for everything, so why not just dive right in?  For simplicity, we’ll move chronologically, building up to the all-important POWER RANKINGS. 

Keeper Chatter

Yes, folks, I’ll skip a three-paragraph celebration of my lottery win. 

Keepers for us, in general, have reached a stage where teams are building depth while spending wildly in the auction for big names- a perfect balance, in my opinion.  Unlike in past seasons, no teams really seemed to be above and beyond the pack with their keeper list.

If any team did get a leg up, it was Tighe, defending NFFL regular season champion, with his two-headed monster of Arian Foster and Michael Vick.  I am not a fan of either player this season, in particular, but the reality is that I say such things in relation to their top of the draft status.  At a combined $21 million, Tighe has bought two for essentially a 60% valuation- of one. 

However, if I were to cherry-pick a player from Tighe, I may give Vincent Jackson a long, long look.  Certainly, a Mr. Rivers will do so, time and again, and the combination of Foster’s hamstring and Vick’s general inability to stay totally healthy might make me declare the Charger receiver to be the pick of the bunch.  In any event, Tighe was likely the clubhouse leader- think about massive RB sleeper Felix Jones a distant, but not inconsequential, fourth among his keepers and you get an idea of the depth here.

Any challengers?  I see fellow Holy Cross alum TMac as a threat with his loaded QB duo of Freeman and Stafford, the over-used Mendenhall, and 2010 second half darling Santonio ‘Wait, in Pittsburgh weed is worse than guns or rape?’ Holmes.  The loss of Moeaki to IR is a blow but TMac is off to a good start- keep an eye on Mr. Manningham, already up to #2 in the ‘Players with ‘Manning’ in their surname’ power poll.

Anyone else?  Thompson gets quantity over quality, his thirteen keepers giving him plenty of auction cash (a bit too much, maybe!)  Jamaal Charles was likely the best RB value (and perhaps best RB, period) in the keeper pool while I remain a fan of Bernard Scott-Free, as in free from jail, and like Harvin to be the only decent receiver for McNabb- a QB who perennial finds one guy and turns him into a star producer.  Nemo may have overpaid for Moreno but who knows how John Fox will use him?  Big Ben remains a big time QB at just $14, likely half his market value. 

The Lee-Malinn rivalry looks to remains heated, Malinn loading up with cheap QB talent in Kolb and McCoy while Rice and Greene give him two starting RBs.  Is Mike Wallace for real? Malinn hopes, as his $6 tag is good value if he develops into a true #1.  Lee continues to reap the rewards of his Nicks-McCoy first round haul, the two headlining a solid keeper class that includes Dez Bryant, LeGarrett Blount, and Kerry Meier. 

DFlam came in with high hopes for Tebow but settled for second Best, Mike Williams of Tampa also providing a strong second-year presence.  Curran, stripped bare in a playoff run, retained the promising Taylor Price and hope Sanchez can make use of his weaponry. 

Brett and Concannon, occupying the basement after years of strong teams, came in with solid groups.  Brett looks to a Bradford-Fitzpatrick axis to lead his QBs while hoping Collie can keep his head clear.  Concannon went in for high volume at RB and WR, Bradshaw and Austin being the key men among a surplus of cheap hopefuls.

Trade activity was limited but a second round choice for Forte and Gates was a good return for Curran.   The table was set for what promised to be a crucial auction with so many teams with clear holes to fill.

Auction Analysis.

As mentioned, the depth element in the keeper list made for a quick, high-priced auction.  Although I lack the numbers, I would be willing to bet that this was the highest purchase value, per player, we have ever had in the auction-

QB

A number of cheap keepers in the mid to low teens meant that top guns were at a premium.  Five cracked $28 million while just three went for between $4 and $17- a clear indicator that the middle of the position was simply gone.

Best Buy: Jay Cutler, $9 million, Nemo

Ranked #11 on my board, Cutler went to Nemo just after I found $18 million for the Healthy Manning (#10).  A huge value for Nemo but there are minor issues.  For one, the Bears radically slowed down last year, a ten game stretch that saw them win many times more than some duos in this league expected (MalinnConcannon), as Wacky Mike Martz did things such as run the ball and call conservative routes that stunned the NFC.

If this trend continues, Cutler may lose his unique ‘NFFL Value’, the strange trend in our league that sees high turnover guys like Cutler go around the same relative value as he would in a regular, interception-penalty league.  However, given the massive drop from Eli and Ryan at $18, Cutler’s buy was a massive coup for Nemo and set the stage for perhaps his best auction as an NFFL member.

Worst Buy: None

The strangest thing- no QB went for more than $2 above his valuation.  One could argue that Peyton Manning was, and perhaps he was, but at the time no one knew the deal with his neck.  Think about this- Tighe did not bother to ‘insure’ him at auction but found, let’s say, a bit of cash to get Kerry Collins (#1 in the Kerry Poll, sorry Meier!)- a clear indication of how this situation has changed in just two weeks.

Best Performance: Brett

Hard to argue with here as Brett turned Cassel, a shaky keeper, to Thompson, then snagged a solid buy in Schaub from DFlam as part of the Best deal.  The result was a nice trio of arms that make Brett a strong contender early in the season.

Strategy Question

I was curious, as the Vince Young rights holder, why Tighe did not approach with a trade offer.  Young, at $3 million, is a massive overpay in my mind- unless you own Vick.  Would it have made some sense for Tighe to offer some kind of draft choice for the rights to him and save a couple of dollars or did the strategy to outbid make more sense?  The same situation, interestingly, came up with Owen Daniels, another of my rights- Tighe bid $3, again, when perhaps a deal for his rights would have saved money.  Curious if anyone else has thoughts on this chapter of auction strategy.

Wrapping Up

-Brett won big years back by stashing Rodgers away for $0.  Is Lee following those footsteps with Matt Flynn at $0?

-Garrard was involved in a draft day deal…

-A bit surprised that Rivers went for the same price as (over) proven commodities Brady and Brees- $30 million.  Did expectations get ahead of the price here?  A good buy, nonetheless.

-Lee went PBR, his tandem of Rodgers and Rivers costing a smooth $63 million, leaving him no cash to purchase Alex- ah, never mind.

-Malinn wins the comedy award, his Romo purchase and Whitehurst draft selection being the main drivers.

-I have a feeling we find out Flacco is not the QB the rest of America thinks he is.

RB

Keeping in mind that I ranked these players BEFORE the Ryan Williams injury, I had only nine of the top 24 (Beanie Wells- #24) available for purchase.  This dynamic made for interesting bidding, indeed.  Let’s get into the thick of it.

Best Buy: Maurice Jones-Drew, $24, DFlam

I also considered Gore here, at $19, and suspect I’ll get more than a $1 of value from Woodhead.  But I think MJD is fine- the injury last year was a lot more serious from what I have heard and this Jaguars team, well, quite frankly, would have about 25 ‘chances’ in our rookie lottery next summer if they were an NFFL team.  I’m looking at MJD to have a big year.

Worst Buy: Cedric Benson, $9, Curran, (bail included)

Good lord- Curran becomes the first NFFL manager to see a player sent to jail DURING THE SEASON.  Lee, the bookies’ favorite at 1-5, loses in this bet. 

As we saw with MJD, the value was lacking at RB.- scarcity and smart managers will do that.  As a result, I saw more bad value here than good.  I think AP, at $35, is overpaid, thought not by much, and feel Nemo was foolish to risk $32 million on CJ in the midst of a holdout.  Is Michael Turner really worth $19 million when his total usage rate over the last four years is really getting up there?  Hightower, at $6, seems a ridiculous price for a Shanahan RB.  Reggie Bush, at $3 million, seems a bargain until you recall that he is Reggie Bush.

Best Performance: DFlam

Clear-cut winner here is DFlam.  He bought at market price when the market was a bit up, securing Forte at a good pre-auction value and adding MJD and Jackson at reasonable value.  His heist may be McGahee- a reasonable $1 million investment for a runner in an unclear situation. 

Strategy Question

With two strong starters in Charles and McFadden along with a good back-up in Addai, Thompson had a big opportunity to pace the field at this position.  Instead, he spent $10 million on Jonathan Stewart, apparently his half-brother given how often he buys him, and found $10 LEFT OVER at auction’s end.  Call me crazy but I was shocked to see Thompson not at the top of the head for any of those nine runners I mentioned given his payroll situation.

Wrapping Up

-The nine: AP, CJ, DeAngelo, Gore, MJD, Jackson, Hillis, Turner, Grant.  Hated Grant at $10, by the way- I just do not see him getting the fifteen touches he regularly needs to contribute.

-Loved that Nemo added CJ and Hillis but not sure why he did not bother to secure Ringer- especially as he had secured Hillis with Hardesty.  Still, a good use of half his cap to secure those two.

-Brett hinted that he liked AP given how much value he would retain late in case he needed to dismantle- interesting.

-I cannot believe I got in a bidding war for Isaac Redman.  Or, perhaps, a bidding hand-slap with Lee, as he went for $1.

-Tighe got Tolbert for $5 but, unlike those earlier purchases I mentioned, this was not a case of him buying a guy I targeted.

WR

With RB providing no relief to needy squads, some spare dollars were sure to turn up here and no one was disappointed.  Five players, perhaps a record, hit $19, three in the $20’s.  Only four of the top fourteen by my count were off the board but depth was problematic- my rankings showed nine of the players from #15 to #25 were out.

Best Buy: Reggie Wayne, $12, Brett

We’ll see- for the record, I liked Steve Smith of Carolina to Tighe at $3, Sims-Walker to TMac at $1, and Brandon Lloyd to Malinn at $8, too- but Wayne, to me, represents an interesting case.  Is he risky, as many say, or riskless, as his mother might?  I would argue that in the event Peyton sits, Wayne, the clear #1, could see more throws than he otherwise might.  If Peyton plays, we all know what he is.   I am curious to see how this one plays out but Brett may have gotten himself a #1 for the price of two Anquan Boldins.

Worst Buy: Greg Jennings, $20, Curran

Not sure on this one- I’m nitpicking, I think, as at the end of the day Greg Jennings is a big-time guy.  But was he equal to Calvin Johnson, or a (million) dollar(s) better than White?  It seems a stretch to suggest he is tied for second at the position, which is exactly what the market says.  I am also a little wary on DeSean Jackson at $15- the fact that he was dealt probably both confirms and refutes this.

Best Performance: TMac

Need a WR? Ask me, says TMac, as he left the auction with as impressive a stable of pass-catchers as has ever been assembled in any sense, excluding my rookie draft from last year, of course. 

TMac currently has Holmes, Sims-Walker, and Manningham.  On the bench.  His buy of Andre Johnson was the equivalent of investing in a treasury bond- safe, reliable- while the Jackson trade could prove to be home run element needed in an otherwise stable lineup.  The tiny concern is having two Eagles in the lineup, with Maclin, but we’ll see how that one plays out- both players retain strong trade value.

Strategy Observation

In the past, I have railed on the ‘second-tier’ of WR being overpaid.  This year, that group was essentially cut out by keepers and the result was a smooth, sensible WR market. 

Wrapping Up

-Does anyone believe Welker and Ochocinco are each worth $7 million more than Deion Branch?

-In fact, with Boldin the exception at $6, I did not like those bought for $4-$7.  Colston, Ocho, Welker, Garcon- all have questions about workload, health, age, you name it, and all have competition from within their own teams.  We are sure to see some busts from that group, I predict.

-Malinn likes Burress for $1- me too, but for actually a dollar.  I guess I just have this thing about guys coming out of prison.

TE

I’ll abandon the format for this thinner position in favor a free-flowing narrative.  As I mentioned about six times in the auction, three players were bought at $6 with a fourth, Finley, kept at the same price.  I like Finley, of course, but we’ll see how Clark, Davis, and Witten do.  My money is on that order, in reverse. 

Tighe bought Owen Daniels at $3, making him the seventh highest paid TE.  Although he has great potential, enough for me to swap a sixth round pick just to secure his rights, late, I wonder if the ‘underrated’ element to Daniels actually inflated the salary? 

Jared Cook, a massive talent, was the subject to a key trade.  However, at $1, I suspect he remains overpaid.

Interestingly, despite the recent rule change, teams in general avoided $0 punts on young players- Pettigrew, Celek, going unbought- and continued a trend of securing good back-up tight ends in the rookie draft.

Rookie Draft Analysis

I’ll break this up by day- day one is round one, day two, rounds two and three, day three, the rest, mirroring the NFL draft. 

BREAKING NEWS: Tighe has, via cryptic text, placed Malinn in the Norwood Division.  As Malinn plays Thompson in week one, Concannon joins him, while Lee takes a place in the Mustang Division alongside the defending champion.

Day One Breakdown

Best Pick: Julio Jones, WR, Tighe

Not a reverse jinx- I believe strongly in Jones for the 2011 season.  I selected Green on two factors.  First, my depth at WR- Austin, Britt, Fitzgerald- allowed me to think a little more long-term at the top.  Second, Green seems to be a rare QB-proof guy, someone who is sure to be a #1 as soon as this Sunday and will remain there for some time.  Roddy White, to me, reduces Julio’s value.

For this year, though, Tighe did very well, adding a top talent who has looked better than any rookie in the pre-season.  The impact of a QB on a young WR is indisputable- look at how someone like Mike Wallace broke out with a top QB at the controls while perhaps more talented peers from that class stumbled- and Jones adds a new dimension to the offense that ensures his involvement.  Time will tell on which of these two becomes the better (all) pro, but, for now, Tighe got a strong player in what was generally thought to be a weak and lockout-hamstrung rookie class.

Worst Pick: Stevan Ridley, RB, Lee

Not a popular choice at all, now or then.  Lee went high, higher than anyone thought, for a hometown guy that impressed in two second-string laden preseason outings.  The risks here are almost unending- drafted second after Vereen in the same class, stuck behind two solid backs, the general platoon philosophy in New England, the availability of other, more promising backs, it goes on and on.  We, in general, and I, in particular, have been wrong before (I’ve been wrong almost ALL the time) but my feeling is that Ridley would have been around at #16 and more relevantly, is likely the second best runner from his own team’s draft- both in real life, via Vereen, and in the NFFL, thanks to Lee snatching Delone Carter.

Intriguing Pick: Cam Newton, QB, DFlam

BREAKING NEWS: Tighe has been placed in the Norwood Division, joining Malinn and Concannon.  Nemo heads across town to face Lee and Thompson.

DFlam puts the running QB theory to the test, Newton being perhaps the classic ‘good but not at throwing’ running QB prospect.  In a tough draft, DFlam gets a guy who looks a good bet to hit 800 rushing yards if he starts sixteen games but may not be quite so sure to hit 800 yards passing- perhaps a slight exaggeration.  In a draft teeming with QB prospects, taking Newton this early is a signal of confidence from the Tebow owner.

Other comments

-Nemo surprised no one by selecting ‘The QB Most Likely To Start The Most In The Next Three Years’, Andy Dalton.  I like the pick but suspect Dalton might outrun his keeper eligibility before he becomes a true starter in our league.

-TMac went RB heavy, Thomas and Helu representing two promising back up players.  Thomas so far has looked a bit, er, busty, but he’s a big lad who might punch in any number of the half-dozen touchdowns (projected) Miami will score in 2011.  Helu has impressed but could see some serious Shanahan-igans yank around his value.

-Ingram goes to a tough spot in New Orleans but at #4 represented good value at a drop-off point in the draft. 

BREAKING NEWS: Thompson welcomes Curran to the fold in the Mustang Division, TMac thus relegated to the Norwood Division.

-Gabbert, to Lee at nine, and Locker, to Thompson at ten, started a run of QBs.  Both are solid bets to emerge as starters next year and though I rate Locker slightly higher there is no telling who will be what.  I do like the surrounding talent in Nashville a bit, for what that is worth.

Day Two

Best Pick: Kenall Hunter, RB, Concannon

This was a tough call for two reasons.  One, I am not a fan of ‘crowing myself’.  Two, I just had no idea. 

Still, Hunter is looking a good bet to post a fifteen-point game or two with Gore’s over-exaggerated but generally reliable injury history.  The problem with Hunter is that, although he might be good value at #22, he could be stuck behind Gore for the next three years.  Other options, such as Delone Carter for Lee and Shane Vereen for TMac, could ascend to more significant roles sooner.  And who is to count out Ryan Williams or Mikel LeShoure, two potential dark horses as they return from injury?  No running backs went after #23 on Day Two but of those many picked there are positivie remarks to be made for nearly all. 

Worst Pick: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Curran

It seemed to me that selecting a tight end at this point was a bit of a stretch given the lack of talent at the position in this draft along with an abundance of veteran options still remaining in the pool at this point.  Yes, I know I picked a tight end two slots before.

Intriguing Pick: Greg Little, WR, Nemo

Other options include my pick of Ryan Mallet, Brett snatching Jaquizz Rogers, and DFlam adding Jonathan Baldwin.  But Little, a former RB, enters a Cleveland passing game that is like Lee’s biceps- lacking definition.  Speaking of Lee…

BREAKING NEWS: Lee notes the arrival of DFlam, completing the divisions.

Norwood Division: Malinn, Tighe, TMac, Concannon, Brett

Mustang Division: Lee, Nemo, Curran, Thompson, DFlam

Little could be a big time guy by season’s end if he gains the trust of the Colt and learns the plays- two major obstacles for all rookie though perhaps the former is irrelevant for those rookies taken outside Cleveland. 

I did like DFlam’s comment on Baldwin after the draft- ‘He’s a first round pick’- and I could not agree more.  It is that ability for simple, quick analysis that I am sure we all wished I possessed.

Other Comments

-I noticed that Ingram was a talent cutoff at #4 overall, the drop to Daniel Thomas being significant in my mind.  Here, I saw a drop from Ponder, at #15, to Carter, at #16, on draft night but upon further review may move Carter up a notch.  The drop from him to Titus Young, though, is massive.

-I am curious what the league thought of my Mallet pick.

-Tighe and Malinn, obviously, were out of ideas at the end of round two, taking stash-away guys from the IR.  Given how good Ben Tate has looked, it might not be a terrible strategy, but the nature of those injuries looks more like Hardesty should be the benchmark for recovery progress.

-Lee is a fan of Vincent Brown- we’ll see more later- but I liked Thompson grabbing Cecil Shorts at the end of ‘Day Two’.  A nice sleeper there.

Schedule- Week 1

Malinn vs. Thompson

Tighe vs. DFlam

TMac vs. Lee

Concannon vs. Nemo

Brett vs. Curran

The rest to follow…

Day Three Recap

As the draft rumbles to the crapshoot section, we move into the scattered thoughts format. 

-TMac wins my favorite annual honor- the first veteran in the rookie draft- with Steve Breaston at #33.  A little late, actually, compared to past years.

-Lee, uninterested in proven players, took three rookies in round four- Denarious Moore and Jonny White are two intriguing prospects.

-TMac, with Goodson at #43, and DFlam, taking Jerome Harrison at #45, are two strong candidates for late round gold.

-Round six was a TE gold mine.  Olsen, Celek, and Pettigrew went in this round (Heath Miller chugged in to Nemo at #64 a round later).  The old, or new, adage remains true- tight ends abound late in the rookie rounds.

-I suspect that Eric Decker, to Malinn at #69, might prove to be the last decent player taken, but perhaps Chris Ivory returns to relevance at some point (#70).

-I would keep an eye on the following two guys: Jerome Simpson (TMac, #63), Jacoby Ford (Brett, #61).  Good value as sleeper WRs.

Trades

The notable move in this draft was DFlam moving into the #13 slot to snag Colin Kaepernick, a 2012 first moving to Thompson as compensation.  What the Luck?  But despite that near automatic reaction, if Kaepernick does pan out, the trade is a very good one in my book.  Given the struggles of Alex Smith in his SEVEN YEAR CAREER, we are almost certain to see him get a fair shot- not a bad punt in my opinion.

There was less action in the auction phase compared to last year where the unofficial count, and record, was twenty-five trades.  Rights went with less frequency, making assessing those moves tougher, but Orton for a 4^th felt right.  I thought a 2^nd for the bushel of rights Lee offered up was a steep price, likewise for the second given up for DeSean Jackson. 

The big in-auction move saw Brett deal #3 (Cam Newton) for Best and Schaub.  Given that this trade occurred in-auction, the deal saw considerable cash savings for Brett through Best while DFlam essentially announced to the league that he liked what he saw from Cam Newton.  Newton and Kaepernick- the duo of the future?  Time will tell but the two do fit the Tebow ‘running QB’ mold that DFlam seems to prefer these days.

Post-Auction

A malaise fell upon the league post-auction as the moves were digested and teams scrutinized.  A notable deal came about through DFlam that saw MJD and Gates move to Malinn while DFlam netted Clark, White, and Grant.  I am not a fan of Grant while loving MJD- therefore, I am much in favor of Malinn’s haul here.  But White is a near-lock to finish as a top WR while Clark is injured but perhaps not an injury risk.  Can Grant get the ball?  That’s the question for me and we’ll see how the Packers handle him as he returns from a year’s layoff.

Waiver action saw two big buys- Collins to Tighe, or should I say, Manning insurance, at $70, while Brett found himself in the Antonio Brown winner’s circle at $35.  Both solid buys and although the numbers are staggering at this stage the bank can be replenished for what I would assume should be no more than a marginal draft choice.

It’s that time…

Team by team, then, as we build to the first Power Rankings.  I may go for a new approach this year- weekly rankings- but let’s just get one done, first, shall we?

Thompson

Strengths: Overall RB quality and depth, TE depth

Weaknesses: Flex RB/WR unclear, lack of elite QB, TE quality

Thompson comes in for his first ever title defense with a balanced lineup that trends heavily towards RB strength while also playing a solid hand at QB.  I like the top duo of McFadden and Charles while Addai and Stewart are solid back up players.  At QB, Cassel as a #3 is nearly luxurious while Locker remains a prospect.  Ryan and Orton, uninspiring as starters, are solid enough to allow Charles and the big-play WRs to win some games. 

A lack of WR depth is a concern- Pettigrew and Cooley, two PRB castoffs, could provide band-aid depth at WR/TE but ineffectiveness or injury could prove problematic.  And of course, Zach Miller is far from a guarantee at TE in his new locale up in the Pacific Northwest.

Overall, Thompson has a balanced but uninspiring team with enough depth at QB and RB to see his way through the bye weeks or a potential injury crisis.  Some luck might be needed but he should be in position to at least make a deadline move or two to shore up problem areas and make another playoff run.

Brett

Strengths: RB depth and upside, reliable QB play

Weaknesses: WR position could be confusing, youth could equal slow emergence

Brett went hard to the ground last year, finishing dead last after an impressive stretch of winning teams.  To get off the ground, he went back to the ground, acquiring thirteen RBs as he rebuilt for the 2011 season.  Is this the recipe for a return to glory?

At the top, AP, Hightower, Best, and Ingram all figure to contribute early with old flame Jacobs ready to step in.  High upside in the name of a deep rookie class and veterans Starks, Bush, and almost forgotten Forsett give Brett an enviable class of runners from which surely three big-time contributors will emerge. 

That said, the youth at the position could lead to some sluggish starts.  Starks was big last year- in the real playoffs, long after Bushleague signed off.  Michael Bush looked great- in December, once the bottom spot was sown up.  Could a similar late surge in these players prove too little, too late, for Brett?  Such is the danger of a youth movement.

At QB, one has to like the Schaub + Fitzpatrick/Bradford concept.  The Rams, a ‘sexy’ sleeper, might have to hit the snooze a few times given their very tough opening schedule but Bradford might prove to be a monster down the stretch.  Fitzpatrick, leading an underrated Bills team, will surely match last year’s numbers given Buffalo’s malaise at such tasks like signing free agency and drafting good rookies.

The QB spot is a source of strength here, the consistency likely to be crucial given what I see as an entirely unpredictable receiving corps.  Two Colts, sans Peyton, might be too much to overcome, while Roy Williams is what he is- a not so sure handed receiver in an overrated passing offense.  This team might turn to Amendola, Knox, or waiver-wire gem Antonio Brown sooner than it may have liked.  Could this spot prove to be Brett’s undoing?

Lee

Strengths: NFFL’s strongest starting nine

Weaknesses: NFFL’s strongest starting nine is expensive

If the Eagles are the Philadelphia Heat, Lee, surely, is, at the minimum, the Korean Galaxy.  Indeed, it seems David Beckham is all that is missing here- up and down that lineup, stars follow stars, until surely, a constellation appears.

But the heavens have consistently dealt Lee tough news in this league and, peering below the surface, one sees a variety of concerns.  Hol-Lee-Wood comes at a price, that being depth, and plenty has been sacrificed to spend on two top QBs and a big-time WR.

We’ll just work our way down.  At QB, the precocious Alex Smith backs up two of the league’s very best- talk about a drop down.  Who is Marion Barber?  Lee’s top reserve RB.  I like Mike Thomas, too, but not as my first option off the bench at WR.  Lee possesses significant depth, relative to his other spots, at TE, where Celek would surely complain about sitting behind Marcedes Lewis, both in a movie theater and if he gave a toot about our league. 

Depth is a fickle thing to guage- how do I know who slots in where, who gets hurt, who breaks out?  But in this league, it tends to be the case that guys go down at bad times.  My bet is that Lee, holding a variety of injury prone stars, trades one of Rodgers, Rivers, or McCoy for help at some point due to some kind of slump or injury crisis.  A tough, tough team to call, for sure, as he is a week one favorite with clouds looming ahead.

TMac

Strengths: WR, WR, WR

Weaknesses: QB depth, Injury-prone RBs

TMac, as mentioned, is stocked at WR entering the year with an enviable fleet of pass catchers.  Manningham and Holmes, two reserves at the moment, would start for most teams in my opinion while Simpson, Breaston, and Sims-Walker provide good solid upside as veteran WRs.  But depth at QB and an injury at RB could prove to submarine this unit.

Last season, PBR went out and essentially ignored the back-up QB position.  A tough start and an injury led to a couple of risky trades and, ultimately, a flame out.  Romo’s injury was only a nail, not the coffin, but proved to underline the point that QB depth remains crucial to NFFL success.  With Stafford backed up ably by Hill, TMac is at least OK there, but if Freeman struggles or gets injured there could be some concerns. 

A similar premonition at RB- Turner and Mendenhall might have too much work to remains fully healthy while DeAngelo is in a train wreck spot in Carolina.  Thomas, perhaps drafted to provide some depth, is looking unsteady early on in Miami.  The top of the board looks good but the position is indeed thin.

TMac, it seems, could hold out through one crisis but might not withstand two.  If he can ward off any bad luck early, TMac might find himself wheeling and dealing from his strength out wide to reinforce one of those five QB/RB slots.  Provided these players hold up, TMac should remains right in the mix.

Malinn

Strengths: Well-balanced across the board, Gates

Weaknesses: Gates’ feet, QB2 unsteady

Romo, Romo…Malinn loves his Romo, and who can blame him?  Romo was his man all along and Malinn got him at a cool $28 million, setting the stage for another wild run across all spectrums of the power rankings.

The big move, though, was the trade for MJD and Gates, an all-in type of proposition in my mind that relies equal parts on each returning to previously absurd levels of production while also staying healthy in the process. If both can do this, Malinn might stroll into the playoffs. 

Otherwise, this could be a trade-laden struggle of a season.  At QB, the Romo itch will surely be scratched, the resulting trade sure to bring in a RB and perhaps a lesser QB.  Currently, McCoy and Kolb remain unproven commodities and there may be a need to upgrade there.  Depth, overall, is good but not particularly inspiring.  Is Greene up to the task, or perhaps, just up to hanging onto the football?

As usual, though, with Malinn, it comes down to this- why assess a team that will probably look radically different in a month?

Curran

Strengths: QB, WR solid

Weaknesses: RB could prove to be too weak to overcome

Curran’s team comes down to the most basic fantasy philosophy- get the runners.  Or, in this case, don’t, and take a big risk.

Benson, BJGE, and LT represent the weakest trio in the league.  It would be to no one’s surprise if Curran swung a deal, quickly, to add a runner or two.  With Brady enticing and some talent at WR, this could be done, but Curran might be in trouble early.

Things are, at the minimum, trending up, though.  Berrian and Smith are two strong waiver pickups, perhaps flying a bit under the radar with the insanity of the Collins and Brown bidding.  Both could see significant time by the end of September.  Grossman ‘won’ the QB job in Washington- perhaps Curran will look to cash in for some cheap RB help- while Hasselbeck will be running one of my sleeper teams this year, Tennessee.  But until a RB breaks out- and not from jail- Curran’s team will likely be scrapping along the bottom of the Mustang Division.

DFlam

Strengths: Good blend of talent at RB and WR

Weakness: QB

Like Malinn, I hesitate to even pretend this team is a finished product.  DFlam, it seems, is no longer interested in winning, but in wresting the title of ‘Trader’ from Malinn.  He is off to a good start, although trading with Malinn will not really get him any closer to the clubhouse leader.

Still, it is hard to see DFlam swinging a big enough deal to settle his QB spot.  Flacco, someone I am not particularly high on, and Cam Newton could prove to be early leaders for worst QB pairing.  The wild card, obviously, is Cam’s running, but we’ll have to wait and see.  Behind them, Garrard has more NFFL employers than NFL while others remain true-life backups.

A lot, it seems, will lean on Mike Williams, Aaron Hernandez, and Matt Forte reaching those unexpected heights they hit last year.  If those three can hit 2010 levels, there is plenty to like here.  But regression, that feared word, looks like a threat to both Tampa Bay and Chicago- could those two go down with their teams?  Hernandez might get into Colston territory- a tight end playing WR- so his performance will be crucial.

DFlam will need to hold it together but can ill afford injury or ill-performance given his QB situation.

Tighe

Strengths: Top RB talent, Vick

Weaknesses: WR position is ailing

Team Vick is actually in decent shape given the signing of Vince Young.  At the moment, though, Tighe’s squad is paying for the secrecy of Indianapolis and their medical staff as Kerry Collins is currently running with the first team. 

And why not?  Loaded or patchwork seems the philosophy here as Tighe is currently threatening to start two TE’s in week one, Daniels and Davis.  With Julio Jones, the #2 pick, at WR2, the WR position is certainly not one to boast about. 

However, that said, Tighe’s team does have an overall level of talent that is hard to match.  Crabtree, Steve Smith, Spiller, Young- all reserves, all generally expected to be ineffective, but all massively talented players.  Tighe’s team has plenty of breakout candidates and the hope must be for someone to step in and take some heat off Vick, Foster, and Gore- three of the NFFL’s trickiest injury concerns.

For now, the course must be to guide the ship through this tricky Peyton Waiting Game.  If successful in navigating that stretch, Tighe could form himself into a dangerous contender as he waits to find the right opportunity to shore up his WR position.  Until then, though, it is fingers cross at Tighe Headquarters with one eye on the injury wire.

Nemo

Strengths: Solid at QB, RB

Weaknesses: TE shaky, total lack of RB depth

Nemo has assembled an interesting squad that is high on value but low on balance.  Four outright RBs meet eleven WRs, McCluster playing the role of misfit, while his two true backup QBs are a luxury in this league.

From the top, Nemo has a lineup strong on the traditional NFFL strongholds of QB and RB.  A lot is riding on Moreno but with Fox in the fold at Denver he should see his skills better utilized.  As a pure RB3, though, Moreno is a strong play to go with Hillis and CJ.

The QB position is in good hands with Big Ben and Cutler.  Although unspectacular, the two will make Nemo very competitive each week.  The question remains, what to do about this abundance of depth?  Henne and Dalton are both lowly regarded but remain unchallenged at their spots.   Could there be a deal brewing to shore up other areas?

The concerns at WR and TE knock Nemo back towards the middle of the pack.  However, the upside at WR is significant and the potential for some breakouts are important to note.  Branch and Driver, in particular, could be overlooked veteran contributors while Shipley and Little provide young blood at the position.  Until then, though, the outlook here is competitive but no lock for the top spots.

Concannon

Strengths: Strong starters at QB, WR

Weaknesses: RB unproven, overall depth

Rating one’s own team is a tough task but as usual I’ll try to make an honest go of it.  I see the Brees-Eli tandem as among the higher duos in the league with Tavaris magnitude 7.0 shaky on the backup scale.  At WR, the trio of Fitzgerald, Austin, and Britt should be interesting enough to place in upper half of the league each week.  Though talented, they should find themselves all in improved situations this season in comparison to last.

Concerns abound at RB with unproven players scrapping against potentially washing-up veterans.  Beanie Wells moved into the starting lineup with the Williams injury, bumping Mathews, but who knows if Fred Jackson or Bradshaw can be counted on again?  The TE spot is in good hands with Finley but he has shown a tendency to show up in the doctor’s office- only the rookie Kendricks is currently on the roster.  I’m high on him but, like Tavaris, could do better.

Trading Brees is always an option- if things go south at RB, I’ll start making calls- but for now, I do feel like I have a solid starting lineup with the flexibility to make moves depending on how things go as the season progresses.

Power Rankings coming up later today…stay tuned.