Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back…
Football is here, and with it, another NFFL season. Not sure how you all felt about the chances of a lockout but it does feel good to be on the eve of another campaign. We all know what this is so I’ll skip the intro…
There is not much to cover here, except for everything, so why not just dive right in? For simplicity, we’ll move chronologically, building up to the all-important POWER RANKINGS.
Keeper Chatter
Yes, folks, I’ll skip a three-paragraph celebration of my lottery win.
Keepers for us, in general, have reached a stage where teams are building depth while spending wildly in the auction for big names- a perfect balance, in my opinion. Unlike in past seasons, no teams really seemed to be above and beyond the pack with their keeper list.
If any team did get a leg up, it was Tighe, defending NFFL regular season champion, with his two-headed monster of Arian Foster and Michael Vick. I am not a fan of either player this season, in particular, but the reality is that I say such things in relation to their top of the draft status. At a combined $21 million, Tighe has bought two for essentially a 60% valuation- of one.
However, if I were to cherry-pick a player from Tighe, I may give Vincent Jackson a long, long look. Certainly, a Mr. Rivers will do so, time and again, and the combination of Foster’s hamstring and Vick’s general inability to stay totally healthy might make me declare the Charger receiver to be the pick of the bunch. In any event, Tighe was likely the clubhouse leader- think about massive RB sleeper Felix Jones a distant, but not inconsequential, fourth among his keepers and you get an idea of the depth here.
Any challengers? I see fellow Holy Cross alum TMac as a threat with his loaded QB duo of Freeman and Stafford, the over-used Mendenhall, and 2010 second half darling Santonio ‘Wait, in Pittsburgh weed is worse than guns or rape?’ Holmes. The loss of Moeaki to IR is a blow but TMac is off to a good start- keep an eye on Mr. Manningham, already up to #2 in the ‘Players with ‘Manning’ in their surname’ power poll.
Anyone else? Thompson gets quantity over quality, his thirteen keepers giving him plenty of auction cash (a bit too much, maybe!) Jamaal Charles was likely the best RB value (and perhaps best RB, period) in the keeper pool while I remain a fan of Bernard Scott-Free, as in free from jail, and like Harvin to be the only decent receiver for McNabb- a QB who perennial finds one guy and turns him into a star producer. Nemo may have overpaid for Moreno but who knows how John Fox will use him? Big Ben remains a big time QB at just $14, likely half his market value.
The Lee-Malinn rivalry looks to remains heated, Malinn loading up with cheap QB talent in Kolb and McCoy while Rice and Greene give him two starting RBs. Is Mike Wallace for real? Malinn hopes, as his $6 tag is good value if he develops into a true #1. Lee continues to reap the rewards of his Nicks-McCoy first round haul, the two headlining a solid keeper class that includes Dez Bryant, LeGarrett Blount, and Kerry Meier.
DFlam came in with high hopes for Tebow but settled for second Best, Mike Williams of Tampa also providing a strong second-year presence. Curran, stripped bare in a playoff run, retained the promising Taylor Price and hope Sanchez can make use of his weaponry.
Brett and Concannon, occupying the basement after years of strong teams, came in with solid groups. Brett looks to a Bradford-Fitzpatrick axis to lead his QBs while hoping Collie can keep his head clear. Concannon went in for high volume at RB and WR, Bradshaw and Austin being the key men among a surplus of cheap hopefuls.
Trade activity was limited but a second round choice for Forte and Gates was a good return for Curran. The table was set for what promised to be a crucial auction with so many teams with clear holes to fill.
Auction Analysis.
As mentioned, the depth element in the keeper list made for a quick, high-priced auction. Although I lack the numbers, I would be willing to bet that this was the highest purchase value, per player, we have ever had in the auction-
QB
A number of cheap keepers in the mid to low teens meant that top guns were at a premium. Five cracked $28 million while just three went for between $4 and $17- a clear indicator that the middle of the position was simply gone.
Best Buy: Jay Cutler, $9 million, Nemo
Ranked #11 on my board, Cutler went to Nemo just after I found $18 million for the Healthy Manning (#10). A huge value for Nemo but there are minor issues. For one, the Bears radically slowed down last year, a ten game stretch that saw them win many times more than some duos in this league expected (MalinnConcannon), as Wacky Mike Martz did things such as run the ball and call conservative routes that stunned the NFC.
If this trend continues, Cutler may lose his unique ‘NFFL Value’, the strange trend in our league that sees high turnover guys like Cutler go around the same relative value as he would in a regular, interception-penalty league. However, given the massive drop from Eli and Ryan at $18, Cutler’s buy was a massive coup for Nemo and set the stage for perhaps his best auction as an NFFL member.
Worst Buy: None
The strangest thing- no QB went for more than $2 above his valuation. One could argue that Peyton Manning was, and perhaps he was, but at the time no one knew the deal with his neck. Think about this- Tighe did not bother to ‘insure’ him at auction but found, let’s say, a bit of cash to get Kerry Collins (#1 in the Kerry Poll, sorry Meier!)- a clear indication of how this situation has changed in just two weeks.
Best Performance: Brett
Hard to argue with here as Brett turned Cassel, a shaky keeper, to Thompson, then snagged a solid buy in Schaub from DFlam as part of the Best deal. The result was a nice trio of arms that make Brett a strong contender early in the season.
Strategy Question
I was curious, as the Vince Young rights holder, why Tighe did not approach with a trade offer. Young, at $3 million, is a massive overpay in my mind- unless you own Vick. Would it have made some sense for Tighe to offer some kind of draft choice for the rights to him and save a couple of dollars or did the strategy to outbid make more sense? The same situation, interestingly, came up with Owen Daniels, another of my rights- Tighe bid $3, again, when perhaps a deal for his rights would have saved money. Curious if anyone else has thoughts on this chapter of auction strategy.
Wrapping Up
-Brett won big years back by stashing Rodgers away for $0. Is Lee following those footsteps with Matt Flynn at $0?
-Garrard was involved in a draft day deal…
-A bit surprised that Rivers went for the same price as (over) proven commodities Brady and Brees- $30 million. Did expectations get ahead of the price here? A good buy, nonetheless.
-Lee went PBR, his tandem of Rodgers and Rivers costing a smooth $63 million, leaving him no cash to purchase Alex- ah, never mind.
-Malinn wins the comedy award, his Romo purchase and Whitehurst draft selection being the main drivers.
-I have a feeling we find out Flacco is not the QB the rest of America thinks he is.
RB
Keeping in mind that I ranked these players BEFORE the Ryan Williams injury, I had only nine of the top 24 (Beanie Wells- #24) available for purchase. This dynamic made for interesting bidding, indeed. Let’s get into the thick of it.
Best Buy: Maurice Jones-Drew, $24, DFlam
I also considered Gore here, at $19, and suspect I’ll get more than a $1 of value from Woodhead. But I think MJD is fine- the injury last year was a lot more serious from what I have heard and this Jaguars team, well, quite frankly, would have about 25 ‘chances’ in our rookie lottery next summer if they were an NFFL team. I’m looking at MJD to have a big year.
Worst Buy: Cedric Benson, $9, Curran, (bail included)
Good lord- Curran becomes the first NFFL manager to see a player sent to jail DURING THE SEASON. Lee, the bookies’ favorite at 1-5, loses in this bet.
As we saw with MJD, the value was lacking at RB.- scarcity and smart managers will do that. As a result, I saw more bad value here than good. I think AP, at $35, is overpaid, thought not by much, and feel Nemo was foolish to risk $32 million on CJ in the midst of a holdout. Is Michael Turner really worth $19 million when his total usage rate over the last four years is really getting up there? Hightower, at $6, seems a ridiculous price for a Shanahan RB. Reggie Bush, at $3 million, seems a bargain until you recall that he is Reggie Bush.
Best Performance: DFlam
Clear-cut winner here is DFlam. He bought at market price when the market was a bit up, securing Forte at a good pre-auction value and adding MJD and Jackson at reasonable value. His heist may be McGahee- a reasonable $1 million investment for a runner in an unclear situation.
Strategy Question
With two strong starters in Charles and McFadden along with a good back-up in Addai, Thompson had a big opportunity to pace the field at this position. Instead, he spent $10 million on Jonathan Stewart, apparently his half-brother given how often he buys him, and found $10 LEFT OVER at auction’s end. Call me crazy but I was shocked to see Thompson not at the top of the head for any of those nine runners I mentioned given his payroll situation.
Wrapping Up
-The nine: AP, CJ, DeAngelo, Gore, MJD, Jackson, Hillis, Turner, Grant. Hated Grant at $10, by the way- I just do not see him getting the fifteen touches he regularly needs to contribute.
-Loved that Nemo added CJ and Hillis but not sure why he did not bother to secure Ringer- especially as he had secured Hillis with Hardesty. Still, a good use of half his cap to secure those two.
-Brett hinted that he liked AP given how much value he would retain late in case he needed to dismantle- interesting.
-I cannot believe I got in a bidding war for Isaac Redman. Or, perhaps, a bidding hand-slap with Lee, as he went for $1.
-Tighe got Tolbert for $5 but, unlike those earlier purchases I mentioned, this was not a case of him buying a guy I targeted.
WR
With RB providing no relief to needy squads, some spare dollars were sure to turn up here and no one was disappointed. Five players, perhaps a record, hit $19, three in the $20’s. Only four of the top fourteen by my count were off the board but depth was problematic- my rankings showed nine of the players from #15 to #25 were out.
Best Buy: Reggie Wayne, $12, Brett
We’ll see- for the record, I liked Steve Smith of Carolina to Tighe at $3, Sims-Walker to TMac at $1, and Brandon Lloyd to Malinn at $8, too- but Wayne, to me, represents an interesting case. Is he risky, as many say, or riskless, as his mother might? I would argue that in the event Peyton sits, Wayne, the clear #1, could see more throws than he otherwise might. If Peyton plays, we all know what he is. I am curious to see how this one plays out but Brett may have gotten himself a #1 for the price of two Anquan Boldins.
Worst Buy: Greg Jennings, $20, Curran
Not sure on this one- I’m nitpicking, I think, as at the end of the day Greg Jennings is a big-time guy. But was he equal to Calvin Johnson, or a (million) dollar(s) better than White? It seems a stretch to suggest he is tied for second at the position, which is exactly what the market says. I am also a little wary on DeSean Jackson at $15- the fact that he was dealt probably both confirms and refutes this.
Best Performance: TMac
Need a WR? Ask me, says TMac, as he left the auction with as impressive a stable of pass-catchers as has ever been assembled in any sense, excluding my rookie draft from last year, of course.
TMac currently has Holmes, Sims-Walker, and Manningham. On the bench. His buy of Andre Johnson was the equivalent of investing in a treasury bond- safe, reliable- while the Jackson trade could prove to be home run element needed in an otherwise stable lineup. The tiny concern is having two Eagles in the lineup, with Maclin, but we’ll see how that one plays out- both players retain strong trade value.
Strategy Observation
In the past, I have railed on the ‘second-tier’ of WR being overpaid. This year, that group was essentially cut out by keepers and the result was a smooth, sensible WR market.
Wrapping Up
-Does anyone believe Welker and Ochocinco are each worth $7 million more than Deion Branch?
-In fact, with Boldin the exception at $6, I did not like those bought for $4-$7. Colston, Ocho, Welker, Garcon- all have questions about workload, health, age, you name it, and all have competition from within their own teams. We are sure to see some busts from that group, I predict.
-Malinn likes Burress for $1- me too, but for actually a dollar. I guess I just have this thing about guys coming out of prison.
TE
I’ll abandon the format for this thinner position in favor a free-flowing narrative. As I mentioned about six times in the auction, three players were bought at $6 with a fourth, Finley, kept at the same price. I like Finley, of course, but we’ll see how Clark, Davis, and Witten do. My money is on that order, in reverse.
Tighe bought Owen Daniels at $3, making him the seventh highest paid TE. Although he has great potential, enough for me to swap a sixth round pick just to secure his rights, late, I wonder if the ‘underrated’ element to Daniels actually inflated the salary?
Jared Cook, a massive talent, was the subject to a key trade. However, at $1, I suspect he remains overpaid.
Interestingly, despite the recent rule change, teams in general avoided $0 punts on young players- Pettigrew, Celek, going unbought- and continued a trend of securing good back-up tight ends in the rookie draft.
Rookie Draft Analysis
I’ll break this up by day- day one is round one, day two, rounds two and three, day three, the rest, mirroring the NFL draft.
BREAKING NEWS: Tighe has, via cryptic text, placed Malinn in the Norwood Division. As Malinn plays Thompson in week one, Concannon joins him, while Lee takes a place in the Mustang Division alongside the defending champion.
Day One Breakdown
Best Pick: Julio Jones, WR, Tighe
Not a reverse jinx- I believe strongly in Jones for the 2011 season. I selected Green on two factors. First, my depth at WR- Austin, Britt, Fitzgerald- allowed me to think a little more long-term at the top. Second, Green seems to be a rare QB-proof guy, someone who is sure to be a #1 as soon as this Sunday and will remain there for some time. Roddy White, to me, reduces Julio’s value.
For this year, though, Tighe did very well, adding a top talent who has looked better than any rookie in the pre-season. The impact of a QB on a young WR is indisputable- look at how someone like Mike Wallace broke out with a top QB at the controls while perhaps more talented peers from that class stumbled- and Jones adds a new dimension to the offense that ensures his involvement. Time will tell on which of these two becomes the better (all) pro, but, for now, Tighe got a strong player in what was generally thought to be a weak and lockout-hamstrung rookie class.
Worst Pick: Stevan Ridley, RB, Lee
Not a popular choice at all, now or then. Lee went high, higher than anyone thought, for a hometown guy that impressed in two second-string laden preseason outings. The risks here are almost unending- drafted second after Vereen in the same class, stuck behind two solid backs, the general platoon philosophy in New England, the availability of other, more promising backs, it goes on and on. We, in general, and I, in particular, have been wrong before (I’ve been wrong almost ALL the time) but my feeling is that Ridley would have been around at #16 and more relevantly, is likely the second best runner from his own team’s draft- both in real life, via Vereen, and in the NFFL, thanks to Lee snatching Delone Carter.
Intriguing Pick: Cam Newton, QB, DFlam
BREAKING NEWS: Tighe has been placed in the Norwood Division, joining Malinn and Concannon. Nemo heads across town to face Lee and Thompson.
DFlam puts the running QB theory to the test, Newton being perhaps the classic ‘good but not at throwing’ running QB prospect. In a tough draft, DFlam gets a guy who looks a good bet to hit 800 rushing yards if he starts sixteen games but may not be quite so sure to hit 800 yards passing- perhaps a slight exaggeration. In a draft teeming with QB prospects, taking Newton this early is a signal of confidence from the Tebow owner.
Other comments
-Nemo surprised no one by selecting ‘The QB Most Likely To Start The Most In The Next Three Years’, Andy Dalton. I like the pick but suspect Dalton might outrun his keeper eligibility before he becomes a true starter in our league.
-TMac went RB heavy, Thomas and Helu representing two promising back up players. Thomas so far has looked a bit, er, busty, but he’s a big lad who might punch in any number of the half-dozen touchdowns (projected) Miami will score in 2011. Helu has impressed but could see some serious Shanahan-igans yank around his value.
-Ingram goes to a tough spot in New Orleans but at #4 represented good value at a drop-off point in the draft.
BREAKING NEWS: Thompson welcomes Curran to the fold in the Mustang Division, TMac thus relegated to the Norwood Division.
-Gabbert, to Lee at nine, and Locker, to Thompson at ten, started a run of QBs. Both are solid bets to emerge as starters next year and though I rate Locker slightly higher there is no telling who will be what. I do like the surrounding talent in Nashville a bit, for what that is worth.
Day Two
Best Pick: Kenall Hunter, RB, Concannon
This was a tough call for two reasons. One, I am not a fan of ‘crowing myself’. Two, I just had no idea.
Still, Hunter is looking a good bet to post a fifteen-point game or two with Gore’s over-exaggerated but generally reliable injury history. The problem with Hunter is that, although he might be good value at #22, he could be stuck behind Gore for the next three years. Other options, such as Delone Carter for Lee and Shane Vereen for TMac, could ascend to more significant roles sooner. And who is to count out Ryan Williams or Mikel LeShoure, two potential dark horses as they return from injury? No running backs went after #23 on Day Two but of those many picked there are positivie remarks to be made for nearly all.
Worst Pick: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Curran
It seemed to me that selecting a tight end at this point was a bit of a stretch given the lack of talent at the position in this draft along with an abundance of veteran options still remaining in the pool at this point. Yes, I know I picked a tight end two slots before.
Intriguing Pick: Greg Little, WR, Nemo
Other options include my pick of Ryan Mallet, Brett snatching Jaquizz Rogers, and DFlam adding Jonathan Baldwin. But Little, a former RB, enters a Cleveland passing game that is like Lee’s biceps- lacking definition. Speaking of Lee…
BREAKING NEWS: Lee notes the arrival of DFlam, completing the divisions.
Norwood Division: Malinn, Tighe, TMac, Concannon, Brett
Mustang Division: Lee, Nemo, Curran, Thompson, DFlam
Little could be a big time guy by season’s end if he gains the trust of the Colt and learns the plays- two major obstacles for all rookie though perhaps the former is irrelevant for those rookies taken outside Cleveland.
I did like DFlam’s comment on Baldwin after the draft- ‘He’s a first round pick’- and I could not agree more. It is that ability for simple, quick analysis that I am sure we all wished I possessed.
Other Comments
-I noticed that Ingram was a talent cutoff at #4 overall, the drop to Daniel Thomas being significant in my mind. Here, I saw a drop from Ponder, at #15, to Carter, at #16, on draft night but upon further review may move Carter up a notch. The drop from him to Titus Young, though, is massive.
-I am curious what the league thought of my Mallet pick.
-Tighe and Malinn, obviously, were out of ideas at the end of round two, taking stash-away guys from the IR. Given how good Ben Tate has looked, it might not be a terrible strategy, but the nature of those injuries looks more like Hardesty should be the benchmark for recovery progress.
-Lee is a fan of Vincent Brown- we’ll see more later- but I liked Thompson grabbing Cecil Shorts at the end of ‘Day Two’. A nice sleeper there.
Schedule- Week 1
Malinn vs. Thompson
Tighe vs. DFlam
TMac vs. Lee
Concannon vs. Nemo
Brett vs. Curran
The rest to follow…
Day Three Recap
As the draft rumbles to the crapshoot section, we move into the scattered thoughts format.
-TMac wins my favorite annual honor- the first veteran in the rookie draft- with Steve Breaston at #33. A little late, actually, compared to past years.
-Lee, uninterested in proven players, took three rookies in round four- Denarious Moore and Jonny White are two intriguing prospects.
-TMac, with Goodson at #43, and DFlam, taking Jerome Harrison at #45, are two strong candidates for late round gold.
-Round six was a TE gold mine. Olsen, Celek, and Pettigrew went in this round (Heath Miller chugged in to Nemo at #64 a round later). The old, or new, adage remains true- tight ends abound late in the rookie rounds.
-I suspect that Eric Decker, to Malinn at #69, might prove to be the last decent player taken, but perhaps Chris Ivory returns to relevance at some point (#70).
-I would keep an eye on the following two guys: Jerome Simpson (TMac, #63), Jacoby Ford (Brett, #61). Good value as sleeper WRs.
Trades
The notable move in this draft was DFlam moving into the #13 slot to snag Colin Kaepernick, a 2012 first moving to Thompson as compensation. What the Luck? But despite that near automatic reaction, if Kaepernick does pan out, the trade is a very good one in my book. Given the struggles of Alex Smith in his SEVEN YEAR CAREER, we are almost certain to see him get a fair shot- not a bad punt in my opinion.
There was less action in the auction phase compared to last year where the unofficial count, and record, was twenty-five trades. Rights went with less frequency, making assessing those moves tougher, but Orton for a 4th felt right. I thought a 2nd for the bushel of rights Lee offered up was a steep price, likewise for the second given up for DeSean Jackson.
The big in-auction move saw Brett deal #3 (Cam Newton) for Best and Schaub. Given that this trade occurred in-auction, the deal saw considerable cash savings for Brett through Best while DFlam essentially announced to the league that he liked what he saw from Cam Newton. Newton and Kaepernick- the duo of the future? Time will tell but the two do fit the Tebow ‘running QB’ mold that DFlam seems to prefer these days.
Post-Auction
A malaise fell upon the league post-auction as the moves were digested and teams scrutinized. A notable deal came about through DFlam that saw MJD and Gates move to Malinn while DFlam netted Clark, White, and Grant. I am not a fan of Grant while loving MJD- therefore, I am much in favor of Malinn’s haul here. But White is a near-lock to finish as a top WR while Clark is injured but perhaps not an injury risk. Can Grant get the ball? That’s the question for me and we’ll see how the Packers handle him as he returns from a year’s layoff.
Waiver action saw two big buys- Collins to Tighe, or should I say, Manning insurance, at $70, while Brett found himself in the Antonio Brown winner’s circle at $35. Both solid buys and although the numbers are staggering at this stage the bank can be replenished for what I would assume should be no more than a marginal draft choice.
It’s that time…
Team by team, then, as we build to the first Power Rankings. I may go for a new approach this year- weekly rankings- but let’s just get one done, first, shall we?
Thompson
Strengths: Overall RB quality and depth, TE depth
Weaknesses: Flex RB/WR unclear, lack of elite QB, TE quality
Thompson comes in for his first ever title defense with a balanced lineup that trends heavily towards RB strength while also playing a solid hand at QB. I like the top duo of McFadden and Charles while Addai and Stewart are solid back up players. At QB, Cassel as a #3 is nearly luxurious while Locker remains a prospect. Ryan and Orton, uninspiring as starters, are solid enough to allow Charles and the big-play WRs to win some games.
A lack of WR depth is a concern- Pettigrew and Cooley, two PRB castoffs, could provide band-aid depth at WR/TE but ineffectiveness or injury could prove problematic. And of course, Zach Miller is far from a guarantee at TE in his new locale up in the Pacific Northwest.
Overall, Thompson has a balanced but uninspiring team with enough depth at QB and RB to see his way through the bye weeks or a potential injury crisis. Some luck might be needed but he should be in position to at least make a deadline move or two to shore up problem areas and make another playoff run.
Brett
Strengths: RB depth and upside, reliable QB play
Weaknesses: WR position could be confusing, youth could equal slow emergence
Brett went hard to the ground last year, finishing dead last after an impressive stretch of winning teams. To get off the ground, he went back to the ground, acquiring thirteen RBs as he rebuilt for the 2011 season. Is this the recipe for a return to glory?
At the top, AP, Hightower, Best, and Ingram all figure to contribute early with old flame Jacobs ready to step in. High upside in the name of a deep rookie class and veterans Starks, Bush, and almost forgotten Forsett give Brett an enviable class of runners from which surely three big-time contributors will emerge.
That said, the youth at the position could lead to some sluggish starts. Starks was big last year- in the real playoffs, long after Bushleague signed off. Michael Bush looked great- in December, once the bottom spot was sown up. Could a similar late surge in these players prove too little, too late, for Brett? Such is the danger of a youth movement.
At QB, one has to like the Schaub + Fitzpatrick/Bradford concept. The Rams, a ‘sexy’ sleeper, might have to hit the snooze a few times given their very tough opening schedule but Bradford might prove to be a monster down the stretch. Fitzpatrick, leading an underrated Bills team, will surely match last year’s numbers given Buffalo’s malaise at such tasks like signing free agency and drafting good rookies.
The QB spot is a source of strength here, the consistency likely to be crucial given what I see as an entirely unpredictable receiving corps. Two Colts, sans Peyton, might be too much to overcome, while Roy Williams is what he is- a not so sure handed receiver in an overrated passing offense. This team might turn to Amendola, Knox, or waiver-wire gem Antonio Brown sooner than it may have liked. Could this spot prove to be Brett’s undoing?
Lee
Strengths: NFFL’s strongest starting nine
Weaknesses: NFFL’s strongest starting nine is expensive
If the Eagles are the Philadelphia Heat, Lee, surely, is, at the minimum, the Korean Galaxy. Indeed, it seems David Beckham is all that is missing here- up and down that lineup, stars follow stars, until surely, a constellation appears.
But the heavens have consistently dealt Lee tough news in this league and, peering below the surface, one sees a variety of concerns. Hol-Lee-Wood comes at a price, that being depth, and plenty has been sacrificed to spend on two top QBs and a big-time WR.
We’ll just work our way down. At QB, the precocious Alex Smith backs up two of the league’s very best- talk about a drop down. Who is Marion Barber? Lee’s top reserve RB. I like Mike Thomas, too, but not as my first option off the bench at WR. Lee possesses significant depth, relative to his other spots, at TE, where Celek would surely complain about sitting behind Marcedes Lewis, both in a movie theater and if he gave a toot about our league.
Depth is a fickle thing to guage- how do I know who slots in where, who gets hurt, who breaks out? But in this league, it tends to be the case that guys go down at bad times. My bet is that Lee, holding a variety of injury prone stars, trades one of Rodgers, Rivers, or McCoy for help at some point due to some kind of slump or injury crisis. A tough, tough team to call, for sure, as he is a week one favorite with clouds looming ahead.
TMac
Strengths: WR, WR, WR
Weaknesses: QB depth, Injury-prone RBs
TMac, as mentioned, is stocked at WR entering the year with an enviable fleet of pass catchers. Manningham and Holmes, two reserves at the moment, would start for most teams in my opinion while Simpson, Breaston, and Sims-Walker provide good solid upside as veteran WRs. But depth at QB and an injury at RB could prove to submarine this unit.
Last season, PBR went out and essentially ignored the back-up QB position. A tough start and an injury led to a couple of risky trades and, ultimately, a flame out. Romo’s injury was only a nail, not the coffin, but proved to underline the point that QB depth remains crucial to NFFL success. With Stafford backed up ably by Hill, TMac is at least OK there, but if Freeman struggles or gets injured there could be some concerns.
A similar premonition at RB- Turner and Mendenhall might have too much work to remains fully healthy while DeAngelo is in a train wreck spot in Carolina. Thomas, perhaps drafted to provide some depth, is looking unsteady early on in Miami. The top of the board looks good but the position is indeed thin.
TMac, it seems, could hold out through one crisis but might not withstand two. If he can ward off any bad luck early, TMac might find himself wheeling and dealing from his strength out wide to reinforce one of those five QB/RB slots. Provided these players hold up, TMac should remains right in the mix.
Malinn
Strengths: Well-balanced across the board, Gates
Weaknesses: Gates’ feet, QB2 unsteady
Romo, Romo…Malinn loves his Romo, and who can blame him? Romo was his man all along and Malinn got him at a cool $28 million, setting the stage for another wild run across all spectrums of the power rankings.
The big move, though, was the trade for MJD and Gates, an all-in type of proposition in my mind that relies equal parts on each returning to previously absurd levels of production while also staying healthy in the process. If both can do this, Malinn might stroll into the playoffs.
Otherwise, this could be a trade-laden struggle of a season. At QB, the Romo itch will surely be scratched, the resulting trade sure to bring in a RB and perhaps a lesser QB. Currently, McCoy and Kolb remain unproven commodities and there may be a need to upgrade there. Depth, overall, is good but not particularly inspiring. Is Greene up to the task, or perhaps, just up to hanging onto the football?
As usual, though, with Malinn, it comes down to this- why assess a team that will probably look radically different in a month?
Curran
Strengths: QB, WR solid
Weaknesses: RB could prove to be too weak to overcome
Curran’s team comes down to the most basic fantasy philosophy- get the runners. Or, in this case, don’t, and take a big risk.
Benson, BJGE, and LT represent the weakest trio in the league. It would be to no one’s surprise if Curran swung a deal, quickly, to add a runner or two. With Brady enticing and some talent at WR, this could be done, but Curran might be in trouble early.
Things are, at the minimum, trending up, though. Berrian and Smith are two strong waiver pickups, perhaps flying a bit under the radar with the insanity of the Collins and Brown bidding. Both could see significant time by the end of September. Grossman ‘won’ the QB job in Washington- perhaps Curran will look to cash in for some cheap RB help- while Hasselbeck will be running one of my sleeper teams this year, Tennessee. But until a RB breaks out- and not from jail- Curran’s team will likely be scrapping along the bottom of the Mustang Division.
DFlam
Strengths: Good blend of talent at RB and WR
Weakness: QB
Like Malinn, I hesitate to even pretend this team is a finished product. DFlam, it seems, is no longer interested in winning, but in wresting the title of ‘Trader’ from Malinn. He is off to a good start, although trading with Malinn will not really get him any closer to the clubhouse leader.
Still, it is hard to see DFlam swinging a big enough deal to settle his QB spot. Flacco, someone I am not particularly high on, and Cam Newton could prove to be early leaders for worst QB pairing. The wild card, obviously, is Cam’s running, but we’ll have to wait and see. Behind them, Garrard has more NFFL employers than NFL while others remain true-life backups.
A lot, it seems, will lean on Mike Williams, Aaron Hernandez, and Matt Forte reaching those unexpected heights they hit last year. If those three can hit 2010 levels, there is plenty to like here. But regression, that feared word, looks like a threat to both Tampa Bay and Chicago- could those two go down with their teams? Hernandez might get into Colston territory- a tight end playing WR- so his performance will be crucial.
DFlam will need to hold it together but can ill afford injury or ill-performance given his QB situation.
Tighe
Strengths: Top RB talent, Vick
Weaknesses: WR position is ailing
Team Vick is actually in decent shape given the signing of Vince Young. At the moment, though, Tighe’s squad is paying for the secrecy of Indianapolis and their medical staff as Kerry Collins is currently running with the first team.
And why not? Loaded or patchwork seems the philosophy here as Tighe is currently threatening to start two TE’s in week one, Daniels and Davis. With Julio Jones, the #2 pick, at WR2, the WR position is certainly not one to boast about.
However, that said, Tighe’s team does have an overall level of talent that is hard to match. Crabtree, Steve Smith, Spiller, Young- all reserves, all generally expected to be ineffective, but all massively talented players. Tighe’s team has plenty of breakout candidates and the hope must be for someone to step in and take some heat off Vick, Foster, and Gore- three of the NFFL’s trickiest injury concerns.
For now, the course must be to guide the ship through this tricky Peyton Waiting Game. If successful in navigating that stretch, Tighe could form himself into a dangerous contender as he waits to find the right opportunity to shore up his WR position. Until then, though, it is fingers cross at Tighe Headquarters with one eye on the injury wire.
Nemo
Strengths: Solid at QB, RB
Weaknesses: TE shaky, total lack of RB depth
Nemo has assembled an interesting squad that is high on value but low on balance. Four outright RBs meet eleven WRs, McCluster playing the role of misfit, while his two true backup QBs are a luxury in this league.
From the top, Nemo has a lineup strong on the traditional NFFL strongholds of QB and RB. A lot is riding on Moreno but with Fox in the fold at Denver he should see his skills better utilized. As a pure RB3, though, Moreno is a strong play to go with Hillis and CJ.
The QB position is in good hands with Big Ben and Cutler. Although unspectacular, the two will make Nemo very competitive each week. The question remains, what to do about this abundance of depth? Henne and Dalton are both lowly regarded but remain unchallenged at their spots. Could there be a deal brewing to shore up other areas?
The concerns at WR and TE knock Nemo back towards the middle of the pack. However, the upside at WR is significant and the potential for some breakouts are important to note. Branch and Driver, in particular, could be overlooked veteran contributors while Shipley and Little provide young blood at the position. Until then, though, the outlook here is competitive but no lock for the top spots.
Concannon
Strengths: Strong starters at QB, WR
Weaknesses: RB unproven, overall depth
Rating one’s own team is a tough task but as usual I’ll try to make an honest go of it. I see the Brees-Eli tandem as among the higher duos in the league with Tavaris magnitude 7.0 shaky on the backup scale. At WR, the trio of Fitzgerald, Austin, and Britt should be interesting enough to place in upper half of the league each week. Though talented, they should find themselves all in improved situations this season in comparison to last.
Concerns abound at RB with unproven players scrapping against potentially washing-up veterans. Beanie Wells moved into the starting lineup with the Williams injury, bumping Mathews, but who knows if Fred Jackson or Bradshaw can be counted on again? The TE spot is in good hands with Finley but he has shown a tendency to show up in the doctor’s office- only the rookie Kendricks is currently on the roster. I’m high on him but, like Tavaris, could do better.
Trading Brees is always an option- if things go south at RB, I’ll start making calls- but for now, I do feel like I have a solid starting lineup with the flexibility to make moves depending on how things go as the season progresses.
Power Rankings coming up later today…stay tuned.
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