Ho ho ho,
Apologies for the total flop that the 'three-part preview' turned out to be. In hindsight, would have just been better off not raising expectations. Lesson learned.
Here is where we stand going into the last two games- no MNF update tomorrow.
League Cup Semifinals
TMac 68, Curran 49- Nothing like a rivalry match in the money weeks and both Curran and TMac played strongly here. Ultimately, TMac got three solid matchups to go against Curran's Patriots laden one matchup and was able to overcome what I believe is the first cup lineup to include a tight end.
Tighe 41, DFlam 17 (Grant)- It comes down to tonight for Flam as he gets the double benefit of both rooting for Grant and rooting against Rodgers. Spiller was a huge star for Tighe who will surely be the underdog against TMac if he is able to advance.
NFFL Superbowl X
Lee 78, DFlam 74
Remaining Players
Sunday: Lee- Rodgers, DFlam- none
Monday: Lee- none, DFlam- White, Colston, Thomas
DFlam is all-in on the Saints tomorrow, hoping for another romp that causes the Falcons to take to the air early and often in a comeback attempt. Lee is surely dreading another Rodgers stinker. With Rodgers a likely bet to send Lee north of the 100 mark, it seems that Flam will need about ten points each- thirty total- to be in the mix.
Unless Rodgers falls on his face- this is going to be a very difficult night for both Lee and Flam. Good luck to you both.
Tim
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
NFFL Superbowl X Preview- Part I
NFFL Superbowl X Preview
Part I (12.21.2011): Rosters
Part II (12.22.2011): Trends and Numbers
Part III (12.23.2011): Thoughts and Commentary
It is NFFL Superbowl week, the tenth such week in league history, and a particularly special one. How do we know this number and why is it important?
Our league ‘tree’, so to speak, uses its own set of rings to mark age as we hurtle forward through the years. Up until last season, these rings involved Clinton Portis and his impressive NFL career as in our first league draft I was able to select him for what turned into a historic league campaign. Now ‘retired’ we turn to a new player to mark the seasons and it seems the most logical candidate is A.J. Green, another PBR draft choice who looks to be a sure-fire ten-year NFL player. Good luck, gentlemen, as we enter the Green Era.
But enough talk- this is the type of thing I’ll cover tomorrow. The positional matchups will not analyze themselves so, without further ado, part one of the three-part preview.
QB
Projected: Tebow, Newton vs. Rivers, Rodgers
DFlam strides forward into this game on the backs of his two-headed QB horse (Tam Newbow?), but Lee boasts perhaps the better duo in this contest. Rivers, red-hot of late, can be expected to score into the mid-twenties against a Detroit team that invites shootouts with its open style and lame pass defense while Rodgers is likely the league MVP- and he has been better in fantasy than in real life. His contest with Chicago should see the usual twenty-plus points.
Of course, DFlam has two budding young stars here and Newton is certainly going to enjoy facing off against the Tampa Bay ‘defense’. Tebow is the big question mark here on the road against Buffalo as unpredictable factors such as weather, play-calling, and Fitzpatrick could all conspire to hold down his numbers. We give the slight edge to Lee here on the back of Rivers’s hot form.
RB
Projected: McGahee, Jackson, Grant v McCoy, AP, Lynch
Flam has more option on the bench with Thomas and BGE while Lee is surely set with his trio. Again, Lee looks to be in strong shape here on the basis of both McCoy and AP facing relatively porous opposing fronts in Dallas and Washington, respectively. Lynch has been red-hot, hotter than Rivers, but he faces a Niners defense that has performed at historically unbending levels. Being the home team will surely help Lynch and it is in his favor that the Seahawks tend to run when inside the ten yard line. The x-factor is indeed Blount who faces a Carolina defense that has only one objective- get off the field as fast as possible so Cam Newton can score.
DFlam’s squad has a major Achilles heel and it is at the tailback area. McGahee is hurt, Jackson faces an angry and motivated Pittsburgh team looking to get back in the win column,and Grant’s best case scenario is about five points. My suspicion is that Thomas does find his way in here somehow against an Atlanta team that New Orleans should move the ball on but that is not nearly enough to balance the scales. At RB, a big up to Lee.
WR
Projected: White, Colston, Williams vs. Bryant, Calvin, Nicks
No mysteries from Lee- his team has no depth and it remains true to this moment. The line up selects itself and with these three he has the most ‘ball-winning’ trio of receivers in the league- guys who can go up and get any duck, Tebow out, or deflected ball for yards and touchdowns. Matchups tend to go out the door with these types but I do like Nicks to be motivated against the Jets after he cost PBR a potential spot here with a finely executed drop while Johnson is back in form after a trip to the bay area. Bryant is the question mark, a player who has seen his targets drop as various receivers have made themselves targets in Dallas.
DFlam is by no means in great shape here but it is likewise a situation where the team picks itself. Colston, remarkably, scored no touchdowns last week but his size is always a factor and he has played well of late. White is red-hot, playing as well as any WR in football, and a game in the Big Easy is always likely to see him score. Williams goes to Carolina with a struggling offense led by a potentially injured Freeman but he is almost certain to exceed last week’s total of zero points. Despite that, though, I see Lee here with a solid edge.
Tight End
Projected: Hernandez vs. Lewis
Lewis looks likely to step in for the banged up Ballard and here is the window for DFlam. Lewis is, like last year, a big stiff, but with Gabbert at the ‘controls’ his touchdown form has dropped and he looks likely to score about two to three points. Hernandez basically beat Tebow by himself last week and against Miami should be in line to continue scoring. A big edge here but the nature of the volume at TE will make it hard for DFlam to overcome Lee’s edge.
Final Thought
Two strong lineups arrived here via QB but with those positions nominally cancelling out the game comes down to the most critical of fantasy positions, RB. Lee’s edge here, to me, makes him the favorite and I do not think DFlam’s help form his ball catchers will help him overcome that hurdle.
Monday, December 19, 2011
MNF Update Week 15
Not much to say here- we could get into the details of the various contests but I would rather wait to get the Superbowl officially set and the cup semi-final draw officially done before doing that. Here are the scores with just Gore to play tonight:
Week 15
DFlam 129, Concannon 118
Lee 133, Curran 78 + Gore
League Cup Quarterfinals
DFlam 42 defeats Concannon 35, Malinn 30
T Mac 61 defeats Brett 36, Nemo 32
Curran 9, Lee 0
Tighe 49, Thompson 24
I'll aim to get the draw done by this time tomorrow so check in again at that time.
Week 15
DFlam 129, Concannon 118
Lee 133, Curran 78 + Gore
League Cup Quarterfinals
DFlam 42 defeats Concannon 35, Malinn 30
T Mac 61 defeats Brett 36, Nemo 32
Curran 9, Lee 0
Tighe 49, Thompson 24
I'll aim to get the draw done by this time tomorrow so check in again at that time.
Friday, December 16, 2011
NFFL Playoffs- Semi Final Preview
Let's see what I can do in ten minutes...
Concannon v DFlam
A massive start for DFlam as Roddy White continued his touchdown scoring form and tallied 25 points to take the lead. Austin meets Mike Williams on Saturday night to notch more early points.
Sunday sees the key showdowns as all remaining players are projected to take the field. Lacking a MNF preview here but the SNF game will see Mathews go against no one (Baltimore) so it could come down to the surging Charger. Obviously, the spotlight here will be on the QBs as old-school Concannon's drop-back guys in Brees and Eli will take on iPad DFlam's run-and-gun, baby boys Tebow and Newton.
However, the real battles should be decided out wide, making the White start massive. Neither team boasts much RB talent so the pass-catchers should project as point scorers. Hernandez v Finley is a big one at TE, Finley looking to get on track with Jennings out. Big names Fitz, Green, and Nelson look to post big games for Concannon.
Who is the key man? Well, it is two, and those men are Grant and Colston. Each possesses the dreaded 'cushion' effect, Colston to catch balls from Brees and Grant to poach scores for Concannon's two Packers. Big games from either should seal this for DFlam.
Projection: Ha.
Curran v Lee
This one could stack up nicely on MNF as Gore is the runner for Curran against an empty Lee set. Lee should get a big edge at QB as Palmer projects poorly for Curran. To be honest, it is going to be tough sledding for Curran minus a big game from the Patriots.
Luckily, Denver looks soft against the pass so it could be a big night in store for him. In that case, the key men for Lee would be Blount, who could have no carries if Tampa falls behind, and Lynch, a star performer of late who faces a Chicago defense that will quite interested in watching Tavaris throw.
Still, complex analysis goes out the door here- it is Brady or bust, as has been all year, and with it the end of Lee.
Projection: ...not jinxing the Pats, either. Sorry.
Concannon v DFlam
A massive start for DFlam as Roddy White continued his touchdown scoring form and tallied 25 points to take the lead. Austin meets Mike Williams on Saturday night to notch more early points.
Sunday sees the key showdowns as all remaining players are projected to take the field. Lacking a MNF preview here but the SNF game will see Mathews go against no one (Baltimore) so it could come down to the surging Charger. Obviously, the spotlight here will be on the QBs as old-school Concannon's drop-back guys in Brees and Eli will take on iPad DFlam's run-and-gun, baby boys Tebow and Newton.
However, the real battles should be decided out wide, making the White start massive. Neither team boasts much RB talent so the pass-catchers should project as point scorers. Hernandez v Finley is a big one at TE, Finley looking to get on track with Jennings out. Big names Fitz, Green, and Nelson look to post big games for Concannon.
Who is the key man? Well, it is two, and those men are Grant and Colston. Each possesses the dreaded 'cushion' effect, Colston to catch balls from Brees and Grant to poach scores for Concannon's two Packers. Big games from either should seal this for DFlam.
Projection: Ha.
Curran v Lee
This one could stack up nicely on MNF as Gore is the runner for Curran against an empty Lee set. Lee should get a big edge at QB as Palmer projects poorly for Curran. To be honest, it is going to be tough sledding for Curran minus a big game from the Patriots.
Luckily, Denver looks soft against the pass so it could be a big night in store for him. In that case, the key men for Lee would be Blount, who could have no carries if Tampa falls behind, and Lynch, a star performer of late who faces a Chicago defense that will quite interested in watching Tavaris throw.
Still, complex analysis goes out the door here- it is Brady or bust, as has been all year, and with it the end of Lee.
Projection: ...not jinxing the Pats, either. Sorry.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
NFFL Playoffs and League Cup Draw
NFFL Semifinal Round
Week 15
DFlam @ #1 Concannon
Lee @ Curran
NFFL League Cup Quarterfinals
Cup Holder: Tighe
Last year's runner up: Lee
Tighe v Thompson
Lee v Curran
TMac v Brett v Nemo
Concannon v Malinn v DFlam
Obviously, the top team in each match-up or trio advances to the semi-finals. Draw to be conducted early next Tuesday.
Commissioner
Appendix- how the draw was done
I asked Tighe, Lee, and Malinn to all order the numbers one through eight. Tighe, as holder, determined whether Lee handled the order of the teams and the matching of those teams. I used the total points standings for the 'base' order:
Concannon
Curran
DFlam
Malinn
TMac
Brett
Thompson
Nemo
Tighe led off with an odd number, which I had assigned to 'order' (O to O, so to speak). Lee's numbers were 6, 2, 4, 5, 3, 1, 7, 8. So I assigned myself 6, Curran 2, and so on, down to Nemo (8). This determined the new order of teams as they would be pulled out of the 'hat' (which Malinn's numbers would represent).
Brett
Curran
TMac
DFlam
Malinn
Concannon
Thompson
Nemo
Malinn's numbers returned 7, 2, 3, 1, 8, 6, 4, 5. Tighe, as holder, went against the first team out of the hat, so to speak, so he got 7, Thompson. Lee got #2 out of the hat, Curran. The next three of TMac, Brett, and Nemo went into the first of the menage-a-cups and the final three in the hat remained to face each other.
Next year I'll just use a hat.
-Tim
Week 15
DFlam @ #1 Concannon
Lee @ Curran
NFFL League Cup Quarterfinals
Cup Holder: Tighe
Last year's runner up: Lee
Tighe v Thompson
Lee v Curran
TMac v Brett v Nemo
Concannon v Malinn v DFlam
Obviously, the top team in each match-up or trio advances to the semi-finals. Draw to be conducted early next Tuesday.
Commissioner
Appendix- how the draw was done
I asked Tighe, Lee, and Malinn to all order the numbers one through eight. Tighe, as holder, determined whether Lee handled the order of the teams and the matching of those teams. I used the total points standings for the 'base' order:
Concannon
Curran
DFlam
Malinn
TMac
Brett
Thompson
Nemo
Tighe led off with an odd number, which I had assigned to 'order' (O to O, so to speak). Lee's numbers were 6, 2, 4, 5, 3, 1, 7, 8. So I assigned myself 6, Curran 2, and so on, down to Nemo (8). This determined the new order of teams as they would be pulled out of the 'hat' (which Malinn's numbers would represent).
Brett
Curran
TMac
DFlam
Malinn
Concannon
Thompson
Nemo
Malinn's numbers returned 7, 2, 3, 1, 8, 6, 4, 5. Tighe, as holder, went against the first team out of the hat, so to speak, so he got 7, Thompson. Lee got #2 out of the hat, Curran. The next three of TMac, Brett, and Nemo went into the first of the menage-a-cups and the final three in the hat remained to face each other.
Next year I'll just use a hat.
-Tim
Monday, December 12, 2011
MNF Week 14
Done and Dusted...
Curran 119, TMac 73
DFlam 90 (Jackson), Brett 63 (Bradford)
Tighe 70, Nemo 52
Three rather expected outcomes here as Tighe and Nemo played out the string while DFlam put in a solid effort to keep Brett at bay. Curran cruz-ed past TMac, securing his division and placing pressure on Concannon to win against Thompson to secure the league title.
Trophy #1
Concannon 112, Thompson 105
*Please skip ahead if you have no interest hearing me recount a tense SNF game for my PBR squad.
A very strong effort out of Thompson in his season finale almost saw a change at the top of the league. Threatening to turn himself into the proverbial 'last hurdle', Thompson was out in front by 29 points going into Sunday night. The late call to move Austin in ahead of Bradshaw proved crucial but, down 105-98 with five minutes to play, it seemed a photo finish was in store. Eli's touchdown to Ballard was upheld after a very tense review, leaving the tally at 105-105, but all looked lost for the commish when Romo could not, somehow, hit a wide open Austin that would have secured the game, the #1 seed, and the first trophy of the season. At this point, vanilla wafers were being consumed by nervous handfuls as the looming disaster of a TIE seemed very realistic.
Fortunately, Eli was able to pick up the required 22 yards to gain that critical, tie-breaking point. As it eventually turned out, Austin caught two more throws late on and made what was a very tight game into a final score that was a little more relaxing. Still, a tip of the cap to Thompson for a fine effort and adding to what is quietly turning into a history of rivalry games over the years.
MNF Game of the Week
Malinn 126 (Lloyd), Lee 111 (Lynch)
Lee will surely stumble into the playoffs on the back of this loss as he turns to Lynch for help against a less than stellar Rams run D. Lloyd might turn out to be just enough for Malinn here as, fittingly, the league's most heated rivalry comes all the way down to the last snap of the year.
This Week
-I choose my wild-card opponent by Wednesday, noon.
-League Cup draw tomorrow- hope to get the matchups out by 5pm.
Curran 119, TMac 73
DFlam 90 (Jackson), Brett 63 (Bradford)
Tighe 70, Nemo 52
Three rather expected outcomes here as Tighe and Nemo played out the string while DFlam put in a solid effort to keep Brett at bay. Curran cruz-ed past TMac, securing his division and placing pressure on Concannon to win against Thompson to secure the league title.
Trophy #1
Concannon 112, Thompson 105
*Please skip ahead if you have no interest hearing me recount a tense SNF game for my PBR squad.
A very strong effort out of Thompson in his season finale almost saw a change at the top of the league. Threatening to turn himself into the proverbial 'last hurdle', Thompson was out in front by 29 points going into Sunday night. The late call to move Austin in ahead of Bradshaw proved crucial but, down 105-98 with five minutes to play, it seemed a photo finish was in store. Eli's touchdown to Ballard was upheld after a very tense review, leaving the tally at 105-105, but all looked lost for the commish when Romo could not, somehow, hit a wide open Austin that would have secured the game, the #1 seed, and the first trophy of the season. At this point, vanilla wafers were being consumed by nervous handfuls as the looming disaster of a TIE seemed very realistic.
Fortunately, Eli was able to pick up the required 22 yards to gain that critical, tie-breaking point. As it eventually turned out, Austin caught two more throws late on and made what was a very tight game into a final score that was a little more relaxing. Still, a tip of the cap to Thompson for a fine effort and adding to what is quietly turning into a history of rivalry games over the years.
MNF Game of the Week
Malinn 126 (Lloyd), Lee 111 (Lynch)
Lee will surely stumble into the playoffs on the back of this loss as he turns to Lynch for help against a less than stellar Rams run D. Lloyd might turn out to be just enough for Malinn here as, fittingly, the league's most heated rivalry comes all the way down to the last snap of the year.
This Week
-I choose my wild-card opponent by Wednesday, noon.
-League Cup draw tomorrow- hope to get the matchups out by 5pm.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Blue Chip, Red Chip- 2012 Keeper Peek
No, not a politically-slanted look at our league...
A new twist here as I take away from one of my favorite features- Mike Lombardi's blue chip, red chip look at NFL.com from the preseason. If I recall correctly, he rates a blue-chip as a top five guy at a position and a red chip as a guy in the next five, then goes through each position and figures those guys out.
Here, I will not have such strict definitions- a blue chip is not a top-five guy, for example- but I will have a loose idea of a blue chip guy being a major keeper asset in next year and beyond while a red chip is a piece I see being potentially useful. Other distinctions- a 'potato chip' is a player I see as being overrated while a 'chocolate chip' is someone I see as being useful, not for immediate consumption, but in some season down the line. We'll try to limit the joke chips but I cannot really resist. On with it, then...
Note: please follow the link below for the current location of the keeper rosters:
http://www.freewebs.com/norwoodfantasyfootballleague/rosters.htm
Brett
Brett is a good place to start because he is first alphabetically in our league. He is also in a very interesting keeper position next year, one that I cannot recall anyone in this league being in. Basically, Brett has a lot of very good running backs- by my count, seven- and all hold keeper status. With teams in this league slanting toward QB of late, Brett's lack of major pieces at that position is interesting until you note the two first round choices and the stack of talent emerging from the NFL draft this coming April. It seems the long-term plan was to stack the RB position, buy into the QB-laden draft of 2012, and fill in the gaps with auction money. At this stage, it seems to be working very well. Let us take a look at the players:
Brett's chips
Blue-chip: 1st round pick, DeMarco Murray, Antonio Brown
Red-chip: Bradford, Fitzpatrick, Michael Bush, Best, Ben Tate, Ingram, Denarious Moore, 1st round pick (TMac)
Potato chip: James Starks, Jacoby Ford
Chocolate chip: Jacquizz Rodgers
Aiming at the bottom four, Brett stands a good chance of landing at least a top-five slot in this coming draft. With the talent available, it seems a very good chance to land a blue-chip guy and I think each of the four picks associated with the bottom four should earn that status. Murray has been a major piece of Dallas's surge, not in just his talent, but in his ability to bring stability and consistency to the Romo-coaster. I like him to continue as a top player in years two and three. Brown, although his production may be lacking, is a big-time guy in my mind with his target rate, the fading of Hines Ward, Big Ben, and Pittsburgh's trend away from a slumping running game.
The red chip guys could cause some controversy. Certainly, some of these are talented enough to be blue in the face about their red distinction. But, the salaries of the QB duo combined with their one year of keeper time make them less than perfect assets and I am unsold on the merits of the backs in timeshares. TMac's pick, potentially solid, is no sure thing in the lottery. One swing guy is Michael Bush- if he leaves, he could be blue- but I doubt Oakland lets him go given how brittle McFadden has been.
I label Ford a potato chip because Oakland's pass offense has really been hard to peg of late. Heyward-Bey, Moore, and Murphy have all outshone him over the past two years for stretches and I wonder if Ford simply becomes more weapon than reliable pass catcher. I think he is one of the more polarizing guys in the league- some really think highly of him, others that he is a specialist type- and I fall into the latter. Starks is in a committee that is splitting a McDonald's size apple pie, not those nice big ones you see at Thanksgiving, and I am skeptical that he ever gets the work to really contribute in a fantasy offense.
Jacquizz Rodgers is a tiny, powder-keg guy who is a symbol of the explosive offensive future envisioned in Atlanta. As Turner fades, a new power back will come in who the coaches feel less indebted to give the ball to and this alone should give Rodgers more chances to become a Sproles-type.
Concannon
PBR had a nice bounce back season after the commissioner's first losing season in league history. Opting to hold onto many trade pieces, PBR remains positioned to compete with a strong base of talent in 2012.
Blue-chip: A.J Green, Ryan Mathews
Red-chip: Ponder, Beanie Wells, Fred Jackson, Kendall Hunter, Jordy Nelson, Britt, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Ahmad Bradshaw
Chocolate chip: Ryan Mallet, Lance Kendricks
Green and Mathews will form the base for what should be a promising, similar, and slightly more expensive 2012 PBR roster. Both players are elite talents who have shone in 2011 but Green is certainly the more consistent and enticing player. With no clear complement at RB and a lot of areas to rebuild in San Diego, Mathews should get a shot to take a full load of work in 2012, raising my expectation to a blue level.
The choice of Ponder in the middle of round two could be a franchise maker for PBR as he looks set to ascend to QB2 status in 2012. A strong draft was rounded off by Hunter, likely a backup once again in SF but a player who has shone in limited action and is being described as a Brian Westbrook level prospect. Given the way RBs fall off and Gore's injury history, there could be stardom ahead for Hunter in 2012.
The returning vets are the questions. At RB, three solid guys join Mathews and all are no sure things. Of the three, I see Fred Jackson as a big contributor but he has only one year of keeper status left and will command a double-digit salary. Plus, at 30, his ability to return from a first major injury will be a factor. Beanie Wells, in incredible shape this year, should hold off the challenge of Ryan Williams given the latter's difficult injury and general history of rookie (or first-year) runners failing to beat out incumbents in year one. Bradshaw, then, is the potato, an oft-injured back with a big salary who may or may not continue to produce as he once has. Nelson, Britt, and the first rounder should all add to the stash of talent here (but Britt's injury status must be monitored- a potential potato chip due to his knee).
Taken in the 2011 draft, the success of Mallet and Kendricks could make the haul one of the best in league history. Mallet is obviously a wait and see, a promising arm who is now sitting in for a degree from Brady College at the University of Belichick, while Kendricks is a talent that got lost in a massively disappointing Rams season.
Curran
Curran will retain a limited but solid core of keeper talent after a couple of misses in 2011 failed to restock a cupboard that was depleted to make a 2010 playoff push.
Blue chip: Gronk!
Red chip: Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Titus Young, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Wes Welker
Chocolate chip: Hoyer
Gronkowski is currently on a hot streak of scoring and is perhaps among the top three tight ends in the league. He will be a massive bargain in a landscape where top tight ends are simply very hard to find.
In the NFFL, any cheap QB is a plus and Sanchez will be right on the edge. With the Jets struggling to run, his passing stats are no fluke and I think he will retain some value in 2012. Palmer, provided the Raiders do not trade three firsts for Peyton Manning, should return as a starter and is likely to remain at the $0 level thanks to a late start. Titus Young was a great draft choice for Curran and could be a big part of the emerging Detroit offense in his second season.
Wes Welker is no potato but his status reflects what will be a close call salary wise. I could see a couple dollars of savings but he will be unlikely to reflect a major keeper value. The other Patriot, Hoyer, could prove immense. Hoyer is well regarded league-wide and could end up a starter via trade if a team is willing to tempt the Pats. The key may be how comfortable the team is with Mallet as the back-up.
DFlam
DFlam has made a lot of noise in 2011 thanks to the surprise emergence of Cam Newton and he will look to ride that horse into 2012 and beyond. His keepers are QB-heavy and that is a good place to be for any team but there is plenty of work to be done to stack the other positions with talented young players for future seasons.
Blue chip: Newton
Red chip: Tebow, Hernandez, Baldwin
Potato chip: Mike Williams
Chocolate chip: Ricky Stanzi, Colin Kaepernick
Newton, as mentioned, is a big, big piece and likely the top keeper entering 2012. Fellow QB Tebow joins him a a red thanks to a total lack of security in his job but if he gets to play he will produce in the NFFL. Hernandez is a great complement to Gronk but is still able to produce at a starter-worthy level as a fantasy TE. Baldwin, in year two, should see more work in KC and his immense talent could see him as a major breakout guy in 2012. On the flip side, Williams of Tampa is a guy who is going to be very polarizing next summer- at this stage, I see him flopping, his rookie season a potential mirage brought on by circumstance and scheduling.
The two rookie QBs are interesting cases. Kaepernick is the talent, the second round pick that DFlam traded up for, while Stanzi is less exciting but seems to be the worker-type that succeeds in the NFL.
One interesting thing to consider here is the staff of each team. In KC, an experienced Pioli knows how to stockpile players and has the staff in place that will give Stanzi a shot if he deserves it. On the other side, the SF front office has enjoyed a strong start but one thing about rookie coaches is that their philosophy on drafting is still developing and it makes one wonder if he would take a new QB this season if given that chance. The situations bear watching but DFlam could have two solid guys to plug in as Tebow and Newton move out of keeper eligibility.
Lee
Lee has enjoyed his fair share of criticism but of late his drafting has been of a high caliber. Despite a strong 2011 team, Lee will have a number of impressive prospects to build his 2012 team around.
Blue chip: Shady McCoy
Red chip: Blount, Lynch, Ridley, Nicks, Dez Bryant, Vincent Brown
Potato chip: Blaine Gabbert
Chocolate chip: Matt Flynn
McCoy leads the line here as a big-time producer who looks durable and matchup proof- one of 2012's top keepers and a potential top-five player. Nicks is a notch below, his injury record and price working against his blue chip status, but he will be solid. Blount, Lynch, and Bryant all should be back in 2012 with solid production. A strong 2012 draft brought Ridley, a likely split-time guy in NE, and Brown, a promising WR in SD, and each should contribute at various times next year as they continue slow but promising development in strong offenses.
His other draft choice, Blaine Gabbert, has the playing time but it seems that he lacks the play-making ability and Jacksonville lacks the explosive talent around him to help make him a true fantasy producer. He will return but in no more a role than emergency/back-up QB with little promise to advance beyond that. On the other hand, Flynn has been a limited but efficient producer for GB and is a candidate to start somewhere, and produce, in the next three years.
Malinn
Malinn has famously drafted the best rookie class in league history but as the talent from that group dries up he looks at a keeper roster that is beginning to look bare at key QB and RB areas. There is more talent at the pass-catching positions and from there Malinn will begin assembling what he hopes is another strong team in 2012.
Blue chip: Jimmy Graham
Red chip: Greene, Kolb, Wallace, Torrey Smith, Decker, LeShoure, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Colt McCoy
Chocolate chip: Arrelious Benn
Graham is, in my mind, fantasy football's top TE and should be a fixture here for the next two seasons. Joining him will be Greene, perhaps no more than a W/R flex but a strong and inexpensive one at that. Kolb, Decker, and Smith should all continue to grow in their second seasons as starters while Mike Wallace, although not cheap, is an elite performer who will form the foundation of the passing offense. LeShoure was an injured player when taken late in the second round and only time will tell if he can recover to contribute in 2012. The good news is that the Lions seems to be crying out for a power back (and perhaps a detention or two) so there are points on the board if the player is healthy enough to take them.
The sad truth about McCoy is that, while among my favorite picks from last year's draft, he has shown little growth in a second season where the Browns really needed him to step up in order to compete. Given the general state of turmoil that the Browns are in, they are a strong candidate to find a new QB to compete with the Colt in 2012.
Benn, on the other hand, could find himself as a sneaky sleeper in 2012. Mike Williams has been up and down and perhaps a second option on the other side will be what is needed to return that offense to 2010 levels. He has the ability and I like his chances in 2012.
Nemo
Chris Johnson's decision to report for the 2011 season about twelve minutes after Thanksgiving will leave a sour aftertaste for what has been a bitter season for Nemo but there are reasons for optimism as we cast an eye on 2012.
Blue chip: 1st round pick, Dalton
Red chip: Big Ben, Hardesty, Greg Little, Randle Cobb
Potato chip: Dexter McCluster
Chocolate chip: Jordan Shipley
Nemo looks to have a rebuilding job ahead but the foundation will be very strong with one of the league's top keepers in Dalton. The Big Red Machine has rifled his way through a fine rookie season and should be a viable player in the many years ahead. The first-round choice, as was the case for Brett, projects to be high enough for Nemo to land another impact player. Given his draft history, one would be wise to bet on another top arm to take his place alongside Dalton.
The middle of the roster does not have the quantity of others seen so far. Roethlisberger should be a borderline value as a keeper but has likely moved into the $20-$25 range with his season and a decreasing return from the run game. Hardesty is likely to be at least part of a time-share with Hillis focused solely on green(er) pastures and another year removed from his injury should see him return with more of his old explosiveness. Little was a fine second round selection and has separated himself from his competition in the Browns receiving corps while Cobb has been explosive but little-utilized in his rookie year. If Jones and/or Driver head for the exit, Cobb, who has been spotted in one-receiver sets at various points this year, is the man in line to pick up major work as a third receiver.
McCluster is an exciting, electrifying talent but his return so far in two seasons has been iffy at best. He does not seem to be a running back but has yet to figure out how to best utilize his own skills from a receiver position. He could be a sleeper-type next year but KC is not exactly the high-flying type of offense that tends to make fantasy factors of these types of players.
Shipley could be part of a strong passing game in Cincinnati and with his fellow pass catchers failing to consistently establish themselves across from Green there could be a chance for Shipley to return from injury and win the #2 role.
Thompson
After a fairytale run to the Superbowl Championship, Thompson's squad took a major tumble and has been out of the running for quite a few weeks. 2011 gave way to 2012 right around the same time Jamaal Charles's knee went out in week two and with the superstar ex-Longhorn now officially ineligible as a keeper it is the signal of a new era in the 'cellar'.
Blue-chip: 1st round pick
Red chip: 1st round pick (DFlam), Sproles, Locker, Earl Bennett
Potato chip: Toby Gerhart
Chocolate chip: Early Doucet
The only major asset here for next season is the first round pick. In that sense, Thompson has more riding on the lottery than any team in this draft. The positive is that he picked up an extra pick from DFlam via trade and this should help him restock what is quickly turning from a 'Darren' cupboard to a barren one- as mentioned, Charles is done, but so are the talented McFadden and emerging Percy Harvin.
Sproles is not my type of player- I may have made this clear at various points- but at some level production cannot be argued with and the way he is utilized in New Orleans makes him the safest option in a high-octane unit. He should continue to provide fine W/R value next season. Locker, the Titans QB, has the look of a 'chocolate chip' but I see him likely to take over in the off-season as Hasselbeck completes his tutoring duties. He should provide steady fill-in performances on the cheap for Thompson in 2012 with backdoor QB2 potential. Bennett may be a bit of a stretch but he provided a number of solid outings prior to Cutler's injury. Look for his role to expand, both here and in Chicago, as he develops into a solid WR2 option.
Gerhart has looked half-decent in a step-in role of late but his value is minimized here on a team that generally avoids spending at the very top of the auction. Gerhart is not the type of backup who is guaranteed 80-90% of the starter's production and as he accumulates points this year he may be pushing his own salary beyond a reasonable ($0) level. Wait and see, of course, but I do not see him making a major impact in 2012.
Doucet is probably the biggest stretch here but he does have the service time in the league for a jump to not be entirely a surprise. He is the #2 option in the desert and if the quarterback play jumps from 'rubbish' to 'mildly erratic' it could see Doucet become a decent fill-in type in 2012.
Tighe
A promising season went up in flames quickly as injuries piled neck-deep around this squad before Tighe pulled the plug with the Foster trade. What seemed a three-year window with Vick is now approaching the climactic final chapter but there are pieces in place to hint at another run for an elusive Superbowl.
Blue chip: 1st round pick, Vick, V-Jax
Red chip: 1st round pick (Lee), Daniel Thomas, Spiller, Crabtree, Manningham, Julio Jones, Ryan Williams
Potato chip: Steve Smith
Chocolate chip: Emmanuel Sanders, Demariyous Thomas
Tighe will likely hold a strong top pick and should top it off with whatever rubbish Lee has sent his way. Vick and Jackson, two veteran players, are on the books at minimal prices and will be strong contributors, each a top-five candidate at his own position.
The middle of the roster is filled with solid flex-type options. Thomas and Spiller will face stiff competition for work in their respective backfields but each has shown sparks in 2011 that hint at bright futures. Crabtree, Manningham, and Jones should provide at least a WR3 from among them with Jones the most likely candidate to move comfortably into WR2 territory. The key man may be Smith, a bit of a surprise for his production this year but slipping back into the pack as Cam Newton prioritizes his own selfish needs over those of his receivers. An improved Cam in year two could see Smith continue a resurgence but my bet is that this team remains ground-oriented.
The Williams injury situation was very ugly this summer and while backs have returned to contribute it may be a tough road for him. He could end up a factor in 2013 as he spends a year simply learning to trust his own movement on the field again.
The two wild-cards are Sanders and Thomas. Each has the talent to contribute but Sanders may have missed his boat in 2011 with his injuries allowing Brown to step up while Thomas may not have a prayer of seeing a good pass reach his gifted hands anytime soon. However, any hints of improvement for these players could position Tighe to go entirely 'home-grown' at WR and allow him to spend big at RB and QB2 to shore up the roster.
TMac
The Mac Attack battled valiantly but ultimately it seems the team will fall a little short in the playoff chase. Plenty of talent is on the books, however, as TMac remains positioned to make another strong charge in 2012.
Blue chip: Stafford, Foster
Red chip: Helu, Maclin, Holmes, Simpson, Moore
Potato chip: Freeman
Chocolate chip: Shane Vereen
The duo of Stafford and Foster will surely return in 2012 to lead the charge. Each answered questions of durability and consistency in 2011 to position themselves as elite players in fantasy and TMac will get each for one more cut-rate season.
The solid keeper batch starts with Helu, TMac's first-round choice that has seen a more steady workload lately. Shanahan has his own ridiculous criteria for running backs but it seems to me that Helu gains big yardage every time he touches the ball and this makes him a top sleeper for 2012. The quartet of veteran receivers may not all return but each is capable of making a fine WR2 if things fall their way. Simpson is an interesting sleeper while Moore may need someone to make way in New Orleans to ensure more steady production.
The potato chip here is Freeman, a player who may not have regressed so much as has been a victim of a brutal schedule but could still end up being a borderline keeper value at a projected $13-$17 range. TMac could simply opt to keep the rights in a price-control attempt but the temptation to lock down a reliable starting QB is likely to prove too much.
Vereen has looked sharp in limited touches so far and as we all know here a productive Patriot has a little more value than other players in this league. With BGE and the Woodstick more or less having less than secure roles it could be a big push from Vereen that relegates them to the scrap heap. He will make a fine sleeper in year two.
A new twist here as I take away from one of my favorite features- Mike Lombardi's blue chip, red chip look at NFL.com from the preseason. If I recall correctly, he rates a blue-chip as a top five guy at a position and a red chip as a guy in the next five, then goes through each position and figures those guys out.
Here, I will not have such strict definitions- a blue chip is not a top-five guy, for example- but I will have a loose idea of a blue chip guy being a major keeper asset in next year and beyond while a red chip is a piece I see being potentially useful. Other distinctions- a 'potato chip' is a player I see as being overrated while a 'chocolate chip' is someone I see as being useful, not for immediate consumption, but in some season down the line. We'll try to limit the joke chips but I cannot really resist. On with it, then...
Note: please follow the link below for the current location of the keeper rosters:
http://www.freewebs.com/norwoodfantasyfootballleague/rosters.htm
Brett
Brett is a good place to start because he is first alphabetically in our league. He is also in a very interesting keeper position next year, one that I cannot recall anyone in this league being in. Basically, Brett has a lot of very good running backs- by my count, seven- and all hold keeper status. With teams in this league slanting toward QB of late, Brett's lack of major pieces at that position is interesting until you note the two first round choices and the stack of talent emerging from the NFL draft this coming April. It seems the long-term plan was to stack the RB position, buy into the QB-laden draft of 2012, and fill in the gaps with auction money. At this stage, it seems to be working very well. Let us take a look at the players:
Brett's chips
Blue-chip: 1st round pick, DeMarco Murray, Antonio Brown
Red-chip: Bradford, Fitzpatrick, Michael Bush, Best, Ben Tate, Ingram, Denarious Moore, 1st round pick (TMac)
Potato chip: James Starks, Jacoby Ford
Chocolate chip: Jacquizz Rodgers
Aiming at the bottom four, Brett stands a good chance of landing at least a top-five slot in this coming draft. With the talent available, it seems a very good chance to land a blue-chip guy and I think each of the four picks associated with the bottom four should earn that status. Murray has been a major piece of Dallas's surge, not in just his talent, but in his ability to bring stability and consistency to the Romo-coaster. I like him to continue as a top player in years two and three. Brown, although his production may be lacking, is a big-time guy in my mind with his target rate, the fading of Hines Ward, Big Ben, and Pittsburgh's trend away from a slumping running game.
The red chip guys could cause some controversy. Certainly, some of these are talented enough to be blue in the face about their red distinction. But, the salaries of the QB duo combined with their one year of keeper time make them less than perfect assets and I am unsold on the merits of the backs in timeshares. TMac's pick, potentially solid, is no sure thing in the lottery. One swing guy is Michael Bush- if he leaves, he could be blue- but I doubt Oakland lets him go given how brittle McFadden has been.
I label Ford a potato chip because Oakland's pass offense has really been hard to peg of late. Heyward-Bey, Moore, and Murphy have all outshone him over the past two years for stretches and I wonder if Ford simply becomes more weapon than reliable pass catcher. I think he is one of the more polarizing guys in the league- some really think highly of him, others that he is a specialist type- and I fall into the latter. Starks is in a committee that is splitting a McDonald's size apple pie, not those nice big ones you see at Thanksgiving, and I am skeptical that he ever gets the work to really contribute in a fantasy offense.
Jacquizz Rodgers is a tiny, powder-keg guy who is a symbol of the explosive offensive future envisioned in Atlanta. As Turner fades, a new power back will come in who the coaches feel less indebted to give the ball to and this alone should give Rodgers more chances to become a Sproles-type.
Concannon
PBR had a nice bounce back season after the commissioner's first losing season in league history. Opting to hold onto many trade pieces, PBR remains positioned to compete with a strong base of talent in 2012.
Blue-chip: A.J Green, Ryan Mathews
Red-chip: Ponder, Beanie Wells, Fred Jackson, Kendall Hunter, Jordy Nelson, Britt, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Ahmad Bradshaw
Chocolate chip: Ryan Mallet, Lance Kendricks
Green and Mathews will form the base for what should be a promising, similar, and slightly more expensive 2012 PBR roster. Both players are elite talents who have shone in 2011 but Green is certainly the more consistent and enticing player. With no clear complement at RB and a lot of areas to rebuild in San Diego, Mathews should get a shot to take a full load of work in 2012, raising my expectation to a blue level.
The choice of Ponder in the middle of round two could be a franchise maker for PBR as he looks set to ascend to QB2 status in 2012. A strong draft was rounded off by Hunter, likely a backup once again in SF but a player who has shone in limited action and is being described as a Brian Westbrook level prospect. Given the way RBs fall off and Gore's injury history, there could be stardom ahead for Hunter in 2012.
The returning vets are the questions. At RB, three solid guys join Mathews and all are no sure things. Of the three, I see Fred Jackson as a big contributor but he has only one year of keeper status left and will command a double-digit salary. Plus, at 30, his ability to return from a first major injury will be a factor. Beanie Wells, in incredible shape this year, should hold off the challenge of Ryan Williams given the latter's difficult injury and general history of rookie (or first-year) runners failing to beat out incumbents in year one. Bradshaw, then, is the potato, an oft-injured back with a big salary who may or may not continue to produce as he once has. Nelson, Britt, and the first rounder should all add to the stash of talent here (but Britt's injury status must be monitored- a potential potato chip due to his knee).
Taken in the 2011 draft, the success of Mallet and Kendricks could make the haul one of the best in league history. Mallet is obviously a wait and see, a promising arm who is now sitting in for a degree from Brady College at the University of Belichick, while Kendricks is a talent that got lost in a massively disappointing Rams season.
Curran
Curran will retain a limited but solid core of keeper talent after a couple of misses in 2011 failed to restock a cupboard that was depleted to make a 2010 playoff push.
Blue chip: Gronk!
Red chip: Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Titus Young, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Wes Welker
Chocolate chip: Hoyer
Gronkowski is currently on a hot streak of scoring and is perhaps among the top three tight ends in the league. He will be a massive bargain in a landscape where top tight ends are simply very hard to find.
In the NFFL, any cheap QB is a plus and Sanchez will be right on the edge. With the Jets struggling to run, his passing stats are no fluke and I think he will retain some value in 2012. Palmer, provided the Raiders do not trade three firsts for Peyton Manning, should return as a starter and is likely to remain at the $0 level thanks to a late start. Titus Young was a great draft choice for Curran and could be a big part of the emerging Detroit offense in his second season.
Wes Welker is no potato but his status reflects what will be a close call salary wise. I could see a couple dollars of savings but he will be unlikely to reflect a major keeper value. The other Patriot, Hoyer, could prove immense. Hoyer is well regarded league-wide and could end up a starter via trade if a team is willing to tempt the Pats. The key may be how comfortable the team is with Mallet as the back-up.
DFlam
DFlam has made a lot of noise in 2011 thanks to the surprise emergence of Cam Newton and he will look to ride that horse into 2012 and beyond. His keepers are QB-heavy and that is a good place to be for any team but there is plenty of work to be done to stack the other positions with talented young players for future seasons.
Blue chip: Newton
Red chip: Tebow, Hernandez, Baldwin
Potato chip: Mike Williams
Chocolate chip: Ricky Stanzi, Colin Kaepernick
Newton, as mentioned, is a big, big piece and likely the top keeper entering 2012. Fellow QB Tebow joins him a a red thanks to a total lack of security in his job but if he gets to play he will produce in the NFFL. Hernandez is a great complement to Gronk but is still able to produce at a starter-worthy level as a fantasy TE. Baldwin, in year two, should see more work in KC and his immense talent could see him as a major breakout guy in 2012. On the flip side, Williams of Tampa is a guy who is going to be very polarizing next summer- at this stage, I see him flopping, his rookie season a potential mirage brought on by circumstance and scheduling.
The two rookie QBs are interesting cases. Kaepernick is the talent, the second round pick that DFlam traded up for, while Stanzi is less exciting but seems to be the worker-type that succeeds in the NFL.
One interesting thing to consider here is the staff of each team. In KC, an experienced Pioli knows how to stockpile players and has the staff in place that will give Stanzi a shot if he deserves it. On the other side, the SF front office has enjoyed a strong start but one thing about rookie coaches is that their philosophy on drafting is still developing and it makes one wonder if he would take a new QB this season if given that chance. The situations bear watching but DFlam could have two solid guys to plug in as Tebow and Newton move out of keeper eligibility.
Lee
Lee has enjoyed his fair share of criticism but of late his drafting has been of a high caliber. Despite a strong 2011 team, Lee will have a number of impressive prospects to build his 2012 team around.
Blue chip: Shady McCoy
Red chip: Blount, Lynch, Ridley, Nicks, Dez Bryant, Vincent Brown
Potato chip: Blaine Gabbert
Chocolate chip: Matt Flynn
McCoy leads the line here as a big-time producer who looks durable and matchup proof- one of 2012's top keepers and a potential top-five player. Nicks is a notch below, his injury record and price working against his blue chip status, but he will be solid. Blount, Lynch, and Bryant all should be back in 2012 with solid production. A strong 2012 draft brought Ridley, a likely split-time guy in NE, and Brown, a promising WR in SD, and each should contribute at various times next year as they continue slow but promising development in strong offenses.
His other draft choice, Blaine Gabbert, has the playing time but it seems that he lacks the play-making ability and Jacksonville lacks the explosive talent around him to help make him a true fantasy producer. He will return but in no more a role than emergency/back-up QB with little promise to advance beyond that. On the other hand, Flynn has been a limited but efficient producer for GB and is a candidate to start somewhere, and produce, in the next three years.
Malinn
Malinn has famously drafted the best rookie class in league history but as the talent from that group dries up he looks at a keeper roster that is beginning to look bare at key QB and RB areas. There is more talent at the pass-catching positions and from there Malinn will begin assembling what he hopes is another strong team in 2012.
Blue chip: Jimmy Graham
Red chip: Greene, Kolb, Wallace, Torrey Smith, Decker, LeShoure, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Colt McCoy
Chocolate chip: Arrelious Benn
Graham is, in my mind, fantasy football's top TE and should be a fixture here for the next two seasons. Joining him will be Greene, perhaps no more than a W/R flex but a strong and inexpensive one at that. Kolb, Decker, and Smith should all continue to grow in their second seasons as starters while Mike Wallace, although not cheap, is an elite performer who will form the foundation of the passing offense. LeShoure was an injured player when taken late in the second round and only time will tell if he can recover to contribute in 2012. The good news is that the Lions seems to be crying out for a power back (and perhaps a detention or two) so there are points on the board if the player is healthy enough to take them.
The sad truth about McCoy is that, while among my favorite picks from last year's draft, he has shown little growth in a second season where the Browns really needed him to step up in order to compete. Given the general state of turmoil that the Browns are in, they are a strong candidate to find a new QB to compete with the Colt in 2012.
Benn, on the other hand, could find himself as a sneaky sleeper in 2012. Mike Williams has been up and down and perhaps a second option on the other side will be what is needed to return that offense to 2010 levels. He has the ability and I like his chances in 2012.
Nemo
Chris Johnson's decision to report for the 2011 season about twelve minutes after Thanksgiving will leave a sour aftertaste for what has been a bitter season for Nemo but there are reasons for optimism as we cast an eye on 2012.
Blue chip: 1st round pick, Dalton
Red chip: Big Ben, Hardesty, Greg Little, Randle Cobb
Potato chip: Dexter McCluster
Chocolate chip: Jordan Shipley
Nemo looks to have a rebuilding job ahead but the foundation will be very strong with one of the league's top keepers in Dalton. The Big Red Machine has rifled his way through a fine rookie season and should be a viable player in the many years ahead. The first-round choice, as was the case for Brett, projects to be high enough for Nemo to land another impact player. Given his draft history, one would be wise to bet on another top arm to take his place alongside Dalton.
The middle of the roster does not have the quantity of others seen so far. Roethlisberger should be a borderline value as a keeper but has likely moved into the $20-$25 range with his season and a decreasing return from the run game. Hardesty is likely to be at least part of a time-share with Hillis focused solely on green(er) pastures and another year removed from his injury should see him return with more of his old explosiveness. Little was a fine second round selection and has separated himself from his competition in the Browns receiving corps while Cobb has been explosive but little-utilized in his rookie year. If Jones and/or Driver head for the exit, Cobb, who has been spotted in one-receiver sets at various points this year, is the man in line to pick up major work as a third receiver.
McCluster is an exciting, electrifying talent but his return so far in two seasons has been iffy at best. He does not seem to be a running back but has yet to figure out how to best utilize his own skills from a receiver position. He could be a sleeper-type next year but KC is not exactly the high-flying type of offense that tends to make fantasy factors of these types of players.
Shipley could be part of a strong passing game in Cincinnati and with his fellow pass catchers failing to consistently establish themselves across from Green there could be a chance for Shipley to return from injury and win the #2 role.
Thompson
After a fairytale run to the Superbowl Championship, Thompson's squad took a major tumble and has been out of the running for quite a few weeks. 2011 gave way to 2012 right around the same time Jamaal Charles's knee went out in week two and with the superstar ex-Longhorn now officially ineligible as a keeper it is the signal of a new era in the 'cellar'.
Blue-chip: 1st round pick
Red chip: 1st round pick (DFlam), Sproles, Locker, Earl Bennett
Potato chip: Toby Gerhart
Chocolate chip: Early Doucet
The only major asset here for next season is the first round pick. In that sense, Thompson has more riding on the lottery than any team in this draft. The positive is that he picked up an extra pick from DFlam via trade and this should help him restock what is quickly turning from a 'Darren' cupboard to a barren one- as mentioned, Charles is done, but so are the talented McFadden and emerging Percy Harvin.
Sproles is not my type of player- I may have made this clear at various points- but at some level production cannot be argued with and the way he is utilized in New Orleans makes him the safest option in a high-octane unit. He should continue to provide fine W/R value next season. Locker, the Titans QB, has the look of a 'chocolate chip' but I see him likely to take over in the off-season as Hasselbeck completes his tutoring duties. He should provide steady fill-in performances on the cheap for Thompson in 2012 with backdoor QB2 potential. Bennett may be a bit of a stretch but he provided a number of solid outings prior to Cutler's injury. Look for his role to expand, both here and in Chicago, as he develops into a solid WR2 option.
Gerhart has looked half-decent in a step-in role of late but his value is minimized here on a team that generally avoids spending at the very top of the auction. Gerhart is not the type of backup who is guaranteed 80-90% of the starter's production and as he accumulates points this year he may be pushing his own salary beyond a reasonable ($0) level. Wait and see, of course, but I do not see him making a major impact in 2012.
Doucet is probably the biggest stretch here but he does have the service time in the league for a jump to not be entirely a surprise. He is the #2 option in the desert and if the quarterback play jumps from 'rubbish' to 'mildly erratic' it could see Doucet become a decent fill-in type in 2012.
Tighe
A promising season went up in flames quickly as injuries piled neck-deep around this squad before Tighe pulled the plug with the Foster trade. What seemed a three-year window with Vick is now approaching the climactic final chapter but there are pieces in place to hint at another run for an elusive Superbowl.
Blue chip: 1st round pick, Vick, V-Jax
Red chip: 1st round pick (Lee), Daniel Thomas, Spiller, Crabtree, Manningham, Julio Jones, Ryan Williams
Potato chip: Steve Smith
Chocolate chip: Emmanuel Sanders, Demariyous Thomas
Tighe will likely hold a strong top pick and should top it off with whatever rubbish Lee has sent his way. Vick and Jackson, two veteran players, are on the books at minimal prices and will be strong contributors, each a top-five candidate at his own position.
The middle of the roster is filled with solid flex-type options. Thomas and Spiller will face stiff competition for work in their respective backfields but each has shown sparks in 2011 that hint at bright futures. Crabtree, Manningham, and Jones should provide at least a WR3 from among them with Jones the most likely candidate to move comfortably into WR2 territory. The key man may be Smith, a bit of a surprise for his production this year but slipping back into the pack as Cam Newton prioritizes his own selfish needs over those of his receivers. An improved Cam in year two could see Smith continue a resurgence but my bet is that this team remains ground-oriented.
The Williams injury situation was very ugly this summer and while backs have returned to contribute it may be a tough road for him. He could end up a factor in 2013 as he spends a year simply learning to trust his own movement on the field again.
The two wild-cards are Sanders and Thomas. Each has the talent to contribute but Sanders may have missed his boat in 2011 with his injuries allowing Brown to step up while Thomas may not have a prayer of seeing a good pass reach his gifted hands anytime soon. However, any hints of improvement for these players could position Tighe to go entirely 'home-grown' at WR and allow him to spend big at RB and QB2 to shore up the roster.
TMac
The Mac Attack battled valiantly but ultimately it seems the team will fall a little short in the playoff chase. Plenty of talent is on the books, however, as TMac remains positioned to make another strong charge in 2012.
Blue chip: Stafford, Foster
Red chip: Helu, Maclin, Holmes, Simpson, Moore
Potato chip: Freeman
Chocolate chip: Shane Vereen
The duo of Stafford and Foster will surely return in 2012 to lead the charge. Each answered questions of durability and consistency in 2011 to position themselves as elite players in fantasy and TMac will get each for one more cut-rate season.
The solid keeper batch starts with Helu, TMac's first-round choice that has seen a more steady workload lately. Shanahan has his own ridiculous criteria for running backs but it seems to me that Helu gains big yardage every time he touches the ball and this makes him a top sleeper for 2012. The quartet of veteran receivers may not all return but each is capable of making a fine WR2 if things fall their way. Simpson is an interesting sleeper while Moore may need someone to make way in New Orleans to ensure more steady production.
The potato chip here is Freeman, a player who may not have regressed so much as has been a victim of a brutal schedule but could still end up being a borderline keeper value at a projected $13-$17 range. TMac could simply opt to keep the rights in a price-control attempt but the temptation to lock down a reliable starting QB is likely to prove too much.
Vereen has looked sharp in limited touches so far and as we all know here a productive Patriot has a little more value than other players in this league. With BGE and the Woodstick more or less having less than secure roles it could be a big push from Vereen that relegates them to the scrap heap. He will make a fine sleeper in year two.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Playoff Picture Update- Final Week, plus news
Hi,
Please see Yahoo for the updated standings.
Week 14 is upon us which means a final flurry of rivalry week games before we begin the playoffs. At this stage, the playoffs are set: Concannon is in as a division winner while Curran, DFlam, and Lee will all enter with one winning the division. Given his points lead, Concannon will win the regular season championship if he defeats Thompson. A loss or tie by Concannon opens the door for the winner of the other division- here are the scenarios:
-Curran wins with a win over TMac as he should maintain his points lead over DFlam
-DFlam wins if he defeats Brett and Curran loses or ties
-A loss by both teams would allow Lee a chance if he defeats Malinn as he holds a significant edge on points. However, he would need to also overtake Concannon in this scenario.
The four teams will meet in week 15 for the semi-finals. The top seed will select his opponent from the two wild-cards by Wednesday at noon and the remaining two teams will meet in the other game. Ties are broken by seed so in the event of a tie the division winner will advance to the Superbowl. A tie in the Superbowl will be broken by a replay in week 17 (full lineups).
The League Cup will begin in week 15. Last year's two finalists will each receive the benefit of playing one opponent in the head-to-head quarterfinals. Two teams will be drawn randomly to face those teams. The remaining six teams will be divided into two groups of three with the high scorer in each menage-a-cup advancing to the semi-finals. The semi-finals will be two head-to-head matchups. As usual, three players per team up until the full roster Cup Final in week 17 with no overlaps allowed for those in the NFFL Playoffs. Ties in the cup will be broken in order of the highest scorer for each team- if still tied, the bench is used (with, again, no overlaps).
The draw for the cup quarterfinals will take place later this week- perhaps Friday. The semi-final draw will take place the Tuesday following the quarterfinal.
Prize money, as usual: $100 for the regular season champion, $100 for the League Cup, $200 for the Superbowl. Superbowl participants can negotiate a split if they so choose prior to the game.
Any questions should be directed to the facebook thread.
Thanks,
Tim
Please see Yahoo for the updated standings.
Week 14 is upon us which means a final flurry of rivalry week games before we begin the playoffs. At this stage, the playoffs are set: Concannon is in as a division winner while Curran, DFlam, and Lee will all enter with one winning the division. Given his points lead, Concannon will win the regular season championship if he defeats Thompson. A loss or tie by Concannon opens the door for the winner of the other division- here are the scenarios:
-Curran wins with a win over TMac as he should maintain his points lead over DFlam
-DFlam wins if he defeats Brett and Curran loses or ties
-A loss by both teams would allow Lee a chance if he defeats Malinn as he holds a significant edge on points. However, he would need to also overtake Concannon in this scenario.
The four teams will meet in week 15 for the semi-finals. The top seed will select his opponent from the two wild-cards by Wednesday at noon and the remaining two teams will meet in the other game. Ties are broken by seed so in the event of a tie the division winner will advance to the Superbowl. A tie in the Superbowl will be broken by a replay in week 17 (full lineups).
The League Cup will begin in week 15. Last year's two finalists will each receive the benefit of playing one opponent in the head-to-head quarterfinals. Two teams will be drawn randomly to face those teams. The remaining six teams will be divided into two groups of three with the high scorer in each menage-a-cup advancing to the semi-finals. The semi-finals will be two head-to-head matchups. As usual, three players per team up until the full roster Cup Final in week 17 with no overlaps allowed for those in the NFFL Playoffs. Ties in the cup will be broken in order of the highest scorer for each team- if still tied, the bench is used (with, again, no overlaps).
The draw for the cup quarterfinals will take place later this week- perhaps Friday. The semi-final draw will take place the Tuesday following the quarterfinal.
Prize money, as usual: $100 for the regular season champion, $100 for the League Cup, $200 for the Superbowl. Superbowl participants can negotiate a split if they so choose prior to the game.
Any questions should be directed to the facebook thread.
Thanks,
Tim
Monday, December 5, 2011
MNF Week 13
No MNF Game of the Week as all has been settled- not even fantasy implications for tonight's Dullsville Bowl! A quick rundown of what transpired in week 13...
The top contenders all ran up big scores as they prepared for the playoffs. Lee looked very much a #1 in a massive win over Brett while Curran took care of Nemo with ease behind Gronkowski's three touchdowns. In what was a tight contest almost all day, Concannon finally pulled ahead of TMac and clinched a division title, ensuring a playoff return after a two season absence. Malinn kept his calculator happy with what looks all but sure to be a win over Tighe but with Lee's victory he is now mathematically removed from the playoff chase. The scores:
Lee 125 (Rivers), Brett 51
Malinn 102 (MJD), Tighe 66 (V-Jackson)
Concannon 112 (Mathews), TMac 101
Curran 113, Nemo 78
DFlam 110, Thompson 99
The big news of the day was for DFlam. First, he fought off Thompson in what was a valiant performance from the much-maligned defending champion that hints at potential difficulty for the commissioner's quest to secure the top seed. More relevantly, the injury to Matt Forte could prove a decisive blow for what is a fairly thin running back pool for the Teen Idles. Early news indicates a two to four week layoff, or precisely the length that remains in the NFFL season.
Publication Preview
Tuesday: Playoff Picture Update
Wednesday: 2012 Keeper Alert- I like where this one is heading, keep an eye out
Friday: Rivalry Week Preview
The top contenders all ran up big scores as they prepared for the playoffs. Lee looked very much a #1 in a massive win over Brett while Curran took care of Nemo with ease behind Gronkowski's three touchdowns. In what was a tight contest almost all day, Concannon finally pulled ahead of TMac and clinched a division title, ensuring a playoff return after a two season absence. Malinn kept his calculator happy with what looks all but sure to be a win over Tighe but with Lee's victory he is now mathematically removed from the playoff chase. The scores:
Lee 125 (Rivers), Brett 51
Malinn 102 (MJD), Tighe 66 (V-Jackson)
Concannon 112 (Mathews), TMac 101
Curran 113, Nemo 78
DFlam 110, Thompson 99
The big news of the day was for DFlam. First, he fought off Thompson in what was a valiant performance from the much-maligned defending champion that hints at potential difficulty for the commissioner's quest to secure the top seed. More relevantly, the injury to Matt Forte could prove a decisive blow for what is a fairly thin running back pool for the Teen Idles. Early news indicates a two to four week layoff, or precisely the length that remains in the NFFL season.
Publication Preview
Tuesday: Playoff Picture Update
Wednesday: 2012 Keeper Alert- I like where this one is heading, keep an eye out
Friday: Rivalry Week Preview
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Power Rankings- Pre-Week 13
It has been a little while as my early momentum on Power Rankings fizzled out around a month ago. In terms of 2012, the plan will probably be to start with a full ranking, update the top 3 each week, and perhaps go full once a month from that point.
As usual, these rankings are in the idea of 'if we could pick a team today, what order would they go' but at this stage records play a big role in that. Next week, I have a similar feature planned except with 2012 keeper potential factored in- something to look forward to for those out of the race. Without further explanation, ado, or Freddy Adu, then...
10. Thompson
With four wins, Thompson is at the top of the bottom four but as noted last week his performance of late has been historically poor. Looking at the next two weeks, his QB tandem of Ryan and Palko is as bad as any in this region and he lacks a consistent threat at RB. At WR, Stevie Johnson, provided he avoids continuing to shoot himself in the foot, looked strong last week and could lead a resurgence.
The other caveat is that this squad has dealt with quite a bit of injury and some of these players are now returning. Moss is back, for one, and DMF could return in time for rivalry week. If these two can perform we could see another win from this team before the curtain falls on the 2011 season.
9. Nemo
Overall, there is not much to worry about here for contenders to trip up on but the QB duo of the Big Red Ben is solid enough to give Nemo a chance in any week. Chris Johnson has shown some spark of late and could add further to his chances. There is a hole at RB2 and the WRs, in general, lack big-time ability but Nemo has a shot to catch Curran napping in Week 13.
8. Tighe
Tighe has very little to speak of at RB but looks to have enough solid play coming in across the rest of the board to give him a steady hold of the eight spot. With Vick out, Young has played solidly but injuries to Felix Jones, Julio Jones, and Manningham have all been more difficult to overcome of late. One side note is that with Malinn all but mathematically out, Tighe is all but mathematically unlikely to impact the playoff race.
7. Brett
Brett hung around for a while before opting to give away AP and call it a season but at this moment his hold on the seven spot is very solid, both from above and below. Bush and Murray at RB is as strong a duo this side of Malinn and that gives him a good chance to impact the standings late this year. With two games against contenders- Lee this week, DFlam next- the key guys are likely the QBs. Fitzpatrick and Bradford really just could not maintain the pace but good showings in the next two weeks might lead to an upset or two. The other question is at WR- Knox and Wayne represent two solid rolls of the dice and perhaps Riley Cooper could play a big role in rivalry week.
6. Malinn
Malinn could still get into the playoffs but this view is shared only by the most socially-challenged mathematicians. With Tighe a dead rubber opponent in week 13, we look ahead to week 14 and his showdown with Lee:
QB: Romo against the Giants could go either way but Colt McCoy is in trouble at PIT
RB: Rice hosts Indy- nice- while MJD welcomes Tampa Bay. Now we are talking...
WR: Marshall (PHI) Wallace (CLE) and Lloyd (@SEA, MNF) could all provide positive games
TE: The two-TE set, Graham and Gates, are nearly matchup proof
With solid potential for an upset, Malinn will surely be preparing his Knute Rockne speech for his squad ahead of the rivalry week showdown.
5. TMac
As detailed in the playoff picture update, TMac is almost out of the division race as he needs to clear Concannon in the standings but currently trails by a full win. The other issue is at WR, where he has held the most depth all year, is now a position where things are quickly crumbling. De$ean Jack$on, a regular starter, has not contributed in weeks, and a look to the bench reveals Breaston and Simpson as the two vying for the top backup spot.
QB is an average spot with Freeman in freefall but Stafford looking to now get the thumbs-up on the injury front. Davis, at TE, is also about average. RB holds plenty of big names but only Foster is reliable. Mendenhall is likely the quietest bust of the 2011 season and Turner is beginning to limp around- who knows if he can make it. DeAngelo Williams has feasted on weak defenses of late- could he be a late savior for TMac?
Overall, TMac's squad has fought valiantly but the signs of a collapse are here and a tough schedule looms. It seems, at this point, that he will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
4. DFlam
DFlam checks in at a very strong #4 with a dynamic two-RB set at QB. Both Tebow and Newton continue to produce despite poor throwing performances of late and there is no reason to expect that to change in December.
DFlam does not have any major concerns but his top RB and WR are slight question marks- Forte lost Flacco, White has been inconsistent- and Jackson/Colston do not really seem likely to make up for it by being elite #2 guys. There is solid depth with Flacco and McGahee.
This team is simply very well-rounded and has made it this far by being uber-consistent. It should really be in line to score 95-105 point per week, a range it has fallen into more or less each week this year. A bad week against DFlam will be punished but, on the flip side, a strong showing should be rewarded.
3. Curran
Curran blew up last week, hitting 141 points and winning his fourth straight game (streaky Curran: five wins to start, three losses in a row, and now four wins on the trot). At 9-3, the explosion pulled him ahead of Lee on tie-break and gives him a huge boost in that race for the division.
His team has over-relied on Patriots but it may work out as the Pats have begun to click again on offense. Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski are the three most consistent Pats and Curran starts all of them. Palmer is a questionable QB2, probably the weakest of those in the playoff race, while Jennings has produced at a #2 level behind Jordy Nelson. With Cruz cruising, Curran has hardly noticed.
One caution flag to wave here is at RB. Gore has been banged up all year and traditionally misses a game or two. If SF locks up a bye early, Gore could sit in key playoff weeks. There is also concern for Benson, in his case more scheduling. If either falters, the backups are LT and Ricky Williams- more of a potluck offering than a pot of gold.
As usual, this team will go as the Pats go and given the cupcake-laden schedule it will be very unsurprising to see Curran make it all the way to week 16.
2. Concannon
The commish cruised early in the year but a combination of players returning to earth and injuries have brought him back to the playoff pack at this late stage of the year.
The good news is that this has not impacted the QB position. Brees and Eli have been and should remain the top duo in this league and behind this consistent output Concannon has managed to hold the ship steady while digging into his bench. Ponder provides solid insurance but without either one the season is over.
RB has been an up and down ride with a variety of tiny little bothers all season but the big blow was the loss of Fred Jackson for the year. One week removed, Wells and Mathews look to be ready to step up big and Bradshaw is back in practice but this position is weak in both the quantity and quality department.
The receiver position has been another highlight despite losing Britt for the year and Austin for most of it. Fitzgerald has proven QB-proof while AJ Green is looking like a real blue-chipper as a rookie. Jordy Nelson has been the best white WR outside of the thirteen colonies and Laurent Robinson has, finally, played to his talent. Finley, at TE, has been a bust but does look to have an easy slate moving forward.
Concannon's team has been strong all year but at this point the depth is stretch a bit thin. One injury could be a knockout blow at RB while every bit of help is needed from WR and QB. If he holds on, though, the division title and league championship beckon and the ability to choose a semi-final opponent could prove the edge needed in this very tight playoff race.
1. Lee
All four of the other contenders have holes at critical spots but Lee is not one of them- the prime reason for his inclusion here. QB1, RB1, WR1...all set for Lee with Rodgers, McCoy, and Johnson.
The issue stressed for Lee all year was depth and his move for AP kind of addressed it, until he got hurt. Still, AP should be good to go soon and with Lynch and Blount now re-emerging it seems that Lee has the RB support to overcome what has been a dreadful decision to buy Phillip Rivers. The same could be said of Dez Bryant, a tough play each week who has been bailed out by solid showings from Calvin Johnson. If Nicks can start returning to form, Lee looks to be in good shape at WR.
Like all teams, an injury would now hurt Lee but what was a depth problem in week 1 is now a more universal concern in that it is shared by all teams at this stage. Thus, given the talent level at the top spots and steady RB work shown of late it seems Lee is, at this point, the favorite to win the Superbowl. Both Brett and Malinn, tough outs at this stage, will look to show otherwise and perhaps keep Lee out of the playoffs entirely but provided he sneaks in it could once again prove to be Lee's year.
As usual, these rankings are in the idea of 'if we could pick a team today, what order would they go' but at this stage records play a big role in that. Next week, I have a similar feature planned except with 2012 keeper potential factored in- something to look forward to for those out of the race. Without further explanation, ado, or Freddy Adu, then...
10. Thompson
With four wins, Thompson is at the top of the bottom four but as noted last week his performance of late has been historically poor. Looking at the next two weeks, his QB tandem of Ryan and Palko is as bad as any in this region and he lacks a consistent threat at RB. At WR, Stevie Johnson, provided he avoids continuing to shoot himself in the foot, looked strong last week and could lead a resurgence.
The other caveat is that this squad has dealt with quite a bit of injury and some of these players are now returning. Moss is back, for one, and DMF could return in time for rivalry week. If these two can perform we could see another win from this team before the curtain falls on the 2011 season.
9. Nemo
Overall, there is not much to worry about here for contenders to trip up on but the QB duo of the Big Red Ben is solid enough to give Nemo a chance in any week. Chris Johnson has shown some spark of late and could add further to his chances. There is a hole at RB2 and the WRs, in general, lack big-time ability but Nemo has a shot to catch Curran napping in Week 13.
8. Tighe
Tighe has very little to speak of at RB but looks to have enough solid play coming in across the rest of the board to give him a steady hold of the eight spot. With Vick out, Young has played solidly but injuries to Felix Jones, Julio Jones, and Manningham have all been more difficult to overcome of late. One side note is that with Malinn all but mathematically out, Tighe is all but mathematically unlikely to impact the playoff race.
7. Brett
Brett hung around for a while before opting to give away AP and call it a season but at this moment his hold on the seven spot is very solid, both from above and below. Bush and Murray at RB is as strong a duo this side of Malinn and that gives him a good chance to impact the standings late this year. With two games against contenders- Lee this week, DFlam next- the key guys are likely the QBs. Fitzpatrick and Bradford really just could not maintain the pace but good showings in the next two weeks might lead to an upset or two. The other question is at WR- Knox and Wayne represent two solid rolls of the dice and perhaps Riley Cooper could play a big role in rivalry week.
6. Malinn
Malinn could still get into the playoffs but this view is shared only by the most socially-challenged mathematicians. With Tighe a dead rubber opponent in week 13, we look ahead to week 14 and his showdown with Lee:
QB: Romo against the Giants could go either way but Colt McCoy is in trouble at PIT
RB: Rice hosts Indy- nice- while MJD welcomes Tampa Bay. Now we are talking...
WR: Marshall (PHI) Wallace (CLE) and Lloyd (@SEA, MNF) could all provide positive games
TE: The two-TE set, Graham and Gates, are nearly matchup proof
With solid potential for an upset, Malinn will surely be preparing his Knute Rockne speech for his squad ahead of the rivalry week showdown.
5. TMac
As detailed in the playoff picture update, TMac is almost out of the division race as he needs to clear Concannon in the standings but currently trails by a full win. The other issue is at WR, where he has held the most depth all year, is now a position where things are quickly crumbling. De$ean Jack$on, a regular starter, has not contributed in weeks, and a look to the bench reveals Breaston and Simpson as the two vying for the top backup spot.
QB is an average spot with Freeman in freefall but Stafford looking to now get the thumbs-up on the injury front. Davis, at TE, is also about average. RB holds plenty of big names but only Foster is reliable. Mendenhall is likely the quietest bust of the 2011 season and Turner is beginning to limp around- who knows if he can make it. DeAngelo Williams has feasted on weak defenses of late- could he be a late savior for TMac?
Overall, TMac's squad has fought valiantly but the signs of a collapse are here and a tough schedule looms. It seems, at this point, that he will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
4. DFlam
DFlam checks in at a very strong #4 with a dynamic two-RB set at QB. Both Tebow and Newton continue to produce despite poor throwing performances of late and there is no reason to expect that to change in December.
DFlam does not have any major concerns but his top RB and WR are slight question marks- Forte lost Flacco, White has been inconsistent- and Jackson/Colston do not really seem likely to make up for it by being elite #2 guys. There is solid depth with Flacco and McGahee.
This team is simply very well-rounded and has made it this far by being uber-consistent. It should really be in line to score 95-105 point per week, a range it has fallen into more or less each week this year. A bad week against DFlam will be punished but, on the flip side, a strong showing should be rewarded.
3. Curran
Curran blew up last week, hitting 141 points and winning his fourth straight game (streaky Curran: five wins to start, three losses in a row, and now four wins on the trot). At 9-3, the explosion pulled him ahead of Lee on tie-break and gives him a huge boost in that race for the division.
His team has over-relied on Patriots but it may work out as the Pats have begun to click again on offense. Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski are the three most consistent Pats and Curran starts all of them. Palmer is a questionable QB2, probably the weakest of those in the playoff race, while Jennings has produced at a #2 level behind Jordy Nelson. With Cruz cruising, Curran has hardly noticed.
One caution flag to wave here is at RB. Gore has been banged up all year and traditionally misses a game or two. If SF locks up a bye early, Gore could sit in key playoff weeks. There is also concern for Benson, in his case more scheduling. If either falters, the backups are LT and Ricky Williams- more of a potluck offering than a pot of gold.
As usual, this team will go as the Pats go and given the cupcake-laden schedule it will be very unsurprising to see Curran make it all the way to week 16.
2. Concannon
The commish cruised early in the year but a combination of players returning to earth and injuries have brought him back to the playoff pack at this late stage of the year.
The good news is that this has not impacted the QB position. Brees and Eli have been and should remain the top duo in this league and behind this consistent output Concannon has managed to hold the ship steady while digging into his bench. Ponder provides solid insurance but without either one the season is over.
RB has been an up and down ride with a variety of tiny little bothers all season but the big blow was the loss of Fred Jackson for the year. One week removed, Wells and Mathews look to be ready to step up big and Bradshaw is back in practice but this position is weak in both the quantity and quality department.
The receiver position has been another highlight despite losing Britt for the year and Austin for most of it. Fitzgerald has proven QB-proof while AJ Green is looking like a real blue-chipper as a rookie. Jordy Nelson has been the best white WR outside of the thirteen colonies and Laurent Robinson has, finally, played to his talent. Finley, at TE, has been a bust but does look to have an easy slate moving forward.
Concannon's team has been strong all year but at this point the depth is stretch a bit thin. One injury could be a knockout blow at RB while every bit of help is needed from WR and QB. If he holds on, though, the division title and league championship beckon and the ability to choose a semi-final opponent could prove the edge needed in this very tight playoff race.
1. Lee
All four of the other contenders have holes at critical spots but Lee is not one of them- the prime reason for his inclusion here. QB1, RB1, WR1...all set for Lee with Rodgers, McCoy, and Johnson.
The issue stressed for Lee all year was depth and his move for AP kind of addressed it, until he got hurt. Still, AP should be good to go soon and with Lynch and Blount now re-emerging it seems that Lee has the RB support to overcome what has been a dreadful decision to buy Phillip Rivers. The same could be said of Dez Bryant, a tough play each week who has been bailed out by solid showings from Calvin Johnson. If Nicks can start returning to form, Lee looks to be in good shape at WR.
Like all teams, an injury would now hurt Lee but what was a depth problem in week 1 is now a more universal concern in that it is shared by all teams at this stage. Thus, given the talent level at the top spots and steady RB work shown of late it seems Lee is, at this point, the favorite to win the Superbowl. Both Brett and Malinn, tough outs at this stage, will look to show otherwise and perhaps keep Lee out of the playoffs entirely but provided he sneaks in it could once again prove to be Lee's year.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Power Rankings- Delayed
Power Rankings have been postponed until tomorrow...please check in and sorry for the inconvenience. If anyone has ideas for a quick bit of writing over these next two weeks, post in the comments or on the thread. I've got a 2011 draft lookback and a 2012 'Power Rankings' of sorts in the works (plus a playoff picture update, MNF, the usual)- any additional ideas would be welcome.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Quick Playoff Picture Update
Happy December...a look at the many races taking place in the last two weeks.
Norwood Division
At this stage, Concannon (9-3) holds a one-game edge on TMac (8-4) for the division lead. Ahead by nearly 250 points, Concannon also holds the tie-breaker, effectively making this a one and a half game lead. For TMac to win the division, he would need to win the head-to-head match in week 13, beat Curran in week 14, and hope Thompson can pull off the upset over Concannon in their rivalry week showdown. It seems very unlikely that Concannon, despite a handful of injuries, will not win the division.
Mustang Division
A little murkier here, Curran is ahead of DFlam at this moment by tie-breaker and is likely to retain this edge through the end of the season. Both teams sit at 9-3. Lee, at 8-4, is one back but could compete with Curran in the event of a tie if he outscores Curran by 31 points over the last two weeks. All three sides face opponents out of the race this week- Lee gets Brett, Curran faces Nemo, DFlam grapples with Thompson- but rivalry week sees slightly tougher competition. At this point, Curran is the favorite thanks to the tie-breaker edge over DFlam and the one-game lead over Lee but he could slip up in week 14 to TMac, potentially giving the other two gentlemen an opening.
Number One Seed- League Championship
The race for the championship basically comes down to whether Concannon loses or not. If he wins out, the points lead he holds will likely be enough to win any tie-breakers with the Mustang Division champion. If he does manage to drop a game, the winner of the Mustang Division will likely be ahead on W-L record and take the spoils.
Wild Card Positions
DFlam is in at 9-3 while Lee edges TMac via the tie-breaker by nearly 150 points. TMac's point total is very poor at this stage- he trails almost all competitors by at least sixty points- so he would likely need two wins in the last two to grab a wild card position. One win would give him nine total for the season, not enough to edge Curran or DFlam, who are already on nine, so in that scenario Lee would need to lose twice.
Predictions?
The Commissioner boastfully predicts his own squad to take the #1 seed and the league championship while he likes Lee to get upset by Malinn in rivalry week but for it to be an ultimately moot point as Lee skates in via tie-breaker for the last wild card spot. Curran fills in the other division championship, edging 11-3 DFlam on yet another tie-breaker.
Norwood Division
At this stage, Concannon (9-3) holds a one-game edge on TMac (8-4) for the division lead. Ahead by nearly 250 points, Concannon also holds the tie-breaker, effectively making this a one and a half game lead. For TMac to win the division, he would need to win the head-to-head match in week 13, beat Curran in week 14, and hope Thompson can pull off the upset over Concannon in their rivalry week showdown. It seems very unlikely that Concannon, despite a handful of injuries, will not win the division.
Mustang Division
A little murkier here, Curran is ahead of DFlam at this moment by tie-breaker and is likely to retain this edge through the end of the season. Both teams sit at 9-3. Lee, at 8-4, is one back but could compete with Curran in the event of a tie if he outscores Curran by 31 points over the last two weeks. All three sides face opponents out of the race this week- Lee gets Brett, Curran faces Nemo, DFlam grapples with Thompson- but rivalry week sees slightly tougher competition. At this point, Curran is the favorite thanks to the tie-breaker edge over DFlam and the one-game lead over Lee but he could slip up in week 14 to TMac, potentially giving the other two gentlemen an opening.
Number One Seed- League Championship
The race for the championship basically comes down to whether Concannon loses or not. If he wins out, the points lead he holds will likely be enough to win any tie-breakers with the Mustang Division champion. If he does manage to drop a game, the winner of the Mustang Division will likely be ahead on W-L record and take the spoils.
Wild Card Positions
DFlam is in at 9-3 while Lee edges TMac via the tie-breaker by nearly 150 points. TMac's point total is very poor at this stage- he trails almost all competitors by at least sixty points- so he would likely need two wins in the last two to grab a wild card position. One win would give him nine total for the season, not enough to edge Curran or DFlam, who are already on nine, so in that scenario Lee would need to lose twice.
Predictions?
The Commissioner boastfully predicts his own squad to take the #1 seed and the league championship while he likes Lee to get upset by Malinn in rivalry week but for it to be an ultimately moot point as Lee skates in via tie-breaker for the last wild card spot. Curran fills in the other division championship, edging 11-3 DFlam on yet another tie-breaker.
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