NFFL Superbowl X Preview- Part I

NFFL Superbowl X Preview

Part I (12.21.2011): Rosters

Part II (12.22.2011): Trends and Numbers

Part III (12.23.2011): Thoughts and Commentary

It is NFFL Superbowl week, the tenth such week in league history, and a particularly special one.  How do we know this number and why is it important?

Our league ‘tree’, so to speak, uses its own set of rings to mark age as we hurtle forward through the years.  Up until last season, these rings involved Clinton Portis and his impressive NFL career as in our first league draft I was able to select him for what turned into a historic league campaign.  Now ‘retired’ we turn to a new player to mark the seasons and it seems the most logical candidate is A.J. Green, another PBR draft choice who looks to be a sure-fire ten-year NFL player.  Good luck, gentlemen, as we enter the Green Era.

But enough talk- this is the type of thing I’ll cover tomorrow.  The positional matchups will not analyze themselves so, without further ado, part one of the three-part preview.

QB

Projected: Tebow, Newton vs. Rivers, Rodgers

DFlam strides forward into this game on the backs of his two-headed QB horse (Tam Newbow?), but Lee boasts perhaps the better duo in this contest.  Rivers, red-hot of late, can be expected to score into the mid-twenties against a Detroit team that invites shootouts with its open style and lame pass defense while Rodgers is likely the league MVP- and he has been better in fantasy than in real life.  His contest with Chicago should see the usual twenty-plus points.

Of course, DFlam has two budding young stars here and Newton is certainly going to enjoy facing off against the Tampa Bay ‘defense’.  Tebow is the big question mark here on the road against Buffalo as unpredictable factors such as weather, play-calling, and Fitzpatrick could all conspire to hold down his numbers.  We give the slight edge to Lee here on the back of Rivers’s hot form.

RB

Projected: McGahee, Jackson, Grant v McCoy, AP, Lynch

Flam has more option on the bench with Thomas and BGE while Lee is surely set with his trio.  Again, Lee looks to be in strong shape here on the basis of both McCoy and AP facing relatively porous opposing fronts in Dallas and Washington, respectively.  Lynch has been red-hot, hotter than Rivers, but he faces a Niners defense that has performed at historically unbending levels.  Being the home team will surely help Lynch and it is in his favor that the Seahawks tend to run when inside the ten yard line.  The x-factor is indeed Blount who faces a Carolina defense that has only one objective- get off the field as fast as possible so Cam Newton can score.

DFlam’s squad has a major Achilles heel and it is at the tailback area.  McGahee is hurt, Jackson faces an angry and motivated Pittsburgh team looking to get back in the win column,and Grant’s best case scenario is about five points.  My suspicion is that Thomas does find his way in here somehow against an Atlanta team that New Orleans should move the ball on but that is not nearly enough to balance the scales.  At RB, a big up to Lee.

WR

Projected: White, Colston, Williams vs. Bryant, Calvin, Nicks

No mysteries from Lee- his team has no depth and it remains true to this moment.  The line up selects itself and with these three he has the most ‘ball-winning’ trio of receivers in the league- guys who can go up and get any duck, Tebow out, or deflected ball for yards and touchdowns.  Matchups tend to go out the door with these types but I do like Nicks to be motivated against the Jets after he cost PBR a potential spot here with a finely executed drop while Johnson is back in form after a trip to the bay area.  Bryant is the question mark, a player who has seen his targets drop as various receivers have made themselves targets in Dallas.

DFlam is by no means in great shape here but it is likewise a situation where the team picks itself.  Colston, remarkably, scored no touchdowns last week but his size is always a factor and he has played well of late.  White is red-hot, playing as well as any WR in football, and a game in the Big Easy is always likely to see him score.  Williams goes to Carolina with a struggling offense led by a potentially injured Freeman but he is almost certain to exceed last week’s total of zero points.  Despite that,  though, I see Lee here with a solid edge.

Tight End

Projected: Hernandez vs. Lewis

Lewis looks likely to step in for the banged up Ballard and here is the window for DFlam.  Lewis is, like last year, a big stiff, but with Gabbert at the ‘controls’ his touchdown form has dropped and he looks likely to score about two to three points.  Hernandez basically beat Tebow by himself last week and against Miami should be in line to continue scoring.  A big edge here but the nature of the volume at TE will make it hard for DFlam to overcome Lee’s edge.

Final Thought

Two strong lineups arrived here via QB but with those positions nominally cancelling out the game comes down to the most critical of fantasy positions, RB.  Lee’s edge here, to me, makes him the favorite and I do not think DFlam’s help form his ball catchers will help him overcome that hurdle.