No, not a politically-slanted look at our league...
A new twist here as I take away from one of my favorite features- Mike Lombardi's blue chip, red chip look at NFL.com from the preseason. If I recall correctly, he rates a blue-chip as a top five guy at a position and a red chip as a guy in the next five, then goes through each position and figures those guys out.
Here, I will not have such strict definitions- a blue chip is not a top-five guy, for example- but I will have a loose idea of a blue chip guy being a major keeper asset in next year and beyond while a red chip is a piece I see being potentially useful. Other distinctions- a 'potato chip' is a player I see as being overrated while a 'chocolate chip' is someone I see as being useful, not for immediate consumption, but in some season down the line. We'll try to limit the joke chips but I cannot really resist. On with it, then...
Note: please follow the link below for the current location of the keeper rosters:
http://www.freewebs.com/norwoodfantasyfootballleague/rosters.htm
Brett
Brett is a good place to start because he is first alphabetically in our league. He is also in a very interesting keeper position next year, one that I cannot recall anyone in this league being in. Basically, Brett has a lot of very good running backs- by my count, seven- and all hold keeper status. With teams in this league slanting toward QB of late, Brett's lack of major pieces at that position is interesting until you note the two first round choices and the stack of talent emerging from the NFL draft this coming April. It seems the long-term plan was to stack the RB position, buy into the QB-laden draft of 2012, and fill in the gaps with auction money. At this stage, it seems to be working very well. Let us take a look at the players:
Brett's chips
Blue-chip: 1st round pick, DeMarco Murray, Antonio Brown
Red-chip: Bradford, Fitzpatrick, Michael Bush, Best, Ben Tate, Ingram, Denarious Moore, 1st round pick (TMac)
Potato chip: James Starks, Jacoby Ford
Chocolate chip: Jacquizz Rodgers
Aiming at the bottom four, Brett stands a good chance of landing at least a top-five slot in this coming draft. With the talent available, it seems a very good chance to land a blue-chip guy and I think each of the four picks associated with the bottom four should earn that status. Murray has been a major piece of Dallas's surge, not in just his talent, but in his ability to bring stability and consistency to the Romo-coaster. I like him to continue as a top player in years two and three. Brown, although his production may be lacking, is a big-time guy in my mind with his target rate, the fading of Hines Ward, Big Ben, and Pittsburgh's trend away from a slumping running game.
The red chip guys could cause some controversy. Certainly, some of these are talented enough to be blue in the face about their red distinction. But, the salaries of the QB duo combined with their one year of keeper time make them less than perfect assets and I am unsold on the merits of the backs in timeshares. TMac's pick, potentially solid, is no sure thing in the lottery. One swing guy is Michael Bush- if he leaves, he could be blue- but I doubt Oakland lets him go given how brittle McFadden has been.
I label Ford a potato chip because Oakland's pass offense has really been hard to peg of late. Heyward-Bey, Moore, and Murphy have all outshone him over the past two years for stretches and I wonder if Ford simply becomes more weapon than reliable pass catcher. I think he is one of the more polarizing guys in the league- some really think highly of him, others that he is a specialist type- and I fall into the latter. Starks is in a committee that is splitting a McDonald's size apple pie, not those nice big ones you see at Thanksgiving, and I am skeptical that he ever gets the work to really contribute in a fantasy offense.
Jacquizz Rodgers is a tiny, powder-keg guy who is a symbol of the explosive offensive future envisioned in Atlanta. As Turner fades, a new power back will come in who the coaches feel less indebted to give the ball to and this alone should give Rodgers more chances to become a Sproles-type.
Concannon
PBR had a nice bounce back season after the commissioner's first losing season in league history. Opting to hold onto many trade pieces, PBR remains positioned to compete with a strong base of talent in 2012.
Blue-chip: A.J Green, Ryan Mathews
Red-chip: Ponder, Beanie Wells, Fred Jackson, Kendall Hunter, Jordy Nelson, Britt, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Ahmad Bradshaw
Chocolate chip: Ryan Mallet, Lance Kendricks
Green and Mathews will form the base for what should be a promising, similar, and slightly more expensive 2012 PBR roster. Both players are elite talents who have shone in 2011 but Green is certainly the more consistent and enticing player. With no clear complement at RB and a lot of areas to rebuild in San Diego, Mathews should get a shot to take a full load of work in 2012, raising my expectation to a blue level.
The choice of Ponder in the middle of round two could be a franchise maker for PBR as he looks set to ascend to QB2 status in 2012. A strong draft was rounded off by Hunter, likely a backup once again in SF but a player who has shone in limited action and is being described as a Brian Westbrook level prospect. Given the way RBs fall off and Gore's injury history, there could be stardom ahead for Hunter in 2012.
The returning vets are the questions. At RB, three solid guys join Mathews and all are no sure things. Of the three, I see Fred Jackson as a big contributor but he has only one year of keeper status left and will command a double-digit salary. Plus, at 30, his ability to return from a first major injury will be a factor. Beanie Wells, in incredible shape this year, should hold off the challenge of Ryan Williams given the latter's difficult injury and general history of rookie (or first-year) runners failing to beat out incumbents in year one. Bradshaw, then, is the potato, an oft-injured back with a big salary who may or may not continue to produce as he once has. Nelson, Britt, and the first rounder should all add to the stash of talent here (but Britt's injury status must be monitored- a potential potato chip due to his knee).
Taken in the 2011 draft, the success of Mallet and Kendricks could make the haul one of the best in league history. Mallet is obviously a wait and see, a promising arm who is now sitting in for a degree from Brady College at the University of Belichick, while Kendricks is a talent that got lost in a massively disappointing Rams season.
Curran
Curran will retain a limited but solid core of keeper talent after a couple of misses in 2011 failed to restock a cupboard that was depleted to make a 2010 playoff push.
Blue chip: Gronk!
Red chip: Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Titus Young, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Wes Welker
Chocolate chip: Hoyer
Gronkowski is currently on a hot streak of scoring and is perhaps among the top three tight ends in the league. He will be a massive bargain in a landscape where top tight ends are simply very hard to find.
In the NFFL, any cheap QB is a plus and Sanchez will be right on the edge. With the Jets struggling to run, his passing stats are no fluke and I think he will retain some value in 2012. Palmer, provided the Raiders do not trade three firsts for Peyton Manning, should return as a starter and is likely to remain at the $0 level thanks to a late start. Titus Young was a great draft choice for Curran and could be a big part of the emerging Detroit offense in his second season.
Wes Welker is no potato but his status reflects what will be a close call salary wise. I could see a couple dollars of savings but he will be unlikely to reflect a major keeper value. The other Patriot, Hoyer, could prove immense. Hoyer is well regarded league-wide and could end up a starter via trade if a team is willing to tempt the Pats. The key may be how comfortable the team is with Mallet as the back-up.
DFlam
DFlam has made a lot of noise in 2011 thanks to the surprise emergence of Cam Newton and he will look to ride that horse into 2012 and beyond. His keepers are QB-heavy and that is a good place to be for any team but there is plenty of work to be done to stack the other positions with talented young players for future seasons.
Blue chip: Newton
Red chip: Tebow, Hernandez, Baldwin
Potato chip: Mike Williams
Chocolate chip: Ricky Stanzi, Colin Kaepernick
Newton, as mentioned, is a big, big piece and likely the top keeper entering 2012. Fellow QB Tebow joins him a a red thanks to a total lack of security in his job but if he gets to play he will produce in the NFFL. Hernandez is a great complement to Gronk but is still able to produce at a starter-worthy level as a fantasy TE. Baldwin, in year two, should see more work in KC and his immense talent could see him as a major breakout guy in 2012. On the flip side, Williams of Tampa is a guy who is going to be very polarizing next summer- at this stage, I see him flopping, his rookie season a potential mirage brought on by circumstance and scheduling.
The two rookie QBs are interesting cases. Kaepernick is the talent, the second round pick that DFlam traded up for, while Stanzi is less exciting but seems to be the worker-type that succeeds in the NFL.
One interesting thing to consider here is the staff of each team. In KC, an experienced Pioli knows how to stockpile players and has the staff in place that will give Stanzi a shot if he deserves it. On the other side, the SF front office has enjoyed a strong start but one thing about rookie coaches is that their philosophy on drafting is still developing and it makes one wonder if he would take a new QB this season if given that chance. The situations bear watching but DFlam could have two solid guys to plug in as Tebow and Newton move out of keeper eligibility.
Lee
Lee has enjoyed his fair share of criticism but of late his drafting has been of a high caliber. Despite a strong 2011 team, Lee will have a number of impressive prospects to build his 2012 team around.
Blue chip: Shady McCoy
Red chip: Blount, Lynch, Ridley, Nicks, Dez Bryant, Vincent Brown
Potato chip: Blaine Gabbert
Chocolate chip: Matt Flynn
McCoy leads the line here as a big-time producer who looks durable and matchup proof- one of 2012's top keepers and a potential top-five player. Nicks is a notch below, his injury record and price working against his blue chip status, but he will be solid. Blount, Lynch, and Bryant all should be back in 2012 with solid production. A strong 2012 draft brought Ridley, a likely split-time guy in NE, and Brown, a promising WR in SD, and each should contribute at various times next year as they continue slow but promising development in strong offenses.
His other draft choice, Blaine Gabbert, has the playing time but it seems that he lacks the play-making ability and Jacksonville lacks the explosive talent around him to help make him a true fantasy producer. He will return but in no more a role than emergency/back-up QB with little promise to advance beyond that. On the other hand, Flynn has been a limited but efficient producer for GB and is a candidate to start somewhere, and produce, in the next three years.
Malinn
Malinn has famously drafted the best rookie class in league history but as the talent from that group dries up he looks at a keeper roster that is beginning to look bare at key QB and RB areas. There is more talent at the pass-catching positions and from there Malinn will begin assembling what he hopes is another strong team in 2012.
Blue chip: Jimmy Graham
Red chip: Greene, Kolb, Wallace, Torrey Smith, Decker, LeShoure, 1st round pick
Potato chip: Colt McCoy
Chocolate chip: Arrelious Benn
Graham is, in my mind, fantasy football's top TE and should be a fixture here for the next two seasons. Joining him will be Greene, perhaps no more than a W/R flex but a strong and inexpensive one at that. Kolb, Decker, and Smith should all continue to grow in their second seasons as starters while Mike Wallace, although not cheap, is an elite performer who will form the foundation of the passing offense. LeShoure was an injured player when taken late in the second round and only time will tell if he can recover to contribute in 2012. The good news is that the Lions seems to be crying out for a power back (and perhaps a detention or two) so there are points on the board if the player is healthy enough to take them.
The sad truth about McCoy is that, while among my favorite picks from last year's draft, he has shown little growth in a second season where the Browns really needed him to step up in order to compete. Given the general state of turmoil that the Browns are in, they are a strong candidate to find a new QB to compete with the Colt in 2012.
Benn, on the other hand, could find himself as a sneaky sleeper in 2012. Mike Williams has been up and down and perhaps a second option on the other side will be what is needed to return that offense to 2010 levels. He has the ability and I like his chances in 2012.
Nemo
Chris Johnson's decision to report for the 2011 season about twelve minutes after Thanksgiving will leave a sour aftertaste for what has been a bitter season for Nemo but there are reasons for optimism as we cast an eye on 2012.
Blue chip: 1st round pick, Dalton
Red chip: Big Ben, Hardesty, Greg Little, Randle Cobb
Potato chip: Dexter McCluster
Chocolate chip: Jordan Shipley
Nemo looks to have a rebuilding job ahead but the foundation will be very strong with one of the league's top keepers in Dalton. The Big Red Machine has rifled his way through a fine rookie season and should be a viable player in the many years ahead. The first-round choice, as was the case for Brett, projects to be high enough for Nemo to land another impact player. Given his draft history, one would be wise to bet on another top arm to take his place alongside Dalton.
The middle of the roster does not have the quantity of others seen so far. Roethlisberger should be a borderline value as a keeper but has likely moved into the $20-$25 range with his season and a decreasing return from the run game. Hardesty is likely to be at least part of a time-share with Hillis focused solely on green(er) pastures and another year removed from his injury should see him return with more of his old explosiveness. Little was a fine second round selection and has separated himself from his competition in the Browns receiving corps while Cobb has been explosive but little-utilized in his rookie year. If Jones and/or Driver head for the exit, Cobb, who has been spotted in one-receiver sets at various points this year, is the man in line to pick up major work as a third receiver.
McCluster is an exciting, electrifying talent but his return so far in two seasons has been iffy at best. He does not seem to be a running back but has yet to figure out how to best utilize his own skills from a receiver position. He could be a sleeper-type next year but KC is not exactly the high-flying type of offense that tends to make fantasy factors of these types of players.
Shipley could be part of a strong passing game in Cincinnati and with his fellow pass catchers failing to consistently establish themselves across from Green there could be a chance for Shipley to return from injury and win the #2 role.
Thompson
After a fairytale run to the Superbowl Championship, Thompson's squad took a major tumble and has been out of the running for quite a few weeks. 2011 gave way to 2012 right around the same time Jamaal Charles's knee went out in week two and with the superstar ex-Longhorn now officially ineligible as a keeper it is the signal of a new era in the 'cellar'.
Blue-chip: 1st round pick
Red chip: 1st round pick (DFlam), Sproles, Locker, Earl Bennett
Potato chip: Toby Gerhart
Chocolate chip: Early Doucet
The only major asset here for next season is the first round pick. In that sense, Thompson has more riding on the lottery than any team in this draft. The positive is that he picked up an extra pick from DFlam via trade and this should help him restock what is quickly turning from a 'Darren' cupboard to a barren one- as mentioned, Charles is done, but so are the talented McFadden and emerging Percy Harvin.
Sproles is not my type of player- I may have made this clear at various points- but at some level production cannot be argued with and the way he is utilized in New Orleans makes him the safest option in a high-octane unit. He should continue to provide fine W/R value next season. Locker, the Titans QB, has the look of a 'chocolate chip' but I see him likely to take over in the off-season as Hasselbeck completes his tutoring duties. He should provide steady fill-in performances on the cheap for Thompson in 2012 with backdoor QB2 potential. Bennett may be a bit of a stretch but he provided a number of solid outings prior to Cutler's injury. Look for his role to expand, both here and in Chicago, as he develops into a solid WR2 option.
Gerhart has looked half-decent in a step-in role of late but his value is minimized here on a team that generally avoids spending at the very top of the auction. Gerhart is not the type of backup who is guaranteed 80-90% of the starter's production and as he accumulates points this year he may be pushing his own salary beyond a reasonable ($0) level. Wait and see, of course, but I do not see him making a major impact in 2012.
Doucet is probably the biggest stretch here but he does have the service time in the league for a jump to not be entirely a surprise. He is the #2 option in the desert and if the quarterback play jumps from 'rubbish' to 'mildly erratic' it could see Doucet become a decent fill-in type in 2012.
Tighe
A promising season went up in flames quickly as injuries piled neck-deep around this squad before Tighe pulled the plug with the Foster trade. What seemed a three-year window with Vick is now approaching the climactic final chapter but there are pieces in place to hint at another run for an elusive Superbowl.
Blue chip: 1st round pick, Vick, V-Jax
Red chip: 1st round pick (Lee), Daniel Thomas, Spiller, Crabtree, Manningham, Julio Jones, Ryan Williams
Potato chip: Steve Smith
Chocolate chip: Emmanuel Sanders, Demariyous Thomas
Tighe will likely hold a strong top pick and should top it off with whatever rubbish Lee has sent his way. Vick and Jackson, two veteran players, are on the books at minimal prices and will be strong contributors, each a top-five candidate at his own position.
The middle of the roster is filled with solid flex-type options. Thomas and Spiller will face stiff competition for work in their respective backfields but each has shown sparks in 2011 that hint at bright futures. Crabtree, Manningham, and Jones should provide at least a WR3 from among them with Jones the most likely candidate to move comfortably into WR2 territory. The key man may be Smith, a bit of a surprise for his production this year but slipping back into the pack as Cam Newton prioritizes his own selfish needs over those of his receivers. An improved Cam in year two could see Smith continue a resurgence but my bet is that this team remains ground-oriented.
The Williams injury situation was very ugly this summer and while backs have returned to contribute it may be a tough road for him. He could end up a factor in 2013 as he spends a year simply learning to trust his own movement on the field again.
The two wild-cards are Sanders and Thomas. Each has the talent to contribute but Sanders may have missed his boat in 2011 with his injuries allowing Brown to step up while Thomas may not have a prayer of seeing a good pass reach his gifted hands anytime soon. However, any hints of improvement for these players could position Tighe to go entirely 'home-grown' at WR and allow him to spend big at RB and QB2 to shore up the roster.
TMac
The Mac Attack battled valiantly but ultimately it seems the team will fall a little short in the playoff chase. Plenty of talent is on the books, however, as TMac remains positioned to make another strong charge in 2012.
Blue chip: Stafford, Foster
Red chip: Helu, Maclin, Holmes, Simpson, Moore
Potato chip: Freeman
Chocolate chip: Shane Vereen
The duo of Stafford and Foster will surely return in 2012 to lead the charge. Each answered questions of durability and consistency in 2011 to position themselves as elite players in fantasy and TMac will get each for one more cut-rate season.
The solid keeper batch starts with Helu, TMac's first-round choice that has seen a more steady workload lately. Shanahan has his own ridiculous criteria for running backs but it seems to me that Helu gains big yardage every time he touches the ball and this makes him a top sleeper for 2012. The quartet of veteran receivers may not all return but each is capable of making a fine WR2 if things fall their way. Simpson is an interesting sleeper while Moore may need someone to make way in New Orleans to ensure more steady production.
The potato chip here is Freeman, a player who may not have regressed so much as has been a victim of a brutal schedule but could still end up being a borderline keeper value at a projected $13-$17 range. TMac could simply opt to keep the rights in a price-control attempt but the temptation to lock down a reliable starting QB is likely to prove too much.
Vereen has looked sharp in limited touches so far and as we all know here a productive Patriot has a little more value than other players in this league. With BGE and the Woodstick more or less having less than secure roles it could be a big push from Vereen that relegates them to the scrap heap. He will make a fine sleeper in year two.
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