2010 Rookie Draft Lookback

Please see Yahoo for the updated standings after last night's game.

Now, a slight rewind to last year's draft.  It has been about thirty weeks and it seems that things were a bit down last year compared to this year's electric group and 2009's solid core of top players.  Regardless, good picks were there to be made and some squads made more of it than others.  Let's take a look, class by class...

TMac- Ryan Mathews, Damian Williams, Brian Westbrook, Tony Moeaki, Greg Camarillo, Michael Jenkins, Tony Pike

TMac had few picks to work with but his top choice, Mathews, is a good metaphor for this class.   Flashes of brilliance, occasional solid outings, but generally a lack of consistent production form the top pick has been essentially the rule for this entire draft class.  Westbrook had one big game last year (not sure if TMac kept him around for it, though) and Moeaki is a promising talent who may be a year or two away thanks to his injury.  The last three picks were all supplemental round- Jenkins was not a bad pick given that.

Grade: C

Malinn- Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Arrelious Benn, Jimmy Graham, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Eddie Royal, Jason Avant, Lionell Hamilton, LeRon McClain

A solid group but both Bradford and McCoy have failed to deliver in Year Two.  This draft did, however, lay the groundwork for my own QB-heavy second round in 2011 (more to come on that in the coming days) given that in such a bad class the QBs did show to retain value.  Like TMac, Malinn found that his TE, Graham, was the best value selection at the bottom of round three.

Grade: B+

Curran- Jahvid Best, Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Snelling, Byron Leftwich, Taylor Price, Brian Hoyer

Best may turn out to be a bit of a bust but his bursts when healthy have been very inspiring.  Given what he was dealt for at auction this year he clearly holds value to some in the NFFL.  Curran was headed for an all-time whiff by selecting arguably the worst of the vaunted TEs with Gresham in round two but he recovered to snag Gronk, perhaps football's hottest TE, in round three.  Snelling contributed last year while Price and Hoyer remain projects with high upside.

Grade: A-

Thompson- C.J. Spiller, Toby Gerhart, Ed Dickson, Joe McKnight, Early Doucet, Dennis Dixon, Derek Anderson

An interesting trio of backs here that are all about to or just got their chances- Spiller, Gerhart, and McKnight. I suppose the jury is out but for now it seems that these three are all headed toward bust territory.  Getting Dickson two picks before Gronk and five before Graham is a cruel twist.

Grade: C+

Nemo- Montario Hardesty, Dexter McCluster, Armanti Edwards, Jordan Shipley, LenDale White, Todd Heap, Brady Quinn

The Hardesty injury essentially wiped out this class before it could get rolling and given what Hillis was able to do last year it is reasonable to argue that Hardesty had some big games in him.  The rest of the class has tanked, though, the Chiefs failing to turn McCluster into a Sproles-type being the big miss.  Shipley had promise before he, too, suffered a bad injury.

Grade: D+

Lee- Dez Bryant, Ben Tate, Anthony Dixon, LeGarret Blount, Kerry Meier, John Carlson, Mike Thomas, Rashard Jennings, Ramses Barden

Bryant is probably the most overrated receiver in the league, a true world-class knucklehead and a perfect fit for the self-absorbed Lee.  Tate has recovered admirably from injury but failed to put up an Arian Foster level of performance during his brief stint as the number one.  Blount has been a big boost but needed to get cut first.  Thomas, Jennings, Carlson were all solid but I am still trying to find out what position Meier plays.

Grade: B+

Tighe- Jimmy Clausen, Demariyous Thomas, Mike Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Vick, John Skelton, Antonio Bryant

Tighe had a decent haul- Thomas is going to be good once a real QB arrives in Denver and Williams had a solid rookie year- but Vick in round six?

Grade: A

Concannon- Golden Tate, Brandon LaFell, Jacoby Jones, Mardy Gilyard, Mike Kafka, Jon Kitna, Harry Douglas, Ryan Torain

A truly dreadful start with perhaps the four worst opening picks in league history were recovered nicely by a final four that, in this year or last, have contributed to NFL teams.  Kitna and Torain, both axed by PBR, were very good performers last year.

Grade: D

DFlam- Jesus, Aaron Hernandez, Anthony Gonzalez, Eric Decker, Jabar Gaffney, Sage Rosenfels, Maurice Morris

A sneaky good draft here for Flam, who picked #15.  Tebow has been OK, at times, but a cheap QB is a cheap QB and at the moment he is probably the best of this rookie class in the NFFL scoring system.  Hernandez has been no TE slouch while Decker and Gaffney have shown flashes at WR.

Grade: B+

Brett- Jonathan Dwyer, James Starks, Fred Davis, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Deji Karim, John Conner, Joe Webb, Dan LeFevour

Another sneaky good draft as Brett began at #28.  Starks has been OK, like Davis, while Joe Webb is more notable for the positional controversy he caused last year than for any on-field performance.  Fitzpatrick was gold at his draft spot but has faded of late, making him perhaps a borderline keeper next year.

Grade: B

MNF Week 12

Two loaded MNF treats and an upset as the race heats up...

Over?
Curran 114 (Cruz), Tighe 68
Brett 104, TMac 83

Curran looks to run up the score on Tighe and moves to nine wins ahead of any other league member while TMac stays stuck on eight thanks to both his own down showing and Brett's solid outing.  With Concannon well ahead on total points, TMac may be in a 'must-win' next week if he is eyeing the division title.

Nemo 75, Thompson 71 (Sproles)

Nemo is out ahead here with Sproles likely to get the four points but one never knows with these little third-down types.

MNF Double Down
Malinn 96 (Graham), Concannon 81 (Brees, Eli)

A huge encounter will see the two QBs likely to overtake Malinn's slim lead here with Graham the sole hope to absorb damage.  Laurent Robinson had the template, fully absorbing Romo on Thursday, and if Graham can replicate that showing it will come down to Eli and his unsure arm.  Looks to be in Concannon's favor but we will have to wait and see.

Game of the Week
DFlam 97 (Colston), Lee 92 (Nicks)

Coltson plus five seems about the same as Nicks so this, to me, is about as 50-50 as a game can get.  A win for either brings the victor to the nine win land and level with Curran while the loser may be left hunting for a wild-card spot.

Week 12 Mini-Preview

Curran-Tighe

This one looks out of reach for Tighe as upsets require touchdowns and he did not get them from either Crabtree or Thomas.  Curran did leave himself slightly vulnerable here with a poor Gore showing but a solid Brady night and a TD to either Welker or Gronk should do it.  Does Vince Young just win games?  Not in fantasy.  If things are tight, it will likely fall to Manningham (Tighe) against Cruz (Curran) on Monday.

Concannon-Malinn

This one looks like it could go either way after Rice had a ho-hum outing against the Niners and Laurent Robinson cushioned Romo's solid day by catching both of his TDs.  Both sides are running unusual 'formations'- Malinn is going double tight ends, no doubt inspired by the Pats, while Concannon trots out a four-WR set for the first time all year as his star continues to fade.  The big edge at RB favors Malinn but it is likely that it will be up for grabs on MNF with Concannon holding both QBs and Malinn just praying that Jimmy Graham gets some love.

Brett-TMac

Stafford salvaged his day late while Murray failed to hit the end zone, giving TMac a boost early in this tilt.  This one could be decided by 4pm as both of Brett's QBs, Fitz and Bradford, take the field.  Big games from both could put TMac in a bit of discomfort.

Lee-DFlam

A big showdown saw Lee make the first move as he got 33 from three players.  The AP injury is a big blow, potentially enough to knock him out of the playoffs, but as anyone who watched Ravens-Niners knows, Blount had a big run against Green Bay!  This one could come down to Colston-Nicks on MNF.

Nemo-Thompson

Nemo has been hit hard by the flopping of CJ and Hillis but his QB tandem of Dalton and Big Ben are certainly above average and could provide a base from which he could launch some upsets late.  He will look to pick up steam against a Thompson team that, literally, has had no chance of winning for four straight weeks.

Suck for Luck? My Luck Sucked!

Hi,

Annual luck analysis, here is the refresher.

-Rank all the scores for each week
-Top score gets a nine, next highest an eight.  Low score gets a zero.
-Add all the points for the year and divide by 9 (so the top score gets a 'guaranteed' win)
-The result is the 'expected wins' based on points scored relative to the league, per week

2011 Luck Standings, Weeks 1-11
Concannon, 8.28
Lee, 8.22
Curran, 7.50
TMac, 6.61
DFlam, 6.56
Malinn, 5.89
Brett, 3.83
Tighe, 3.61
Thompsom. 2.28
Nemo, 2.22

2011 Adjusted Standings (Actual - Projected)
DFlam, +1.44
TMac, +1.39
Thompson, +0.72
Curran, +0.50
Malinn, +0.11
Lee, -0.22
Concannon, -0.28
Tighe, -1.11
Nemo, -1.22
Brett, -1.33

Seems, for the most part, that teams made their own luck this year.  A couple of interesting observations from the table, first, Tighe led the league in last place scoring performances after seven weeks.  However, he no longer holds that lead as Thompson has, incredibly, finished last for four straight weeks!  An incredible feat, in my opinion.  Other notes...

-Concannon leads the league with five top finishes but four of those came before week 7.
-Nemo seems unlucky but these stats are lying- he has yet to crack the top half of a scoring week.  This is the Madden Curse, I believe, at full play.
-The 'form table'- the standings for just the last three weeks- show Lee (21.5), TMac and Malinn (21), and Curran (20.5) to be in fine shape heading into the stretch run.  Fellow contenders DFlam (12, as Cam has turned back into a rookie) and Concannon (14, as injuries pile up) are limping toward the finish.
-Brett was touted as a sleeper yesterday but Tighe has posted a 6 and a 5 in the last three weeks to indicate some possible upset-mindedness of his own.

Stretch Run Preview: Schedule

A quick look at the key battles remaining and the likely implications on the chase for the four playoff positions.  Currently, Concannon leads TMac and Malinn in the Norwood Division while Lee is just ahead of Curran and DFlam by tiebreaker in the Mustang Division.

Week 12
Tighe v Curran
Malinn v Concannon
TMac v Brett
Lee v DFlam
Nemo v Thompson

A 'dead rubber' contest between Nemo and Thompson indicates two key head-to-head clashes and indeed that is exactly what we have as Malinn meets Concannon and Lee grapples with DFlam.

First, the Concannon-Malinn tilt is yet another 'playoff' game for Malinn as his 6-5 record means no more slips can be tolerated.  In what is not an unusual position, Malinn is down in the standings but charging fast in a trademark late season surge.  However, in what has been a strange top-heavy year he finds himself two full games out of the playoffs with three to go and might become the second nine-win team to miss the playoffs.  A win here would give him a good chance meet Lee in Week 14 with something on the line as Tighe could provide easy opposition in Week 13.  Concannon, meanwhile, has led the league from the starting gun but could find himself out of the playoff picture entirely with a loss.  However, with Lee-DFlam going it is more likely that he remains in the playoffs by a tie-breaker.

The Lee-DFlam matchup has plenty of intrigue as at this point it seems only Curran could overtake Lee to win the division by a tie-breaker.  Therefore, a DFlam victory is critical as he will need to be ahead of the Korean by a clear game to earn the honor of a divisional championship.  Both face Brett but with DFlam getting Thompson and Lee facing Malinn the schedule edge looking ahead is with DFlam so there is some urgency here for Lee, as well.

Other notes
-Brett has provided tough opposition of late but TMac has won six straight and should continue his winning ways
-Tighe hit 100 last week and a repeat could make life uncomfortable for Curran

Week 13
Brett v Lee
Malinn v Tighe
TMac v Concannon
Nemo v Curran
Thompson v DFlam

The Concannon-TMac showdown headlines this slate as the division title could be on the line.  It is a rematch of a 92-90 win for TMac in week 9.

The remaining four games see four playoff contender meet four Luck contenders.  More to come on the specifics in a week but Brett-Lee jumps out as a potential banana skin.

Week 14
Malinn v Lee
Tighe v Nemo
TMac v Curran
Concannon v Thompson
Brett v DFlam

Rivalry Week returns in full glory with a slate of juicy matchups.  Malinn-Lee could, provided Malinn gets to eight wins, be for a playoff berth while TMac-Curran could be the same.  Concannon-Thompson and Brett-DFlam will certainly see spoiler intrigue while Tighe-Nemo, the league oldest rivalry, will be relegated to ESPNTapeDelay given the lack of playoff implications.

Summary

Top Matchup- Week 13, Concannon-TMac
Seems this way now, at least.  Given the massive points gap, Concannon would need to trail TMac by a full two games entering week 14 for the division to be clinched.  Therefore, this game will likely decide the title- two wins to close the year by TMac should give him the honors while a Concannon win will likely force a desired tie-breaker.

Toughest Schedule- TMac
A tough call as the six contenders all face at least one team on the outside but TMac gets two eight-win opponents to close out the year along with a tricky game against Brett.  On the flip side, Curran gets the easiest slate with both Tighe and Nemo before a final-week TMac showdown.

Spoiler- Brett
With three games against eight-win squads Brett is in a unique position to upset the balance of the playoff chase.  His stable of running backs gives him a good chance as the weather turns south but the key man may be Sam Bradford, in the middle of a tough year, getting his act together against lesser opponents in December.  Thompson and Nemo, with solid quarterbacking, and Tighe, who hit 100 last week, are all candidates, but none of the three has the schedule Brett has.

MNF Week 11

MNF Week 11

Tight Finish
Lee 104, Tighe 100- Lee sneaks past a resolute Tighe and maintains the pace for a playoff spot.

MNF Late Night...

Lots of activity tonight as all games remain in the balance, some more so than others.

Concannon 83, Curran 67 (Gronk, Brady, Welker)
TMac 108 (Breaston), Nemo 74 (Bowe, McCluster, Branch)
Brett 72, Thompson 62 (Palko)

MNF Game of the Week
Malinn 104, DFlam 89 (Hernandez, Baldwin)

With Malinn looking at a potential exit DFlam needs solid showing from one of two pass catchers.  Otherwise, it could be a six-horse sprint to the finish with just three games remaining.

Roster Update

Keeper Roster Tracker 2011

Updated November 17, 2011, 10am EST

NOTE: Dollar amount are keeper prices or auction values

NOTE: ‘V’ indicates veteran selected during rookie draft

NOTE: ‘R’ indicates rookie selected during rookie draft

NOTE: ‘(V)’ indicates waiver addition in the post-draft, pre-week 1 period (thus keeper eligible)

NOTE: ‘R’, ‘V’, ‘(V)’ players will have salaries of $0 (-$5) but this will not be noted below

NOTE: ‘*’ indicates a player has been kept for a season

NOTE: ‘**’ indicates a player has been kept for two consecutive seasons and is keeper ineligible

2012 Draft Choices- Traded (pre-auction)

Tighe has traded a 2nd and 3rd to DFlam

TMac has traded a 2nd to Concannon

Traded (during auction)

Curran has traded a 2nd to Lee

DFlam has traded a 1st to Thompson

Traded (post auction)

To be updated upon league-wide confirmation

Brett

QB

Matt Schaub, $23

*Sam Bradford, $2

*Ryan Fitzpatrick, $2

RB

Brandon Jacobs, $2 (-$3)

*Michael Bush, $2

Jahvid Best, $0 (-$1)

James Starks, $0 (-$5)

Ben Tate, $0 (-$5)

Mark Ingram, R

DeMarco Murray, R

Jaquizz Rodgers, R

Alex Green, R

Dion Lewis, R

Taiwan Jones, R

Justin Forsett, V

WR

Reggie Wayne, $12

*Austin Collie, $3

Roy Williams, $2 (-$3)

Johnny Knox, $2 (-$3)

Andre Roberts, V

Jacoby Ford, V

Antonio Brown (V)

Denarious Moore, R

TE

Jason Witten, $6

Injured Reserve

RB Tim Hightower, $6

RB Brandon Jackson, $0 (-$1)

WR Danny Amendola, $0 (-$2)

Draft Choices

1st

1st (Tmac)

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

Concannon

QB

Drew Brees, $30

Eli Manning, $18

Tarvaris Jackson, $2 (-$3)

Ryan Mallet, R

Christian Ponder, R

Matt Leinart, V

Chase Daniel, (V)

RB

*Fred Jackson, $5

*Ahmad Bradshaw, $5

Danny Woodhead, $1 (-$4)

Isaac Redman, $1 (-$4)

Beanie Wells, $0

Ryan Mathews, $0 (-$1)

Kendall Hunter, R

WR

Larry Fitzgerald, $19

Miles Austin, $9, Keeper Ineligible

Jordy Nelson, $0 (-$1)

Jacoby Jones, $0 (-$3)

A.J. Green, R

TE

*Jermichael Finley, $6

Lance Kendricks, V

Injured Reserve

WR *Kenny Britt, $3

Draft Choices

1st

2nd

2nd (TMac)

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

Curran

QB

Tom Brady, $30

*Mark Sanchez, $7

Matt Hasselbeck, $3 (-$2)

Rex Grossman, $1 (-$4)

Brian Hoyer, $0 (-$5)

Carson Palmer, V

Kerry Collins, (V)

RB

Frank Gore, $19

Cedric Benson, $9

LaDainian Tomlinson, $1 (-$4)

Ricky Williams, $1 (-$4)

Jason Snelling, $0 (-$2)

Jordan Todman, R

WR

Greg Jennings, $20

Wes Welker, $7

Anquan Boldin, $6

Pierre Garcon, $5

*Devin Hester, $1 (-$2)

Taylor Price, $0 (-$5)

Titus Young, R

Derrick Mason, V

Steve Smith (PHI), (V)

TE

Jermaine Gresham, $0 (-$3)

Rob Gronkowski, $0 (-$2)

Draft Choices

1st

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

DFlam

QB

Joe Flacco, $8

Donovan McNabb, $3 (-$2)

David Garrard, $1 (-$4)

Tim Tebow, $0 (-$2)

Cam Newton, R

Colin Kaepernick, R

Ricky Stanzi, R

RB

Steven Jackson, $20

*Matt Forte, $18

Ryan Grant, $10

Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis, $7

Pierre Thomas, $5

Willis McGahee, $1 (-$4)

WR

Roddy White, $19

Marques Colston, $7

Malcolm Floyd, $2 (-$3)

Braylon Edwards, $1 (-$4)

Mike Williams (TB), $0

Jonathan Baldwin, R

Robert Meachem, V

TE

Dallas Clark, $6

*Jared Cook, $1

Aaron Hernandez, $0 (-$2)

Draft Choices

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

Lee

QB

Aaron Rodgers, $33

Philip Rivers, $30

John Beck, $2 (-$3)

Matt Flynn, $0 (-$5)

Blaine Gabbert, R

RB

Adrian Peterson, $35

*LeSean McCoy, $6

*Marshawn Lynch, $1

LeGarrett Blount, $0 (-$1)

Marion Barber, $0 (-$5)

Stevan Ridley, R

Delone Carter, R

Jonny White, R

Bylal Powell, R

Deji Karim (V)

WR

Calvin Johnson, $20

*Hakeem Nicks, $5

Dez Bryant, $0 (-$2)

Mike Thomas, $0 (-$2)

Kerry Meier, $0 (-$5)

Vincent Brown, R

TE

Marcedes Lewis, $1 (-$4)

Injured Reserve

RB Rashard Jennings, $0 (-$2)

Draft Choices

2nd

2nd (Curran)

3rd

3rd (TMac)

4th

5th

6th

7th

Malinn

QB

Tony Romo, $28

Kevin Kolb, $0 (-$2)

Colt McCoy, $0 (-$2)

Charlie Whitehurst, V

RB

Maurice Jones-Drew, $24

**Ray Rice, $10, Keeper Ineligible

Reggie Bush, $3 (-$2)

Thomas Jones, $0 (-$5)

Shonne Greene, $0

Ryan Torain, V

Javon Ringer, (V)

WR

Brandon Marshall, $9

Brandon Lloyd, $8

*Mike Wallace, $6

Plaxico Burress, $1 (-$4)

Davone Bess, $0 (-$5)

Eddie Royal, $0 (-$3)

Arrelious Benn, $0 (-$4)

Torrey Smith, R

Eric Decker, V

TE

Antonio Gates, $12

Jimmy Graham, $0 (-$3)

Injured Reserve

RB Mikel LeShoure, R

Draft Choices

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

Nemo

QB

*Ben Roethlisberger, $14

Jay Cutler, $9

Chad Henne, $2 (-$3)

Brady Quinn, $0 (-$5)

Andy Dalton, R

Josh Johnson, V

RB

Chris Johnson, $32

Peyton Hillis, $18

**Knowshon Moreno, $6, Keeper Ineligible

Montario Hardesty, $0 (-$5)

WR

Dwayne Bowe, $10

*Sidney Rice, $8

Josh Cribbs, $0 (-$4)

Dexter McCluster, $0 (-$4)

Deion Branch, $0 (-$5)

Nate Burleson, $0 (-$5)

Greg Little, R

Randall Cobb, R

Greg Salas, R

Donald Driver, V

TE

Dustin Keller, $0 (-$5)

Todd Heap, $0 (-$3)

Injured Reserve

WR Jordan Shipley, $0 (-$3)

Draft Choices

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

Thompson

QB

Matt Ryan, $18

Matt Cassel, $13

Kyle Orton, $11

Jake Locker, R

RB

Jonathan Stewart, $10

*Joseph Addai, $8

**Darren McFadden, $6, Keeper Ineligible

Bernard Scott, $0 (-$3)

Toby Gerhart, $0 (-$4)

Darren Sproles, V

WR

Stevie Johnson, $8

*Santana Moss, $5

**Percy Harvin, $5, Keeper Ineligible

*Earl Bennett, $1

*Hines Ward, $1 (-$1)

Early Doucet, $0 (-$4)

Cecil Shorts, R

Terrell Owens, V

Jason Avant, V

TE

**Zach Miller, $5, Keeper Ineligible

Ed Dickson, $0 (-$5)

Brandon Pettigrew, V

Draft Choices

1st

1st (DFlam)

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

Injured Reserve

RB Jamaal Charles, $9, Keeper Ineligible

TE Chris Cooley $0 (-$5)

Tighe

QB

Peyton Manning, $25

*Mike Vick, $5

Jason Campbell, $3 (-$2)

Vince Young, $3 (-$2)

RB

Daniel Thomas, R

*Felix Jones, $2

Tashard Choice, $0 (-$4)

C.J. Spiller, $0 (-$4)

WR

Chad Ochocinco, $7

Steve Smith, $3 (-$2)

*Vincent Jackson, $2 (-$2)

*Michael Crabtree, $1

Mario Manningham, $0 (-$1)

Demariyous Thomas, $0 (-$4)

Emmanuel Sanders, $0 (-$4)

Julio Jones, R

Jerrel Jernigan, R

Clyde Gates, R

TE

Owen Daniels, $3 (-$2)

Draft Choices

1st

1st (Lee)

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

Injured Reserve

RB Ryan Williams, R

TMac

QB

*Josh Freeman, $8

Alex Smith, $2 (-$3)

*Matt Stafford, $1

RB

Michael Turner, $19

*Arian Foster, $16

DeAngelo Williams, $15

**Rashard Mendenhall, $8, Keeper Ineligible

Mike Tolbert, $5

Roy Helu, R

Shane Vereen, R

WR

Andre Johnson, $21

DeSean Jackson, $15

*Jeremy Maclin, $5

*Santonio Holmes, $1 (-$1)

*Lee Evans, $1 (-$2)

Lance Moore, $0 (-$1)

Steve Breaston, V

Jerome Simpson, V

TE

Vernon Davis, $6

*Kellen Winslow, $1 (-$1)

Tony Gonzalez, $0 (-$5)

Greg Olsen, V

Injured Reserve

RB Mike Goodson, V

WR Mike Sims-Walker, $1 (-$4)

TE Tony Moeaki, $0 (-$3)

Draft Choices

4th

5th

6th

7th

MNF Week 10

Over and Out
Malinn 106, Nemo 79
TMac 119,  Tighe 59
Lee 63 (Rodgers, Peterson), Thompson 48 (Harvin)
Curran 86 (Jennings), DFlam 81

Malin eases past Nemo but a CJ outburst could see him knock off some top teams late in the season...TMac runs past Tighe, with or without a team meeting...What a sorry spectacle Lee-Thompson was, is, and should be tonight...Curran takes a big win over DFlam as his Patriots return to form.

MNF Game of the Week
Concannon 97 (The White Guy, Finley), Brett 78 (Starks)

A couple of different lineup decisions could have profoundly impacted this one but as things stand Brett will need a serious bit of running from Starks to get this one back.  

MNF Week 9

Hi,

Please read below if you have not already done so and thanks for the feedback from those who've sent it.  I am looking for more specific comments on a lottery-cup and also am curious if anyone is against setting the keeper salary formula at 30 points per $1 so let me know on those two points.

Mostly done...
DFlam 89 (Forte), Brett 81
Concannon 90, TMac 84 (Jackson & Maclin)
Lee 104 (McCoy), Nemo 78
Curran 108, Thompson 68

- DFlam continues a fine season with Forte looking add some extra gloss
-Concannon with his worst week so far and likely to go down to either of the Eagle receivers
-Lee to run up the score tonight via McCoy
-Thompson was punished by hobbled players taking it easy but it was unlikely to help against another strong showing from Curran

MNF Game of the Week
Malinn 108, Tighe 96 (Vick)

A big one here as Tighe looks likely to deliver what could be the death blow to Malinn's 2011 hopes.  Barring injury, the money is on Vick to have these points in the bag by game's end.

State of the League- November 2, 2011

Hi,

Spent a lot of time thinking during these last couple of days about how the league has been going over the last two months.  In my mind, it has been a great season for both PBR and the league and I am looking forward to the big events coming up- playoff race, Superbowl, and the Luck Lottery. 

But, there have been some issues that bothered me significantly over the past month that I feel must be addressed.  In particular, some of these things are getting worse, in my mind, not better, and it seems the time to address them.  To be fair, in many cases teams have simply been responding in their own best interests and that is perfectly fine with me and should be with the rest of the league.  In these cases I have determined that I have been at fault for structuring the league to allow these issues to crop up and with your thinking, input, and cooperation I hope we can prevent these from impacting the league in future seasons.

The biggest cause for dissatisfaction, I feel, is the gap that exists in many of our minds over what constitutes the minimum level of effort necessary to run a team in this league.  I know that my standards for myself are high and that I am genuinely insulted when another team in this league does not maintain that same standard in roster management, trade talks, free agent bidding, and so on.  The problem is that I am in no position to really use this to judge how things have been going and, as not one you are the commissioner, you all are not in that position, either.  I suppose the quickest way to say it is that everyone has a style of ownership and that imposing my own standards on another is ridiculous and beyond my role in this league.

So, my goals today are to share my concerns, figure out the source of the various problems, and propose some solutions.  After reading, I hope everyone thinks over some things and can find a minute to provide input, whether to the league as a whole or to me directly.  I am not here to point figures, make personal attacks, or generally take offense to any one style or decision made this year.  Please try to keep in mind that I am looking at this more from a league-overview style and not as a fellow owner of a team in the league.

The first and most significant issue I have at the moment is that, for a league with ten teams and nine starters per team, there have been less than ninety starters, consistently, for the last few weeks.  It has happened before and it will happen again and I understand that things happen that are between one and one hundred times more important than the W/R position in our lives.  There is simply no explanation necessary in that scenario- just let me know something happened, I’ll make the right decision, and we all go on our merry way.  However, when it happens over and over with multiple teams it is a problem and it needs to be addressed.

The first thing, I feel, is that this is almost entirely my fault.  At the start of the season, I noticed the NFL had adjusted the bye week formula and made the appropriate changes to the NFFL schedule skeleton.  This did not, for whatever reason, prompt me to re-think how the two additional teams on bye would impact our league but it is clear to me now that teams acting in their best interests could end up in a tough spot with the QB2 position.  As teams this year have started just one quarterback from both a tanking position and a playoff chasing position, this is obviously not a simple case of teams dumping guys too soon.  The conclusion is that the NFL just does not have enough QB’s for the NFFL.

The solution is fairly simple- convert QB2 into a full offensive player (OP) position.  The OP is just what it sounds like- a spot for anyone in any week.  In unusual fashion for our league, I propose to make this change immediately but, given that byes continue into week eleven, I suggest we start in week twelve.  At the very least, I strongly suggest making the change for next year because I feel it does not impact the keeper prices and any team foolish enough to try to win with one quarterback is going to learn a very hard lesson next year.  Again, entirely my fault here because of the structure but I think this adjustment goes a long way toward solving it.

The lesser issue I have is with how teams are managing their rosters.  Again, a tricky issue because I want everyone to know that I understand that we all have different goals and philosophies in terms of how to win in the NFFL.  I also, again, do not feel it is my position impose my own personal standards on others in this league.  There is no ‘moral code’, no ‘way the game should be played’, because that kind of stuff is grade-school garbage and everyone playing in the NFFL should simply play to win, whenever that my be.  However, no matter how I cut it, I do keep encountering situations that I deem entirely unacceptable and, in no attempt to single out one team, I am just going to let it all out.

First, teams that do not fill out the starting lineup should be kicked out of the league.  This was the way it was for many years and the reason why all but two of you are even in this league is because everyone else was sent home.  So, when I log in Monday morning and check the scores for the ‘MNF Update’, it literally just makes me feel sick to see an empty slot or players on the bye sitting in at RB.

Certainly, kicking people out is entirely ridiculous in our league because everyone has a track record of consistency and one bad day does not make a bad owner.  To me, four excellent years is more than enough to vouch for each and every last one of you.  However, there are plenty of options out there and with a QB2 conversion to OP the last possible obstacle should be cleared.  Please do not tempt me into becoming a policeman over the next two months because taking away draft picks, auction (million) dollars, and roster spaces is just beyond my style and a waste of my time.

Second, and in some ways more insulting, is when teams simply avoid making the obvious moves to improve their teams after entering a tank mode.  When a player goes on IR, I expect teams in this league to move guys to IR.  It is no simpler than that.  To me, each roster spot is of a very high value and I just do not understand why others in this league would not share that point of view.  Anyone who wishes to explain why a player on IR is worth more in the active twenty-five man roster than a free agent not named Chad Ochocinco is free to do so but I certainly hope no one attempts to waste my time in such a manner. 

In addition, the teams that just sit out the FA auction simply boggle my mind.  I know that the urge exists to retain guys for keeper purposes and making the right bid is a difficult process but if a team can go eight weeks into the season without making a significant move in free agency I have to seriously question that team’s purpose for being in the league.

The reason why this last thing bothers me is because of the impact it has on the other nine owners.  One way this impact occurs is by diluting the schedule.  Each off-season, I spend a considerable amount of time trying to make the schedule as balanced as humanely possible without compromising the integrity of a random process but when teams just stop adding players after Tighe makes his now-annual ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ draft selection I might as well just ask Yahoo to churn out their rubbish schedule and punt any interesting concepts like divisions, rivalries, and the week one Super Bowl rematch. 

There is also the issue of tanking, not something that truly concerns me, and the problems that ensue when one team creates the illusion of trying to lose a game by just refusing to bid on their injured starter’s backup or on the most recent nobody that scored ten fantasy points.  These dollars disappear at season’s end so what, exactly, is anyone waiting for?

The final point that ties this whole issue together is that there is a very strong sense of value in having a spot in the NFFL that just does not seem to appreciated in how some of these spots are treated.  When people like Tim Wiseman, who I think would be a wonderful owner for our league if given a second chance, or my brother Sean, who once drafted a team in this league as a midnight fill-in, ask me if they can get a franchise, it is hard to say, ‘Sorry, we are all set with ten guys who sometimes care, sometimes don’t.’  It kills me that some people want into the league twice as much as it seems that some want to stay in it. 

What do I think is the source of this problem?  I am going to start right where the blame should, with me, because I believe the behavior that bothers me is just an exaggerated response to our rule structure.  In looking over the these annoyances I have started to think over our lottery system and how it makes improvement an unnecessary idea for those unlucky teams that are injury-hit, simply mis-drafted, or just suffered from bad luck and are now out of the race.  After all, lose, and be rewarded, or win, enjoy for two seconds, and be punished?  Easy choice.  I think more competition is a good solution for almost any problem of lethargy so here is what I have cooked up for you guys to think over.

First, we flatten the lottery.  At this point, we start at ten chances and work our way down by league place to one chance for the Super Bowl winner.  My idea is to separate the league into three sections: no playoffs, playoffs, champion.  The champion retains his one chance.  The playoff teams earn three chances, the average of what they currently earn.  The remaining forty-five of fifty-five chances are divided somewhat evenly among the rest. 

The wrinkle I want to add is to have a tournament for those six out of the playoffs from weeks 15 to 17.  Divided evenly, each team could receive seven chances for the first round with the winner of the tournament receiving three.  The tournament could be stacked a little more and each team could receive six chances, double of each of the playoff teams, with nine available in some format through the tournament.  Keep in mind that each chance is about 2% for the #1 pick so winning three additional chances is far from insignificant.  This is a brand-new idea, a ‘fetus’ as Malinn once described Lee, and therefore I am looking for input from any and all. 

Second?  There is none.  By using this tournament, teams can be free to tank at the cost of potentially missing out on improving draft position.  Teams would also be much more likely to bid on free agents in-season, preventing some of those early over-spenders from ‘getting out of jail’ by not having a proper bidding process.  And there is tremendous value in having the lottery playoffs to look forward to for those bad-luck teams, much more so than previously existed with the cute but perhaps irrelevant League Cup.

In short, the issue that I have at the moment is that it seems teams take a long-view to the season and ignore the idea of trying to assemble the best possible lineup each week.  With just this one adjustment, teams will need a functional roster at season’s end whether they make the playoffs or not.  At this point, if you still want to tank it, if you still want to sit around and wait for next year, be my guest and pick fifth.

Now, just to wrap up, I nor anyone else should have any issue with the trades that have happened of late, unless the other guy was drunk and you were driving.  Teams looking to win now get this year’s guy, teams that are out of the race get next year’s guys. Problems with that type of thinking are out of line, in my opinion.  That is life in the NFFL and until my good friend, Commissioner Goodell, overturns the Palmer trade to Oakland I will refrain from taking a similar stance in this league. The issue, again, from my end is the lack of interest in filling in some of those holes this year, whether literally in the starting lineup sense or more broadly in terms of not buying free agents, not using the IR, not communicating with the league, and so on.  Please weigh in with your thoughts.

A couple of final clean up points, some ideas for further simplification of the NFFL Rulebook…

-A set number of fantasy points per dollar for keepers (Thirty points per $1?).  No need to confuse everyone with a new number each year and my quick research shows that thirty is about the number, each year. 

-Eliminate the PUP list.  Just one more annoyance for me and if the player is good enough to stash we have twenty-five spots waiting to be utilized.

-A re-think of the League Cup.  It was a fun experiment but it may have run the course.  Any ideas?  If this lottery tournament gets off the ground it is probably redundant.  My favorite idea is the ‘Rookie Cup’ where the participation is limited to those players selected in rookie drafts. 

Please also feel free to add input regarding any specific rules or ideas that need simplifying.  The time is now, to be honest, because I think we are reaching the point as a league where major changes are going to be harder and harder to realistically deal with.

Thanks for reading, all.  As you read, please remember that I have what I could call ‘the toughest job in fantasy football’- finding a way to improve this particular league.  It would not be that way without the strength of ownership that has remained intact over five years and it certainly will not remain that way if things start to slip and slide toward a public-league mentality. 

Keep me updated on how you react to some of my comments.

Tim