NFFL Post Season Preview, Part I
Hi all,
The conclusion to another fine NFFL season approaches. This year, time has been a limiting
constraint on my involvement with the usual publications, updates, and
etc. Hopefully, everyone has been
satisfied thus far with the update via email thread, the new and improved POWER
RANKINGS via Tighe and Malinn, and my attempts to make a trade with you on
deadline weekend.
However, the time of the year calls for a return to serious
‘publications’. Without further ado,
then, a tentative schedule for what is coming up:
*Wk13- Preview teams 5-8, luck analysis, position breakdown
*Wk14- Preview teams 1-4, rookie draft lookback
*Wk15- Preview teams 9-12, playoff preview, auction lookback
*Wk16- Super Bowl preview
*Wk17- Super Bowl recap, #1 pick tournament preview, League
Cup description
*Postseason- keeper analysis, draft preview, PBR super bowl
parade, official league rulebook, new NFFL podcast…lots of good stuff coming
Ranting and raving by the commissioner will occur on a
regular and unscheduled basis in each of the publications above.
2013 NFFL Luck Analysis
One of my favorite ideas, quite frankly, ever, the luck
analysis is back for another exciting round of post-season griping by the
unlucky. Right to it, then.
The luck analysis is done by assuming a perfectly ‘balanced’
schedule. To do this, each team is
ranked, one to twelve, by total score in each of the twelve weeks. The top team in each week is given eleven points,
the next ten, down to a zero for Wiseman, eh hem, the last place finishing team
for the week.
The season total is then added up and divided by
eleven. Why eleven? Because a team scoring the highest every week
would be projected to win exactly twelve games- twelve times eleven, divided by
eleven, equals twelve. In other words,
the luck analysis attempts to project how many games a team should have won
based on the scoring ranking in each week of the year?
Confused? Me
too. Let’s just look at the stupid
numbers.
2013 NFFL Luck Rankings
1. Concannon: +2.82 wins above expected
T-2. Nemo and Thompson: +0.95
4. Wiseman: +0.91
5. Sean: +0.45
T-6: Lee and Brett: +0.05
8. TMac: -0.68
T-9: Tighe and Malinn: -0.91
11. DFlam: -1.82
12. Curran: -1.86 wins below expected
Reaction
*Whoa, commish! PBR’s Cinderella season is confirmed, a
staggering amount of fluke playing into a 10-2 record and pole-position for the
#1 seed. Over the final four weeks, or
post Foster, as we call it here at PBR headquarters, the expected win number
was just above one- and a 3-1 record was posted. Look for the playoff pack to hungrily eye an
‘underdog’ slot against this stumbling farce of a top team.
*Tighe and Malinn are likely to feel slightly aggrieved with
a low luck rating. It is a tale of two
games, in reality- a difficult week 11 loss to Brett as second-top scorer
impacting Malinn and a now-massive week 7 loss to Concannon despite being
second-top scorer for Tighe being the prime contributor to the rating.
*Luck rating tends to pull toward the middle, meaning teams
with ‘bad luck’ at the bottom, such as Curran, is more of a statistical
expectation rather than a true measure of bad luck. Same, in a sense, with a ‘good luck’ team
toward the top. It is therefore worth
congratulating Sean on earning a horrendous opening season, as well as again
acknowledging an unusually unfortunate slate for Tighe and Malinn.
*DFlam, a game and a half out of the playoffs, will surely
look at the near three-game expectation gap between his squad and Nemo and
surely shake his head while he pursues lottery balls in the next two weeks. Flam was generally solid but had a difficult
time in the bye weeks, particularly with Kaepernick reeling.
*It is interesting to note that Tighe’s run in weeks 5-10 is
perhaps the most impressive in league history.
His win expectation of nearly six- only two weeks not as top scorer,
during which he was second scorer both times- is likely the closest to a
perfect mark over a month and half that we have had in this league.
*Malinn has rolled the last two weeks but Brett has led the
league in scoring over the last three, at least in terms of relative
position. The surging squad will be a
very tough out in the expanded playoff format.
Position Breakdown
Thought I would add this year a little thing I usually do on
my own- just a run through of the positions and how teams are doing (or have
done) so far this year.
Quarterback
The value of QB has never been higher here with the new flex
position accounting for an increase in teams.
To no one’s surprise, Manning and Brees have led the way. Rivers, for Nemo, has been the biggest
surprise, at a tie for fourth in average scoring.
In our league, the top four sit solid at this position-
Malinn carries some risk with Big Ben but he has been solid and can be buoyed
by Manning. Concannon’s deal for Wilson
may be a huge move- the upgrade over Kellen Clemens is difficult to
describe. Tighe is OK if RGIII holds up,
Lee if Rodgers returns.
Wide Receiver
Shockingly, Calvin Johnson leads the way, and by a massive
margin. Brett has the top corps here-
Gordon and Brown following up as borderline WR1 level players making for a
formidable trio.
Julio Jones sits third, a reminder of what could have been
for injury-bit Tighe, while Blackmon sits as a #1, another bitter pill for
Tighe to swallow. Thomas and D-Jax are
holding down the fort in that duo’s absence.
Surprises are a little limited here- it may be Alshon
Jeffrey, Concannon’s young Bears WR.
Roddy White has so far been the clear biggest bust at the position.
Running Back
Of the top nine projected, five are busts or injured-
Martin, Spiller, Rice, Foster, Richardson.
Tighe’s ability to extract himself from Spiller and get value could
prove the difference when compared to Concannon and Malinn being stuck with
dead weight here in Foster, T-Rich. Other
bust candidates include Wilson, S-Jax, and the Stevan ‘Hands’ Ridley.
Of the surprise performers, Stacy and Lacy have paced the
rookies while Moreno is the clear veteran choice. Andre Brown is also off to a promising start,
post injury, giving Malinn a strong starting trio.
Lee would be in much better shape if Morris ever scored a
TD, while Bush has been strong but gimpy.
Fred Jackson has fallen off a bit after a good start and Mathews looks
to be back to his injured ways.
Tight End
Graham and Gronk, Gronk and Graham. Both guys are dominant and both have had
injury woes this year. Thomas has been
the clear surprise man while Fred Davis and Kyle Rudolph have been minor flops
at a consistent position. Cameron has
fallen off a bit after a strong start amid QB issues in Cleveland but looks
like one for the future.
Lee, he of the multiple tight end sets, surely knows that
his guys average about seven points a game, a fairly useless number. His insistence on losing with these men in
his lineup will be a treat for the many in this league who seek to see his
season end in spectacular fashion.
Team Analysis
Brett
The #5 seed, Brett has been one of the league's most
consistent units this season. Dipping to
a low of 73 just once, Brett has more or less hovered right around the 100 mark
through the rest of the year. Led by star QB Luck and a trio of top WRs-
Megatron, Gordon, and Antonio Brown- Brett looks a good bet to maintain a
steady point total in the playoff weeks- a low floor, in other words.
At his other positions, Murray is returning to form just as
DeAngelo is returning to form, giving him two solid RB options alongside Chris
Johnson. Question marks are emerging at
TE- is Tim Wright the answer?- and at backup QB, where the Cutler injury has
forced Geno Smith (twenty seven TOTAL points in last four weeks) into the
spotlight.
MVP- Calvin Johnson
Megatron has lived up to the hype as the highest paid WR in
the league, setting the pace at the position by a wide margin. With Detroit making a real mess of a wide
open NFC North, look for more huge games from the Motor City as we come down
the stretch.
Biggest disappointment- 2013 First Round
Brett, holding three late picks in this summer's draft,
ended up with DeAndre Hopkins, Geno, and Christine Michael. All three of these picks could pan out and it
is 100% true that the future output should be what is measured when discussing
draft success. However, in the context
of this season, not getting anything from these three picks could prove to be
his undoing in the playoffs, particularly if Geno gets a full demotion. Using these picks to trade up or acquire a
veteran is certainly the 'hindisght 20/20' award winner for now.
Key Player- Geno
Hate to keep picking on the guy but Brett has no other
options available at the position. If
Geno goes down, Brett is looking at DeAngelo or Amendola as the all-flex,
reducing him from a 100+ point team to something more in the high 80's. A healthy Cutler could render this one moot-
but no word on that front at the moment.
Deep Sleeper- Bryce Brown
Personally, a big fan of this guy and I think with McCoy
slightly hobbled the chance for season-impacting injury is there. Brown could really slide right into one of
the two flex spots and provide some excitement late in the year, whether for a
Cinderella charge or a number one pick effort.
Mighty Ducks quote- 'Varsity???'
To symbolize the reaction of the squad when seeing Geno back
in the lineup again for the Jets and, as a result, for Brett.
Thompson
The weakest of the four wild-card playoff teams, Thompson
has not cracked 100 points since week 4 except for one heroic effort over Lee
in week 9. His lineup card currently
slots Brandon LaFell, a former PBR draft choice, at the all-flex, bringing
tears to this commissioner's bloodshot eyes.
Other lineup highlights include Jonathan Stewart, fourteen total points
in 2013, and a difficulty in moving Locker and Benjamin to IR, a move that
would free two roster slots.
There are strengths, however, that make Thompson a dangerous
opponent. At RB, Peterson and Lacy are a
potential top-5 duo and capable of scoring 20+ points in any week. Vincent Jackson and Marshall possess the same
threat at WR. However, injury problems
have led, ultimately, to the lack of depth that will doom this squad to an
early exit and a ticket to the #1 pick tournament.
MVP- Eddie Lacy
Because picking AP is boring. Lacy, Thompson's #1 choice, has been a rookie
sensation and consistent top performer since week 5. Lacy will form the core of this squad going
forward and will rank as one of my 'blue-chip' keepers in this offseason's
analysis.
Biggest disappointment- Justin Blackmon
In a rare move, a player no longer on this team earns the
dubious honor. Blackmon's antics cost
Thompson early as he dropped winnable games to Concannon and Wiseman. Then, the
trade return of Pryor has not really worked out and his subsequent
demotion has left a gaping hole at QB2.
The #5 overall pick in our 2012 draft, Blackmon has been both bust and
brilliant but Thompson has been on the wrong end of that double-edged sword.
Key Player- Adrian Peterson
If Thompson is to survive in this tournament, he will need
AP to rush at his 2012 pace. No question
about it. The back is against the wall
at this point with holes all over the flex positions and Thompson will need no
less than a star effort from his star player.
Deep Sleeper- Bernard Pierce
Something is wrong in Baltimore and it may be Ray Rice. If he goes down or is scaled back, an offense
re-designed to suit Pierce could lead to results for the backup in the same way
things have changed in Tampa since the Martin injury. I could see Pierce as a top-15 back in a
full-time role and that type of performance could make a big difference for
Thompson.
Mighty Ducks quote- 'Ducks fly together...'
...particularly when they fly south. Hate to say it, but south is where I see
Thompson's season going this week.
Wiseman/Chessman/Sideman/Cheeseman
Wiseman's return to the league was marked with a
controversial rigged lottery and subsequent selection of Gio Bernard. The pick enraged this commissioner and led to
the first of about twenty-seven PBR trades this year. A promising start was derailed with tight
losses in weeks 5 and 6 and of late Wiseman has struggled, posting a
diminishing score in each of the final three weeks. This slide culminated in a 67 during rivalry
week.
Wiseman has threatened to dismantle at various points and
did make a minor tank move, shipping off Welker for Cobb. However, the team remains solid enough to
post a playoff threat. Eli, Flacco, and
Smitty (KC) are a good QB trio while Lynch and Bernard are dependable enough at
RB. Pass catching is a real issue with
Cameron and Royal dropping off while others have remained unproductive on the
bench. Without a player making the leap,
Wiseman looks headed toward an early exit.
MVP- Lynch
No shock here. Best
player by far on this team. Alex Smith
has been a nice surprise and Cameron is looking like a solid pick, as well.
Biggest disappointment- Andre Johnson
Hard to pick one here but I think Andre is the guy. A 40-point showing has masked inconsistency
and declining production in a bad offense.
Part of the problem here was a poor auction- less good players to disappoint,
so to speak. I suppose Eli is in the mix
here, as well.
Key player- Nate Burleson
Nate has been out most of the year with a non-football
injury but he returns for a slice of the Lions passing game and should earn his
dough over the rest of the year. His
antics are a perfect fit for the 'Cheesemen' theme.
Deep sleeper- Gio Bernard
In the sense that I could see Bernard moving into a top-5 RB
type of level. The #1 overall pick this
year, Wiseman will need this potential star RB to show off his immense
potential if he is to make any kind of run.
The possibility is there- touches are increasing and Andy Dalton is
really struggling- so Bernard might be the breakout guy in the league coming
off the buy.
Mighty Ducks quote- 'I'll be a Duck'
In honor of Wiseman's ongoing quest to find an appropriate
team name...
Nemo
A 0-4-1 start looked to doom last year's runner up but a
series of savvy moves and a late, late sprint makes Nemo the most intriguing of
the wild-card squads. Three trades
shaped the team- Harvin for Starks was a miss but picking up Welker for an
injured Cobb and redundant Flacco was a big move and getting Cam Newton and MJD
for future pieces, so to speak, was a gamble that is working in Nemo's
favor. In fact, that one trade with TMac
may have made the difference in flipping those two in the standings.
Nemo's team is balanced across the board with mostly average
players. The unit is led by Newton, a
top-5 QB, and is riding the wave of Rivers's surprise season. Rice and MJD may be yesterday's news but
recent flashes hint at the potential for a strong finish. Welker has slowed of late but should be back
into consistent double-digits as the Denver schedule improves. Depth is OK for a sustained run if these
players step up.
MVP- Newton
Biggest Disappointment- Rice
Lumping these two together since a lot has been said
already. Newton has dominated with his athleticism
without relying on it, allowing him to mature as a true QB without losing his
fantasy value. Rice has looked old and
slow- Had Nemo spent his money differently, we could be talking about a
top-four team here.
Key Player- Danny Woodhead
A big surprise for many, Woodhead has been a big contributor
all year. With Mathews hurt again,
Woodhead could be in line to move toward a borderline top-10 RB over the final
weeks of the year.
Deep sleeper- Marquis Goodwin
With 12 and 15 point showings already in the last four
weeks, Goodwin is on the radar. A
returning EJ Manuel should look for this rookie WR and Nemo might be the main
beneficiary. With Nicks and Jones both
shaky WR options, Goodwin could step up into a prominent role late in the year.
Mighty Ducks quote- 'The Panthers have the measles..'
In honor of the late playoff surge, marked by rivals falling
to illness/injuries, a series of savvy moves to acquire talent, and a homage to
the eight-team playoffs...
Final Thoughts
Predictions
Nemo over Brett
Wiseman over Thompson
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