Week 14 Preview

NFFL Week 14 Preview

First up- although I texted the six involved, here are the lottery ball contests for week 14:

Thompson-Malinn

Nemo-Wiseman

DFlam-Curran

NFFL 2014 League Championship Game

Lee v TMac

Current: TMac 41, Lee 8 (TMac has played two players, Lee has played one)

After last season’s attempt fell on its face, we get the vision we had when we incorporated the playoff qualifying system with a week 14 showdown to determine the regular season champion.  TMac- already with two wins over Lee- needs a win to secure the title while Lee can hold on with just a draw.

A strong start Thursday night will have TMac feeling confident ahead of Sunday’s slate.  With a lineup from top to bottom that boasts quality- the weakest link may currently be Rivers after Bennett came through- TMac is the favorite here against a tentative Lee outfit that has slotted in rookies Williams and Adams.

Fortunately for Lee, his squad features a number of boom or bust types- Hilton, Graham, Stafford, Bell- and a pair of explosive performances could overcome the steady consistency of TMac.

Key Player

Lee- Kelvin Benjamin

After a solid start justified the #1 overall selection, Benjamin has slipped behind fellow rookie WRs Evans, Beckham, and Watkins in value.  On the fast turf in New Orleans, Lee will need his star rookie to turn in a big performance to overcome a difficult Thursday start.

TMac- Philip Rivers

After taking an early lead, TMac will need to avoid catastrophic performances to ensure a strong chance at securing the regular season crown.  Rivers could be in danger against a strong Patriots D but his overall quality should shine through and push TMac into first place.

Summary

TMac is off to the early lead but has slightly less favorable matchups than Lee- it should be close and we could see Adams on Monday night needing somewhere between ten and twenty points to win it- but the chance that this gets away from the current leader is high and I like the odds of Rivers putting it out of reach on Sunday night.

Second Qualifying Round

Concannon @ Arbo

Current: Arbo 27, Concannon 17 (Arbo has played one player, Concannon has played two)

Concannon was selected for a second straight week despite his near record shellacking of Wiseman last week.  Murray got Arbo off to a strong start Thursday but a late Jeffrey surge kept the eight seed involved.

Whose team are we on, again?

There is some intrigue in this matchup due to a significant amount of team overlap- Luck/Herron, Shady/Sanchez, Calvin/Joique.  The big one might be Sunday night- Gates/Keenan is a case of two guys battling for the same passes.  So far, Arbo took round one here with Murray swatting Witten by a full  twenty-five points- but the lesson is that one big game from any of the above limits the ability of the other to do the same.

Injury intrigue

Arbo’s squad is relatively injury free at the moment, though the case could be made that Carr plays as if permanently concussed.  Concannon will face a tough call tomorrow on Roddy White- the risk that he sits is significant and the MNF start time makes replacement options impossible.  Will he roll the dice on early stud Sanu or long-time PB Tzar member Decker?

Key Players

Arbo- Andrew Luck

With the early lead, my thought was to look for guys who might disappoint- Luck seems a candidate against a tough Browns outfit on the road.  Arbo has been riding his Luck all season but there is no fluke about his level of play.  However, a poor showing tomorrow could open the door a little for the Tzar to make up ground.

Concannon- Mark Sanchez

A winless start has been followed by five straight wins, four of those with Sanchez at the controls.  A combination of ideal system and ‘lax’ NFFL turnover penalties has vaulted him into the QB1 discussion and turned him into a critical component of the PB Tzar machine.  However, a potential catastrophe looms on the road against surging Seattle and a return to his butt-fumbling Jets days may be beckoning.  A minimum of 15 points is likely required to keep the Tzar alive…

Conclusion

With lots of cross-pollination and tough QB matchups, this playoff contest remains wide open.  However, you cannot take points off the board and an MVP-level showing from Murray Thursday hints at being the difference here.

Sean @ Tighe

Current: Sean 20, Tighe 0 (Only Romo has played)

After the ‘Tannehill Incident’ last Monday, Sean limps forward into the second qualifying round.  Romo has him off to a strong start but Tighe’s entire squad remains to go.

Wide Receiver weakness, tight ends gimpy…

Sean tried to address concerns at WR prior to the trade deadline but opted ultimately to strengthen at TE instead, picking up Olsen for Jordan Mathews.  That trade has since turned against him as Olsen is limping around while Mathews would be a clear start at WR here.  What we have left is former Meatsquad draft choice Charles Johnson, legendary PB Tzar castoff Kenny Britt, and promising rookie John Brown.  Certainly not reminding anyone of the ’99-’01 Rams with those pass catchers…

On the other side, Tighe brings his own banged up tight end in Thomas and trots out a senior Steve Smith Sr. alongside the promising but inconsistent Moncrief.  Slight edge to Tighe here, I think, given that he is using Ryan Mathews as a RB3 over playing another WR- but these are weak units and a big game from any of these players could swing the matchup.

Are you ready for some football?

Lee will be firing up his typewriter Monday to describe the mathematics required for a game featuring Nelson, Rodgers, and Lacy going against the Falcons- a team experienced in handling kick returns, shall we say.  With Rodgers throwing to Nelson, Sean will need a big cushion going into Monday to stand a chance of advancing to his first NFFL playoffs.

Key Players

Tighe- Drew Brees

A relatively disappointing season has many wondering if the Saints QB is marching into the twilight of his QB1 career.  However, a tasty appointment with the Panthers D could see Brees roll back the clock with a vintage performance and take back the early deficit.

Sean- Arian Foster

Again?  Foster looks healthy for now so let’s discuss Fred Jackson instead- a tough showdown with Denver will limit upside but as more or less the feature guy a touchdown and 70-80 yards could be enough to help Sean keep pace with Tighe’s stronger RB corps.

Conclusion

Tough one to call but with greater consistency at QB and better overall RB play I like Tighe to begin his title defense with a solid but unspectacular victory this weekend.

Next week…

The playoffs roll onward with the semi-final stage.  We also open the #1 pick tournament with a full random drawing to determine quarterfinal pairings.