2012 NFFL Midseason Update
Hi all,
Seven down, seven to go in the annual wild goose chase for
the four playoff positions. Where
do we stand at this stage?
Malinn leads the way at 6-1, Lee halting his undefeated
start just this past week. The
over-confident South Korean leads his division with an identical record. Curran, at 5-2, leads the wild card
pack while Nemo, fresh off his own rivalry week (I mean, Rivalry Week) victory
over Tighe shares a 4-3 record with his rival. Concannon, brutalized by a combination of poor luck, bad
lineups moves, and Tony Romo sits at 3-4, one game back of the final playoff
spot. DFlam, Brett, and Thompson
remain committed to 2012 at 2-5 while TMac is down and out at 1-6 despite being
twenty points (or, as I like to say, a Kerry Meier career) off the season
scoring lead.
A closer look at our teams is in order and, as I mentioned,
we will frame it around this past week- an extraordinary rivalry week, as
competitive as any I can recall.
We can start right at the top- a marquee showdown between
the league’s current division leaders.
Malinn fell, 85-74, with a combined ten points from Flacco, Richardson,
Lloyd, and Rudpolph. I point at
these players because I think these gentlemen represent key figures or
positions for this squad the rest of the way.
Flacco, as a QB1, looked very strong early and has looked
very Lee-like of late. That is, he
has looked as I would expect Mr. Jaesung Lee to look if he suited up under
center for the Baltimore Ravens.
Malinn is relatively weak at QB- Big Ben is a strong QB2 but might not
be consistent for the QB1 role and Freeman is unproven but on a hot run- so we
could see some trade activity here in the next few weeks.
Richardson has looked at times to potentially be the star
man in a backfield that appears to be loaded with RB2/RB3 types. However, his injury record so far is of
little cause for optimism as little issues have tended to flare up here and
there. Bush, on bye, has been
solid (and shopped) but LeShoure, Greene, BGE, and Brown are all very
unreliable plays. One disadvantage
in our format is the difficulty in packaging these players for a more proven
runner so we will see how Malinn maneuvers what could be a problem position
down the stretch.
Lloyd and Rudolph are, unlike the names above, more
representative of the position than their own ability here. Lloyd earning zero points highlights an
enviable problem- Malinn has to pick a good WR or two to bench each week. Rudolph is a fine prospect but his
presence only serves to confirm the absence of Graham. Neither issue here is much of a
long-term concern but it is worth keeping an eye on over these next handful of
weeks as Malinn pushes to keep Lee off the league summit.
Lee’s victory was another confirmation for his strategy-
lean on Morris, pretend Ridley was a ‘STUD’, and continue to play two tight
ends to provide blind-side blocking for his quarterbacks. League, this strategy must be beaten
now before it is too late.
On the other hand, winning with McCoy out is somewhat impressive. The Eagle has been less than impressive
so far but a bye week could sort his offense out. Nicks, getting healthy, might be part of the solution to his
dual-threat problem at TE.
*And before Lee protests here- seven, six, seventeen (but
with a zero), thirteen (but with a zero), and eight are the total points in
Lee’s two tight end weeks. This
strategy is not even WORKING RIGHT NOW and Lee continues to employ it. I propose a trade embargo with Lee
involving anyone that fits in the W/T flex…
The key, though, will be Rodgers and Manning. Unlike Malinn, Lee can expect top
eighty points per week with just these two men involved. Injuries are a minor concern for each-
Rodgers, recall, was healthy last year for the first time- but for now the duo
gives Lee a stability that his direct challenger lacks. Lee has done a very good job collecting
WR talent and was savvy to get Powell and Dwyer at RB so there is the potential
for his waiver-wire work to get him some production late. I like his outlook from here to both
make the playoffs and be among the favorites to win it.
Directly below in the standings is Curran, the only winner
this past week with the better record entering the matchup than his
opponent. The team is Pats-heavy,
as we all know (or as I keep saying) but Gore, Palmer, and Wayne provided
plenty of balance this week to keep his team steady. The outrageously weak RB corps has held up so far but
starting Batch was a roll of the dice that underscores the problem. I am also a little concerned about
Gore, who faded late last year, and Turner, who looks more burnt than
burner. A logical trade partner
for Malinn, perhaps, if each could stomach helping direct competitors.
The other open issue here is whether there is a reliable
option at the W/R/T flex or if Curran will need to roll, Lee-style, with two
tight ends. I do not have much
confidence at the moment that a player will step up but the remarkable
consistency level so far- 98, 105, 96, 121, 111, 93, 93- is both unrivaled and
perhaps points at my making too much fuss over little to be concerned
about. That said, the bench is
weak with only Bolden and Titus Young, in my eyes, candidates to emerge as
viable options late. But, as long
as the Pats, Palmer, Gore, and Wayne, a true veteran group, continue ticking
along at this rate, Curran should be right in the mix at year’s end.
On the other side is TMac who has had a strange season so
far. Entering the auction with the
best established keepers in the league, TMac enjoyed an extraordinary run of
bad luck by finishing in the top five of league scoring in four of his first
five losses before turning in 2012 team to rebuild. In fact, this is how bad it was:
Wk1: L, Nemo (led league in scoring)
Wk2: L, DFlam (led league in scoring)
Wk3: L, Malinn (2nd in scoring)
Wk4: L, Lee (led league in scoring)
Wk5: W, Brett (TMac led league in scoring)
Wk6: L, Concannon (led league in scoring)
Result: One win, five losses, holy shit…
I thought I would lay it out to illustrate a point that the
luck analysis will not capture (and I may scrap that feature given that this is
the story of the schedule so far): In five of the six weeks, TMac was involved
with the highest scoring team and finished 1-4 in those weeks. The lone exception was against Malinn,
who finished second, while TMac managed a measley fourth.
So, the question is- did TMac give in too early? My gut says yes, but I started 0-3 and
came back into the mix. I think
the argument to make is that there was still time before the deadline to make a
move and that the deal from DFlam would probably still have been there, perhaps
with a different team, in week 10.
But before we move on to that deal, a quick look at the
roster to see where this team shapes up for 2013. The extra draft pick will help add to a keeper roster that
includes Stafford and Cam Newton for an approximate $30-$40, not great value,
but a big starting point nevertheless.
Richardson and Vereen are speculative but promising at RB while
Hernandez is a likely bet at TE.
Moore and Hankerson are emerging in different ways at WR but my feeling
is Moore, enjoying something of a career, might net more in a trade because he
will be unlikely to hit these heights next year. After that, there is little else of note so we will see if a
trade comes in involving the big names of Cam, Stafford, or Hernandez to
bolster the 2013 prospects.
The trade partner, DFlam, is off to a bad start in the
Foster era after a big loss to Brett.
His 2-5 record is not entirely out of the race but his Rivers-Smith QB2
tandem is not the type to drag teams back into the race. WR remains a strong point with Colston
a big addition and Jennings nearing a return- but will it be too late for the
Packer to make an impact?
Questions remain at RB after Foster with Jackson and McGahee sliding
towards flex plays from RB2 and bench options (such as DeAngelo Williams and
his two carries) looking unlikely to provide relief.
It comes back to the trade and to questions of whether good
value was had for the pieces exchanged.
The tight end swap looks to be a wash of sorts but I do like Hernandez
more. The swap at QB- Cam for
Rivers and Smith- is a certain step down.
The loss is likely offset, perhaps more than offset, with Foster coming
in for the likes of Felix Jones, Williams, or Pierre Thomas but that is
probably less than what was needed given the keeper value lost.
It seems to me that the end result is, from the big picture,
a swap of a first round pick for Colston.
He will be in the third WR spot for the time being with either him or
Bowe making way if Jennings gets healthy (or possibly one of Jackson or
McGahee). I do not think this
represents a good value. Of
course, an eye on 2012 justifies the trade more for DFlam but my feeling is a
better deal could have been had.
The crunch match is coming up with Nemo this week on
Foster’s bye. After that, two
relatively lighter opponents in Thompson and TMac means that DFlam could claw
right back to .500 with a strong showing this week.
On the other side, Brett is up to 2-5 but is likely thinking
ahead. His squad’s heavy and risky
investment in Johnson and Johnson is not providing the required returns and
DeMarco Murray highlights a disappointing group of young RBs. There is plenty here to build around-
Luck is a big-time prospect while Brown, Amendola, Bradford, Murray, Gordon,
Tate, Givens, Moore, and Tannehill all have significant keeper potential so a
couple of deals to get the big names out of town should suffice to make Brett a
viable 2013 contender.
The focus now shifts to the teams making the other trade
made this year, rivals Thompson and Concannon. Last season, these two ended the year with a spectacular
contest that seemed to swing on Romo’s failure to connect with a wide-open
Miles Austin before Eli Manning led a late drive to give Concannon a narrow
victory and the regular season crown.
This year, Romo finished what he started with a dreadful showing that
makes him the biggest goat in a two-point defeat. PBR has been surging of late, a three-game winning streak
evening off a trio of losses to open the year. A win here would have moved him into a three-way tie for the
last playoff spot, four points off the tie-breaker. Instead, Thompson’s massive win keeps PBR a game out and
Thompson in with a pulse.
With healing backs Charles and AP looking strong and Sproles
involved heavily in the Saints aerial circus, Thompson has the RBs to compete
until the end. Questions are at QB
where Quinn, acquired in the trade with Concannon, fills in for injured Cassel
and Locker on Fitzpatrick’s bye.
In order to make a surge for the playoffs, Thompson will need to resolve
the QB issue while hoping to get average production from WRs Fitzpatrick,
Jackson, and Kerley. Combining
those players with his RBs should make him a threat in a wide-open race.
PBR’s resurgence has been fueled by the return to health of
the RBs- Mathews, Bradshaw, and Jackson- in combination with the WRs hitting
the end zone. Brees has been
spectacular, mitigating Romo’s mediocrity, so PBR should remain heavily
involved in the chase from here.
Getting Jennings, even for a couple of weeks, will be a major boost
during the bye weeks.
The final look is at our longest running battle in the
league’s history. Tighe fell to
Nemo in a tough bye week slate, handing starts to Gibson and Wilson, to fall
into a tie at 4-3 with his rival.
Nemo’s impressive win came with five total points scored by big-name
stars Rice and MJD.
Nemo, in fact, will need to find some solution while MJD is
on the shelf. Cobb has stepped up
of late but the hole is significant for a squad built around strong RB
play. The combination of Ryan and
Dalton has been a rock solid foundation and helped overcome some scattered
outings from an improvised WR group.
However, despite impressive early returns, the injury is a massive one-
the first true knockdown hit so far, in my mind- and I think it will be too
much to overcome in the playoff race.
Tighe, the early #1, has stumbled of late despite leading
the point tally. Griffin is an
early fantasy MVP candidate while the WR group has been generally outstanding
but sloppy outings from RB and Gates has proved to make Tighe less of a
consistent threat than once expected.
The surprise component here is that McFadden and Forte have generally
been healthy but have yet to get going so that is something to keep an eye on
as the season moves on.
Power Rankings
Enough tap dancing…#1 Malinn fell meaning a reshuffle is in
order here. As the rules stand,
only the five winners last week are eligible for #1…uh-oh…
10. TMac- Nothing much to add here as TMac has made the
moves to shift his horizon forward.
Key Man: Stafford or Cam- my thoughts here are that either
player could net a big haul if he blows up down the stretch.
Sneaky Keeper: Leonard Hankerson, WR- As Griffin develops,
Hankerson is going to benefit. In
my mind, Garcon is not much of a long term threat here- or short term, for that
matter. Look for the former PBR
draft choice to find himself as a popular sleeper pick in 2013.
Biggest Matchup: Wk9 v Nemo- With Nemo reeling after MJD’s
injury, TMac has a chance to sneak a win here with a relatively bye-free
lineup.
9. Thomposon- Without the quarterbacking horsepower needed,
my feeling is that Thompson fades down the stretch.
Key Man: AP- regaining quickness each week, AP is a
potential team-carrier down the stretch and could help make up for some
shortcomings at QB and WR to move Thompson back into the playoff hunt.
Sneaky Keeper: Bernard Pierce- The Raven runner has looked
solid at times and could become more involved next year if, as some speculate,
the Ravens begin thinking about life after Flacco. Ray Rice, despite being a picture of immaculate health, also
seems due to miss some time soon.
Biggest Matchup: Wk8 v Curran- One week at a time in his
position but with DFlam, Brett, and TMac on deck, a win over Curran could vault
Thompson onto a winning run as he comes out of the bye weeks.
8. Brett- This team is beginning to find a semblance of
balance with Chris Johnson rounding into form but a lack of true star power at
QB and overall unreliability at RB will prevent a week-to-week consistency
needed to claw back into the playoff race.
Key Man: Calvin Johnson- Or, Matthew Stafford. But, either way, Brett will need a
return to form here as Johnson could both drag this team back to the chase or
help him net further pieces for next year’s squad.
Sneaky Keeper: Jacquizz Rodgers- Had a tough time with this
one as Brett has a lot of possible flex-type guys to keep but I think this is
one player who could see a true role expansion next year if the Falcons move
toward a spread-type attack.
Key Matchup: Lee, Wk8- See below.
7. DFlam- After the BIG TRADE a surge forward was expected
but DFlam has stagnated. With
Foster on bye this week, we could see a double-move of the nature that PBR
pulled off two seasons ago when Gates was acquired at a high price only to then
be flipped for pieces.
Key Man: Arian Foster- RB help is certainly needed but I
cannot confidently pick a RB2 so I will go the other way and state that DFlam
will likely miss the playoffs unless Foster finishes the year as the far and
away #1 RB.
Sneaky Keeper: Nick Foles- Colin Kaepernick seems logical
but Foles is the sneaky play if the Eagles opt to go with an overhaul of the
organization. Andy Reid has a fine
history of development at this position, further enhancing Foles’s stock.
Key Matchup: Nemo, Wk8- Must win.
6. Nemo- The injury to MJD is a brutal one that offsets any
positive Packer related news for this week. Still firmly in the hunt, the search for a replacement RB
should be in full swing.
Key Man: Andy Dalton- With MJD limping Nemo will need a new
source of consistency and it should come from this man. The second-year Red Rocket will need to
find ways to score points on a week-to-week basis to keep Nemo in the chase.
Sneaky Keeper: Mike Williams- It might be Williams as he
continues his resurgent play in Tampa Bay. A Jennings departure could move Jones into this category as
well.
Key Matchup: Concannon, Wk10- Nemo has a relatively soft
schedule as he does not face a top-two squad until Week 13. Thus, opportunity is there for him to
run off wins in this upcoming stretch.
Beating Concannon, a direct competitor for a wild-card spot, will be a
huge boost forward.
5. Curran- The Patriot-heavy unit will receive its annual
boost soon as the Pats tend to roll from here on out. Post-bye, I expect Curran to be a menace on the league
leaderboards.
Key Man: Frank Gore- Curran lacks a point engine at RB so
the load falls to Gore to continue his fine campaign without a recurrence of
past injury concerns.
Sneaky Keeper: Titus Young- The Lions are about to find out
who is the potential #2 between him and Broyles after the Burleson injury.
Key Matchup: Malinn, Wk10- Lee gets the annual ‘plays Curran
on the Pats bye’ free pass and this scheduling arrangement may decide the
division. As such, a return to
winning ways against Malinn will be crucial to maintain the one-game gap in the
wild-card race.
4. Concannon- PBR took some bad news this week with Nelson
acquiring a hamstring issue. These
things tend to drag and drag- see Austin, Miles, 2011 season- and it is enough
to drop me to this spot.
Key Man: Ryan Mathews- Returning from a bye, the logic is
that the Chargers should now know what to do with a potential top-5 fantasy
RB. They also have a history of
surging after October that I would hope to benefit from here.
Sneaky Keeper: Rashad Jennings- It was a tricky one here as
not many players I would label ‘sneaky’ but I could see Jennings getting a new
job this offseason in a Michael Turner type of move.
Key Matchup: Tighe, Wk8- The schedule is punishin in the
sense that four straight weeks against higher opponents await but that is also
a signal of opportunity. Getting a
win against Tighe will work wonders toward staying the wild-card race because a
loss would open up a two-game gap.
3. Malinn- Malinn drops to the third spot here after falling
to Lee. With Graham out, the
sledding has been a little rough but I think the squad depth is enough to keep
him atop the division.
Key Man: Reggie Bush- Malinn is fairly weak here but Bush is
a very strong performer who could move into RB1 territory as Miami continues
its steady improvement.
Sneaky Keeper: Josh Freeman- A three-dollar man, Freeman is
in line to be keeper eligible at around $6 to $9 next season. Not too bad for a potential top-15
player next season.
Key Matchup: Concannon, Wk9- Malinn has the two-game edge in
the division and a win here would probably knock Concannon out of the running
for good.
2. Tighe- I went head to head with Malinn here and the logic
was that Tighe has a significant edge at QB and a strong edge at RB to offset
the loss at WR and TE.
Key Man: Robert Griffin- Griffin will carry this team as far
as it can go and that is a dangerous proposition given the hits he takes and
his slight build. Last year, Cam
Newton won it for DFlam so there is a precedent here.
Sneaky Keeper: David Wilson- I think he is a top ten RB next
year and, although not particularly sneaky, the magnitude of that prediction
qualifies him here.
Key Matchup: Lee, Wk10- It appears Lee has a soft schedule
so head to head victories will be critical. Two games back, Tighe has a significant chance in week ten
to step in the right direction.
1. Lee- Seventh in points.
Good luck to all this week and hope to be doing these again
REAL SOON.
Tim
